※ 引述《IronChef (Schadenfreude)》之銘言： : ※ 引述《matrixz (菊地)》之銘言： : : GOD 你怎麼會有這種觀念 : : 以前一直認為你是大大 : : 講出來的東西應該算有些內容 : : 可是你的觀念真的太怪異了 : : 這幾天看了有點受不了 : : 說什麼打擊不要揮大棒 : : 球碰出去就好..............(MY GOD) : : 轉國內新聞進來這 : : 排棒次................(中職隊板鄉民最愛的習慣) : : 現在還來個九一連線 : It's not necessarily ISOLATED to the MLB. Tony La Russa has done this lots : of times. He'd put his pitchers in the 8th spot and a fielding player in the : 9th spot. Of course, in yesterday's game, his pitchers should have been hitting : 4th. : : 套一句板友對你說的,中職餘毒太深了 : : 不要把那些東西帶來這邊 : : 攻擊陣容不要什麼第二攻擊小組 : : 也沒有什麼兩個階段 : : 更可怕的是還來個九一連線 : : Youkilis就是前三棒的料 : : 放到第九棒是在幹麻 : : 這個位子國聯都拿投手來auto-out : : 怎麼還會擺431/497/317勒 : : 下次要寫什麼分析,麻煩請先三思啦!! : There are lots of batting order studies. They're on the internet. You can : find them using this tool called Google. : "Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2 and #4 slots. Your : fourth- and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and : #2 slots will have players with more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots. : From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality." : Our 3 best hitters: Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, and Mike Lowell (for now) : Now, had somebody suggested that say Manny Ramirez hit LEADOFF, you'd be : all over his ass like stink on cheese. : From the same writers: : "If we go back to the real world of baseball, we realize that you can't hide a : batter. The best you can do is to defer him to the bottom of the batting : order. But even batting ninth, he will eventually come up" : Eventually Alex Gonzalez is coming up to hit. Just how often. : Now, this is one position on batting order : Another position on batting order: : "Batting order doesn't matter." : I believe the official Bill James party line on batting order is this: : (this is stolen from our good friend Debugger) : "不過到目前為止這個討論分成兩派。一派包含了酒吧裡的看球專家、走傳統路線的體育 : 作家、躺在沙發上看電視的球迷、call-in 節目中常打電話進去表示意見的人，這些人 : 相信打擊順序很重要。另一派則是真正對這個問題下過功夫，這些人在作過研究之後下 : 了結論，說不管打序怎麼安排，最後的得分數都會是差不多。至於要相信哪一派的說法 : ，你可以自己選擇。" 有點好奇，如果把Manny跟老爹擺在第八跟第九棒結果還是一樣嘛？ 或者是把上壘率低的擺前面，或者是把棒次變成一個強打前後夾著兩個弱棒 類似這種比較極端的排法那結果還會一樣嘛？ 一直以來數據有他迷人的地方但是有時候我們去思考棒球的本質才會發現 這個運動會讓我們這麼著迷的原因在於他會發生很多數據無法估算到的地方 好比2004年我們拿到冠軍那年的美聯冠軍賽！ 話又說回來，我覺得上壘率的思考與其說是上壘率不如說是出局率反解 因此上壘率高=出局率低=增加單局攻擊機會 這樣想來上壘率的思考真的是針對棒球單局三出局的規則做考量 也難怪這樣的數據讓人那麼著迷 : Believe what you like. I buy the "doesn't matter" bit because it helps : reassure me that it doesn't matter that our manager is an idiot. : My personal belief is that yes, it does matter, for a good team on the : threshold. An optimal batting order over a "decent" batting order, optimizes : what, 5 extra runs a season? Yes, that makes or breaks a season, but only : with a decent team like the Red Sox. If you're the Royals, it wouldn't : matter anyway, 5 runs isn't stopping you from taking the 1st overall position : in next's entry draft. Hopefully they'll spend money on a high school pitcher : with gas. : Kind of like your motehr smoking while preganant with you, or not smoking. : It would have helped that your mother DIDN'T smoke while she was pregnant, : but you were going to be fucking retarded ANYWAY regardless of the smoking. : You didn't have chance. Just like the Royals --

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