時間:96年3月9日(星期五)上午10:40~11:30 地點:交大綜合一館427室 主講人 黃維婷教授(University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, USA) 講題 Analysis of Local Recurrence and Distant Metastases in Early-Stage Breast Cancer Using a Mixture Markov Model 摘要 The role of local recurrence (LR) in the risk of distant metastases (DM) and survival has been a controversial topic. It is uncertain whether an LR indicates a more biologically aggressive tumor that had been established at inception or it is responsible for an increase in the rate of DM through secondary dissemination. Such knowledge is important in determining the salvage treatment for local recurrence which impacts survival outcomes. Several studies based on large databases have shown evidence to support both explanations. It is likely that such observations were a consequence of mixed patient or tumor subtypes in the population. Therefore, we propose a mixture model of two independent continuous-time multi-state Markov processes to incorporate population heterogeneity. Transition and mixing probabilities will be estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. We will focus on the probability of metastatic dissemination. Extension to examine covariate effects will be included. The methodology is applied using data from 1291 women with Stage I-II breast carcinoma treated with breast-conserving therapy (BCT) at Hospital of University of Pennsylvania between 1977 and 1995. The median follow-up was 8.5 years (range, 1.5-24 years). -- Punk is musical freedom. It's saying, doing and playing what you want. In Webster's terms, 'nirvana' means freedom from pain, suffering and the external world, and that's pretty close to my definition of Punk Rock. Kurt Cobain --

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