※ 引述《IronChef (Schadenfreude)》之铭言： : ※ 引述《matrixz (菊地)》之铭言： : : GOD 你怎麽会有这种观念 : : 以前一直认为你是大大 : : 讲出来的东西应该算有些内容 : : 可是你的观念真的太怪异了 : : 这几天看了有点受不了 : : 说什麽打击不要挥大棒 : : 球碰出去就好..............(MY GOD) : : 转国内新闻进来这 : : 排棒次................(中职队板乡民最爱的习惯) : : 现在还来个九一连线 : It's not necessarily ISOLATED to the MLB. Tony La Russa has done this lots : of times. He'd put his pitchers in the 8th spot and a fielding player in the : 9th spot. Of course, in yesterday's game, his pitchers should have been hitting : 4th. : : 套一句板友对你说的,中职余毒太深了 : : 不要把那些东西带来这边 : : 攻击阵容不要什麽第二攻击小组 : : 也没有什麽两个阶段 : : 更可怕的是还来个九一连线 : : Youkilis就是前三棒的料 : : 放到第九棒是在干麻 : : 这个位子国联都拿投手来auto-out : : 怎麽还会摆431/497/317勒 : : 下次要写什麽分析,麻烦请先三思啦!! : There are lots of batting order studies. They're on the internet. You can : find them using this tool called Google. : "Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2 and #4 slots. Your : fourth- and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and : #2 slots will have players with more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots. : From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality." : Our 3 best hitters: Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, and Mike Lowell (for now) : Now, had somebody suggested that say Manny Ramirez hit LEADOFF, you'd be : all over his ass like stink on cheese. : From the same writers: : "If we go back to the real world of baseball, we realize that you can't hide a : batter. The best you can do is to defer him to the bottom of the batting : order. But even batting ninth, he will eventually come up" : Eventually Alex Gonzalez is coming up to hit. Just how often. : Now, this is one position on batting order : Another position on batting order: : "Batting order doesn't matter." : I believe the official Bill James party line on batting order is this: : (this is stolen from our good friend Debugger) : "不过到目前为止这个讨论分成两派。一派包含了酒吧里的看球专家、走传统路线的体育 : 作家、躺在沙发上看电视的球迷、call-in 节目中常打电话进去表示意见的人，这些人 : 相信打击顺序很重要。另一派则是真正对这个问题下过功夫，这些人在作过研究之後下 : 了结论，说不管打序怎麽安排，最後的得分数都会是差不多。至於要相信哪一派的说法 : ，你可以自己选择。" 有点好奇，如果把Manny跟老爹摆在第八跟第九棒结果还是一样嘛？ 或者是把上垒率低的摆前面，或者是把棒次变成一个强打前後夹着两个弱棒 类似这种比较极端的排法那结果还会一样嘛？ 一直以来数据有他迷人的地方但是有时候我们去思考棒球的本质才会发现 这个运动会让我们这麽着迷的原因在於他会发生很多数据无法估算到的地方 好比2004年我们拿到冠军那年的美联冠军赛！ 话又说回来，我觉得上垒率的思考与其说是上垒率不如说是出局率反解 因此上垒率高=出局率低=增加单局攻击机会 这样想来上垒率的思考真的是针对棒球单局三出局的规则做考量 也难怪这样的数据让人那麽着迷 : Believe what you like. I buy the "doesn't matter" bit because it helps : reassure me that it doesn't matter that our manager is an idiot. : My personal belief is that yes, it does matter, for a good team on the : threshold. An optimal batting order over a "decent" batting order, optimizes : what, 5 extra runs a season? Yes, that makes or breaks a season, but only : with a decent team like the Red Sox. If you're the Royals, it wouldn't : matter anyway, 5 runs isn't stopping you from taking the 1st overall position : in next's entry draft. Hopefully they'll spend money on a high school pitcher : with gas. : Kind of like your motehr smoking while preganant with you, or not smoking. : It would have helped that your mother DIDN'T smoke while she was pregnant, : but you were going to be fucking retarded ANYWAY regardless of the smoking. : You didn't have chance. Just like the Royals --

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