Changing inflation gears …… The recent rise in CPI inflation has provoked fears that China’s monetary growth is out of control and that CPI inflation will soon spread from food to a broader range of goods. We reject this pessimistic assessment. CPI inflation results mainly from supply-side dislocations rather than an increase in aggregate demand. Thus, the 6.5 per cent inflation seen in August (up from 2.2 per cent in January) is likely to be temporary. On the other hand, due to new trends in wages and productivity unrelated to food, the Chinese economy can no longer maintain 0-2 per cent underlying inflation as it did in the 2000-06 period. So while the current high inflation is temporary, a structural shift to 3-5 per cent in the next five years is likely. There are two main pieces of evidence for why current inflation is narrowly based and will abate. First, a breakdown of the CPI shows that the current price surge is due almost entirely to food prices, and particularly pork – the price of which has doubled in the last year mainly because of the blue-ear disease that has ravaged the nation’s swine population. Egg and oil prices have also risen, but this year’s inflation is even narrower than the food-driven inflation of 2004, when grain, egg, meat and oil prices all rose in tandem. No other goods and services prices have shown a significant upward trend. Second is the regional breakdown of CPI. Inflation is highest in poor provinces and lowest in rich provinces. Provinces with lower-than-average inflation have a median per-capita GDP of Rmb18,000, compared with Rmb12,000 for provinces with higher than average inflation. If inflation were really the result of runaway money growth, we would expect to see the most inflation in the provinces with the most money – the rich coastal regions. In fact, the exact opposite is the case. Inflation is lower in rich provinces partly because households there spend a lower proportion of their income on food than poor-province households. Another reason is that the systems for producing and distributing goods are more mature in the rich provinces. As incomes rise, the supply of goods rises easily to meet demand, and inflation does not take off. In poorer provinces, production is less and distribution networks are rickety. When incomes rise, supply bottlenecks mean that prices rise more quickly. The central government has responded to the inflation scare by slapping price controls on government services. Some analysts note that surely this means that inflation is affecting more goods than just food, and the government is beginning to panic. Not really. Food prices are important – making up about a third of the average Chinese household’s shopping basket – and rises are highly visible, because people buy food every day. Even if it believes that food inflation will soon wane, the government has a strong political interest in being seen to be taking action to keep inflation under control. Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008 但實則不然。食品支出平均占中國家庭收入三分之一，其價格固然重要。而且上揚幅度顯 而易見，因為人民每天都要購買食品。儘管食品通膨將會下降的預期心理作祟，政府的強 大的政治利益介入，可見抑制通膨以呈現立竿見影的效果。 想請問最後一段的最後一句該怎麼翻比較好 我覺得我翻的好像怪怪的 求板上神人相助 此篇是個人學校作業 謝謝 --

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