※ 引述《hsiuchuanwin (win)》之銘言： : ※ 引述《liton (歐吉桑留學生)》之銘言： : : You should identify which stage the economy locates in. When the economy : : is recoverying from the bottom of business cycle, the Fed will start to raise : : interest rate. Howeverever, the stock market would go to a bull market. : : The Fed will continue to raise interest rate until parts of economic indices : : show that the economy is turning down. : : As we know, a business cycle take several years. If we run the econometric : : model, we should find a positive relationship.(I guess) : Thanks for correcting my grammar. It is helpful to me. Thank you very much. : A question here is the relationship between interest rate and stock market. : Recently, I read two papers (Rapach et al., 2005; Rapach & Wohar, 2006) : about the predicting stock returns with macro and financial variables. : Using monthly and quarterly data, the empirical results show that the lag of : interest rate can predict the stock returns, and the regression coefficient is : negative and significant. However, the R-squared is pretty low. 1. Stock market is a leading indicator. (about 6 mo.) 2. Buy the second raise, Sell the second cut. 3. FED only cares about bad inflation and market crash. nothing more. --

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