Q: Would you take prospects 16-30 in the 2014 Astros system over the 1-15 prospects of the Astros’ 2010 system? 你会不会拿太空人今年的Top 16-30换2010年的Top 1- 15??? BA: Interesting question. Could the back end of one of the best farm systems in baseball top the front end of one of the worst farm systems in the game? The Astros had the 30th-ranked farm system heading into the 2010 season, but looking back, it was not one of the all-time worst systems. The 2010 Astros had three Top 100 Prospects, with catcher Jason Castro (No. 41), shortstop Jio Mier (No. 71) and righthander Jordan Lyles (No. 91). To compare, the Angels are the 30th-ranked farm system in the Prospect Handbook this year and they have one, possibly two, players in Top 100 Prospects consideration. In fact, I’d argue that the Astros farm system going into the 2008 season, when the club also ranked 30th, was worse than the 2010 edition. That year, catcher J.R. Towles (No. 53) was the only Astros prospect to crack our Top 100. 2010不够烂 要就玩大一点的2008 XD 2010的BA Top 100有三个Castro, Mier, Lyles 2008的BA Top 100只有一个Towles After Towles, the Astros did have outfielder Michael Bourn (No. 4) and Bud Norris (No. 5) on their Top 10 prospects list, but the system was quite thin with Chris Johnson (No. 13) as the only other Top 30 prospect to go on to have a significant career. Johnson also ranked No. 16 on the Astros’ 2010 list. 不过2008後面有藏了Bourn (#4)和Norris (#5)还有Chris Johnson(#13) So both the Astros’ 2008 and 2010 systems were thin, but each produced a potential star, which makes up for the depth the system lacked. The 2010 Astros list has Castro, who produced a 4.5 WAR season in 2013 while making the American League all-star team. If he can keep that up, the Astros will not be the least productive system from 2010. 简单的说再怎麽烂前15还是会有砂砾中的大珍珠 The 2008 list had Bourn, who has averaged .277/.342/.375 with 48 steals over the past five seasons, as well as a useful back-end starter in Norris. Both also produced a serviceable third baseman in Johnson. In other words, while the Astros were thin in 2010 (and 2008), it’s going to be hard for the back of this year’s list to produce similarly significant players. I’m not going to list all 15 of those players—sorry, that’s reserved for those who buy the book, which we encourage you to do—but the 16-30 for this year includes useful big league-ready relievers such as Kevin Chapman, potential back-end starters such as Nick Tropeano, Kyle Smith and Kent Emmanuel, longshot power arms Jandel Gustave and Reymin Guduan and high-ceiling position players like Brett Phillips. 基本上今年的Top 16-30有很多的堪用球员 但是要出现像Castro/Bourn这种等级的机率还是很低的 Houston will likely find some future useful big leaguers among that group, but you’d have to be extremely optimistic to believe that any of them will match the production of Castro or Bourn. Given a choice, I’d clearly take the Astros’ 2010 top 15 compared to the 16-30 on this year’s list. 所以当然不要换...... If we reshape the question, however, we might make it more interesting: How about this year’s 11-30 against the 2010 Top 10? 如果以量取胜 改成今年的11-30换2010的Top 10?? The Astros are one of the deepest systems in baseball when it comes to potential everyday players. Rio Ruiz, Max Stassi, Delino Deshields Jr., Josh Hader and Andrew Thurman would have made a lot of Top 10s this year, but they had to be content to sit at 11-15 on this year’s Astros list. 今年的11-15在很多球队都可以进top 10 所以这样赌比较有趣 ... [说溜嘴了 11-15有Ruiz, Stassi, Deshield, Harder, Thurman XDD] While that quintet might not match the production of Castro or Bourn, it’s not unrealistic to see the Astros getting one or two everyday regulars out of the group. Add in the depth of the system’s remaining prospects, and that group of 20 against the Top 10 from the 2010 group would be a very close call. Forced to choose, I’d still take the 2010 group because Castro has developed into one of the better catchers in the American League. But I’d be almost equally happy with the current Astros’ 11-30. 想要干掉Castro和Bourn并不太容易 不过以量取胜今年的这一大包可以累加不少 所以这就让人难决定了......不过硬要选他还是宁愿选一个Castro -- 这篇其实已经是後见之明了..... Castro或许当初BA对他的评价就很不错 但是当时的BA一定没有预期Bourn/Norris/Johnson可以长成现在这样 [Johnson小时候是有的但是越长评价越低 XD 到高阶的时候大概就平价普通了] -- prospect还是poespect... Deshield有没有机会比Bourn好? 有, 但是只是有机会 Ruiz和Stassi加起来不如一个Castro?? 当然不一定 但是还是失败的机会很高的... Thurman在太空人系统被Dororo化了 去年第40顺位的球员... 他也是破百万签约金的 XDD 虽然他的tool不是太顶尖 但是可以这麽早被选 也不是没原因的 他的变速球投的很好 ... make up也很好 所以他可能会比预期的早被叫上来 他的control远优於command... 这个若是能微调 会是个不错的中後段轮值 --

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