美政府停擺 元大寶華：美債信壓力恐升 10月底國會討論是關鍵！ U.S. government shutdown begins. Yuanta Polaris: the U.S. faces heightened credit pressure, and congressional debate at October's end is essential! 美國陷入財政僵局，白宮已正式宣布聯邦政府進入有秩序的短期停擺階段。在通過預算案 前，聯邦政府僅可以最少的人力運作，約有40%的聯邦員工被要求放無薪假或減少工時， 元大寶華綜合經濟研究院表示，若未來兩黨意識形態爭端激化，將威脅到後續對舉債上限 的協議，並對經濟帶來巨大的衝擊，不排除影響會超過2011年時美債降評事件，除了全年 經濟可能因此減速1個百分點外，金融市場也會出現重大的修正，未來1個月美國債信壓力 將升溫，而10月底國會是否能完成討論，將是關鍵。 The U.S. is immersed in fiscal impasse, and the White House has offically announced an oderly, temporary shutdown of the federal government. Before the budget bill is passed, the federal government has to function only with minimal personnel, and about 40% of federal workers have been asked to take unpaid furloughs or cut working hours. Yuanta Polaris Research Institute said that further intensification of ideological disputes between two parties will threaten subsequent negotiations on debt ceiling and bring huge economic impacts, and it can't be ruled out that the effect will exceed the U.S. credit-rating downgrade in 2011. Except the possibility of a one-percent reduction in economic growth, there will also be a significant financial market correction. Credit pressure will have been heightening for a month, and it is essential whether a congressional debate will have been completed by October's end. 元大寶華指出，聯邦政府已進入有秩序地短期停擺階段，但只要未來兩院協商可盡快於短 時間內尋求交集，並通過法案、恢復正常運作，因不致對經濟帶來反轉性的壓力。 Yuanta Polaris pointed out that the federal government has entered an orderly, temporary shutdown. If agreements can be reached as soon as possible through future negotiations between the two chambers, the bill can be passed, and the functioning of the government can be resumed, it won't bring about a reversive pressure on the economy. 然而，由當前國會政治角力可看出，目前兩黨已脫離財政議題層面討論，且正陷於是否應 該要實施Obamacare的意識形態之爭，導致過去一段時間兩黨間幾乎沒有正面且認真的協 商；假使未來意識形態爭端惡化，將威脅後續對舉債上限的協議。 However, from the current political wrangling in the congress, it can be seen that the two parties have moved away from fiscal issues, and they have plunged into ideological disputes on the enforcement of Obamacare, which lead to the absense of positive and serious bipartisan negotiations over a period of time. If ideological disputes exacerbate further, they will threaten subsequent negotiations on debt ceiling. http://tinyurl.com/nkz8uto --

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