[自從退居第二線就沒再碰翻譯，最近發現竟然翻不出來，所以想練習一下] [請大家踴躍鞭打] [原文取自巨亨網 http://news.cnyes.com/content/20111118/KE0EK9EH2D33J.shtml] 全球市況動盪 人債10月虧4% 9成投資被套牢 Global volatility results in 4% loss on RMB-denominated bonds in October; 90% of them under water [under water 我以前只見過房地產領域在用，金融界好像沒在這樣說] 歐洲主權債務面臨違約風險，全球投資市場震盪，早前炙手可熱的點心債 (即離岸人民幣 債券) 亦不能倖免。有債券交易員指出，上半年發行的點心債，目前有 9 成是「蟹貨」( 套牢)，債券價格一度較高位跌逾 6% 。銀行界人士相信，點心債價格尚未見底，散戶宜 待歐債危機進一步惡化，人債息率升，始入市吸納作長線投資。 European sovereign bonds are facing default, causing market volatility that the formerly hot Dimsum Bonds (i.e. RMB-denominated offshore bonds) were not immune to. Some bond traders have pointed out that out of all dimsum bonds issued in 1H11, 90% of them are "under water," and some have seen their prices drop as much as 6% from their peak in that timeframe. Banking professionals believe that dimsum bond prices have yet to hit bottom, and that only if the Eurobond crisis worsens, and the yields of RMB-denominated bonds trend up, should retail investors enter the market with a view towards holding for the long term. [Typo: sovereign] [yield ... trends 改為 yields ... trend] [吸納 跟 enter the market 還是有差，但想不出來] 香港《明報》報導，根據中銀香港 (2388-HK) 的人民幣離岸債券指數，由年初的 100 ， 10 月一度急插至最低 93.9 ，目前稍為回穩至 96.2 ，但與 6 月時高峰 102.9 相比， 跌了 6.7 ，而年初至今則跌約 3.8% 。工銀亞洲投資管理基金經理胡婉敏指出，點心債 缺乏二手市場承接，令其跌勢加劇。然而年初至今有關指數仍跑贏同期恒生指數約 16 個 百分點。 HK's Mingpo reported Bank of China (Hong Kong) (ticker: 2388-HK) statistics as showing that the offshore RMB-denominated bond index nosedived from 100 at the beginning of the year to a trough of 93.9, but has since rebounded slightly to 96.2, still 6.7 points lower than the index's June peak of 102.9, for a YTD decline of 3.8%. ICBC's Asia Funds manager Ms. Hu Wanmin pointed out that dimsum bonds lack a secondary market to provide downside support, contributing to its sharp decline, but she also pointed out that its related indices still outperformed the Hang Seng index by about 16 percentage points over the same period. [明報報導的人民幣離岸債劵指數這個部分英文翻的很硬] [急插改為 nosedived] [Hang Seng 竟然打錯，真該切腹] 由於企業購買點心債以買賣為主，故債券價格反映投資收益。至於一般買入點心債的散戶 ，一般以長期持有為主，到期可悉數取回本金，另加利息，不會有資本上的損失，只是失 去了去賺取更高息的機會。 Since most institutions purchase dimsum bonds for trading purposes, its price reflects its ROI potential. Retail investors holding dimsum bonds usually are long-term investors, and would be able to recover their principal plus interest at bond maturity, without loss of investments; the only loss is the opportunity to earn a higher ROR elsewhere. [不知為何原文為企業，institution 為法人，把企業翻成法人其實有點心虛] [capital 更正為 principal 較好，但 plus 留下，第二個 capital 改為 investments] [債劵怎麼會有 interest at maturity? 感覺是記者亂寫] [而且本篇以 Sovereign bonds 違約危機開講，到這裡卻要讀者安心，因為 dimsum bonds 可以 recover ... without loss of principal? 連 sovereign bonds 都會違約了， dimsum bonds 卻可以安心食用？真是 XD] 點心債價近日之所以下跌，主要原因是︰一是離岸人民幣 (CNH) 價格下滑，令其與在岸 人民幣 (CNY) 價出現折讓；二是中國出口轉弱，投資者對人民幣的升值前景轉淡，連帶 點心債的吸引力亦下降；三、歐債危機令環球的投資風險上升。 The recent drop in dimsum bond prices can be attributed to the following: 1) a price decline in offshore RMB (CNH) causing it to appear discounted to onshore RMB (CNY); 2) investors are less expectant of a rise in the RMB owing to weakness in China's exports, and thus dimsum bonds appear less attractive; 3) the Eurobond crisis is increasing risks in investments around the world. 渣打昨日發表報告，調低對人民幣的升值預測，由每季升值 1% 放緩至 0.6% ，主因是國 內外商直接投資減少及通脹放緩，令人民幣的升值壓力降低。渣打預期年底人民幣將會升 至 1 美元兌 6.32 元人民幣，明年底則兌 6.12 ，即 2012 年全年升值 3.1% ，此前估 計為 3.9%。 Standard Chartered issued a report yesterday, lowering its forecast of the RMB uptrend from 1%/Quarter to 0.6%/Quarter, mainly because a slowdown in inflation and decrease in DFI from onshore foreign companies will result in a weakening in the upward pressure on the RMB. Standard Chartered estimates that by EoY2011 RMB should rise to 6.32/USD, and by EoY2012 to 6.12/USD, for a 2012 RMB net uptrend of 3.1%. The previous 2012 estimate was 3.9%. [人民幣的升值壓力 改為 upward pressure on the RMB] 「上半年買入的點心債，目前有 9 成都是輸錢。」交銀香港首席債券交易員李俊傑說， 由於債券價格與孳息率成反比，他表示，點心債的孳息率雖然抽高，但亦未必可以抵消債 券價格的跌幅。 Mr. Lee Junjie, head bond trader of the Bank of Communications (HK) said, "of all dimsum bonds bought in 1H11, 90% of them have lost money." Since the price of a bond is inversely related to its yield, he also mentioned that he does not believe the rising yields of dimsum bonds will offset the declines in prices. 中信銀行國際執行副總裁兼司庫陳鏡沐同意，「(點心債) 現時以公允值入帳，相信都要 輸 8% 至 10% 不等。」至於投資者現時是否應入市執平貨？他指出，由於資金流向仍然 緊張，而且未來仍然具有不明朗因素，「市場還會波動， (債價) 現在肯定未見底。」李 俊傑則認為，如果持點心債作為長線投資，則可考慮購入。 Mr. Chen Jingmu, the International Executive VP and Treasurer of China Citic Bank, agrees with that asessment. "if [dimsum bonds] go on the books at market price now they'll all likely lose about 8-10% in value," he said. As to the question of whether it's the right time for investors to enter the market, Mr. Chen pointed out that since capital flows remain tight and visibilities remain unclear, "the market will remain volatile, and [dimsum bond prices] certainly have not hit bottom at this time." Mr. Lee, however, takes the view that long-term investors may consider entering the market now. 由於升值預期稍遜，市場對點心債的息率要求「正常化」，財政部的人債票面息率 0.6% ，目前市場孳息率 1.5% 。去年開始點心債發行量增加迅速，加上人民幣存款出路少，今 年上半年一般銀行或企業發行 2-3 年期點心債，票面息率低見 2-3% ，視乎企業質素。 With decreasing expectations of a rebound in price, the market is looking towards a "normalization" of yields of dimsum bonds. The coupon rate of a MOF-issued RMB bond is 0.6%, while the market yield is at 1.5%. Since the beginning of last year the issuance of dimsum bonds have increased rapidly, and coupled with a lack of outlets for RMB-denominated deposits, the result is that in 1H11 banks or corporate dimsum bonds carried a coupon rate as low as 2-3%, depending on the quality of the issuing firm. [coupon rate of 的 of 刪除] 李俊傑指，目前票息起碼要加多 1.5-1.75% ，才能吸引投資者。 Mr. Lee believes that the coupon rates of such bonds need to increase by another 1.5-1.75 percentage points to become attractive to investors. [這裡的"票息"仔細想想應該是 coupon rate 而非 yield] -- 'Cause it's a bittersweet symphony, this life Trying to make ends meet, You're a slave to money then you die -Bittersweet Symphony, The Verve --

※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 70.166.3.190 ※ 編輯: tengharold 來自: 72.207.41.220 (11/21 13:14) ※ 編輯: tengharold 來自: 72.207.41.220 (11/21 13:18) ※ 編輯: tengharold 來自: 72.207.41.220 (11/21 13:20) 吸納 = accumulate 說的好，果然一陣子沒碰都忘光了 XD 我看本文時就看成債劵到期時可拿本金加利息，也就是記者把債劵寫成定存那樣。 ※ 編輯: tengharold 來自: 70.166.3.190 (11/22 01:10)