Q: Would you take prospects 16-30 in the 2014 Astros system over the 1-15 prospects of the Astros’ 2010 system? 你會不會拿太空人今年的Top 16-30換2010年的Top 1- 15??? BA: Interesting question. Could the back end of one of the best farm systems in baseball top the front end of one of the worst farm systems in the game? The Astros had the 30th-ranked farm system heading into the 2010 season, but looking back, it was not one of the all-time worst systems. The 2010 Astros had three Top 100 Prospects, with catcher Jason Castro (No. 41), shortstop Jio Mier (No. 71) and righthander Jordan Lyles (No. 91). To compare, the Angels are the 30th-ranked farm system in the Prospect Handbook this year and they have one, possibly two, players in Top 100 Prospects consideration. In fact, I’d argue that the Astros farm system going into the 2008 season, when the club also ranked 30th, was worse than the 2010 edition. That year, catcher J.R. Towles (No. 53) was the only Astros prospect to crack our Top 100. 2010不夠爛 要就玩大一點的2008 XD 2010的BA Top 100有三個Castro, Mier, Lyles 2008的BA Top 100只有一個Towles After Towles, the Astros did have outfielder Michael Bourn (No. 4) and Bud Norris (No. 5) on their Top 10 prospects list, but the system was quite thin with Chris Johnson (No. 13) as the only other Top 30 prospect to go on to have a significant career. Johnson also ranked No. 16 on the Astros’ 2010 list. 不過2008後面有藏了Bourn (#4)和Norris (#5)還有Chris Johnson(#13) So both the Astros’ 2008 and 2010 systems were thin, but each produced a potential star, which makes up for the depth the system lacked. The 2010 Astros list has Castro, who produced a 4.5 WAR season in 2013 while making the American League all-star team. If he can keep that up, the Astros will not be the least productive system from 2010. 簡單的說再怎麼爛前15還是會有砂礫中的大珍珠 The 2008 list had Bourn, who has averaged .277/.342/.375 with 48 steals over the past five seasons, as well as a useful back-end starter in Norris. Both also produced a serviceable third baseman in Johnson. In other words, while the Astros were thin in 2010 (and 2008), it’s going to be hard for the back of this year’s list to produce similarly significant players. I’m not going to list all 15 of those players—sorry, that’s reserved for those who buy the book, which we encourage you to do—but the 16-30 for this year includes useful big league-ready relievers such as Kevin Chapman, potential back-end starters such as Nick Tropeano, Kyle Smith and Kent Emmanuel, longshot power arms Jandel Gustave and Reymin Guduan and high-ceiling position players like Brett Phillips. 基本上今年的Top 16-30有很多的堪用球員 但是要出現像Castro/Bourn這種等級的機率還是很低的 Houston will likely find some future useful big leaguers among that group, but you’d have to be extremely optimistic to believe that any of them will match the production of Castro or Bourn. Given a choice, I’d clearly take the Astros’ 2010 top 15 compared to the 16-30 on this year’s list. 所以當然不要換...... If we reshape the question, however, we might make it more interesting: How about this year’s 11-30 against the 2010 Top 10? 如果以量取勝 改成今年的11-30換2010的Top 10?? The Astros are one of the deepest systems in baseball when it comes to potential everyday players. Rio Ruiz, Max Stassi, Delino Deshields Jr., Josh Hader and Andrew Thurman would have made a lot of Top 10s this year, but they had to be content to sit at 11-15 on this year’s Astros list. 今年的11-15在很多球隊都可以進top 10 所以這樣賭比較有趣 ... [說溜嘴了 11-15有Ruiz, Stassi, Deshield, Harder, Thurman XDD] While that quintet might not match the production of Castro or Bourn, it’s not unrealistic to see the Astros getting one or two everyday regulars out of the group. Add in the depth of the system’s remaining prospects, and that group of 20 against the Top 10 from the 2010 group would be a very close call. Forced to choose, I’d still take the 2010 group because Castro has developed into one of the better catchers in the American League. But I’d be almost equally happy with the current Astros’ 11-30. 想要幹掉Castro和Bourn並不太容易 不過以量取勝今年的這一大包可以累加不少 所以這就讓人難決定了......不過硬要選他還是寧願選一個Castro -- 這篇其實已經是後見之明了..... Castro或許當初BA對他的評價就很不錯 但是當時的BA一定沒有預期Bourn/Norris/Johnson可以長成現在這樣 [Johnson小時候是有的但是越長評價越低 XD 到高階的時候大概就平價普通了] -- prospect還是poespect... Deshield有沒有機會比Bourn好? 有, 但是只是有機會 Ruiz和Stassi加起來不如一個Castro?? 當然不一定 但是還是失敗的機會很高的... Thurman在太空人系統被Dororo化了 去年第40順位的球員... 他也是破百萬簽約金的 XDD 雖然他的tool不是太頂尖 但是可以這麼早被選 也不是沒原因的 他的變速球投的很好 ... make up也很好 所以他可能會比預期的早被叫上來 他的control遠優於command... 這個若是能微調 會是個不錯的中後段輪值 --

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