重点两句 1.趁反弹卖掉南非币 2.南非币年底可能会贬到USD/ZAR=7.37 http://0rz.net/221AD 转载自此网址 Currency Strategists: Nedbank Says Rand to Drop on Commodities July 12 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should use a recovery in the rand to sell the currency on speculation lower global economic growth will hurt the price of the metals that make up about a fifth of South African exports, according to Nedbank Ltd. Global economic expansion should slow as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates in the world's biggest economy, said Nicky Weimar, a senior Nedbank economist in Johannesburg. ``Commodity prices will come under pressure and will be volatile, and that'll have negative consequences for our exporters'' and the rand, Weimar said in a telephone interview. The currency of Africa's largest economy has risen more than 5 percent since falling to 7.54 per dollar on June 23, its lowest since January 2004. It may resume its drop and fall 3 percent from 7.13 at 4:30 p.m. in Johannesburg to 7.37 per dollar by the end of the year, according to Weimar. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ South Africa is the world's largest producer of gold and platinum and the rand often moves in tandem with the precious metals that account for about a fifth of exports in the $239 billion economy. The rand advanced to as high as 6.04 per dollar on May 12, the same day gold traded at a 26-year peak of $730.40. Since then, the rand has fallen 15 percent , closely following a 11 percent decline in the price of gold, the country's single largest export. Emerging Market Woes South Africa's currency has also fallen with other emerging markets since May amid speculation the country it will struggle to plug its growing current deficit as higher rates in the U.S. and other developed markets lure investors , starving riskier emerging market assets of cash. The rand slumped by as much as 3.7 percent to a 29-month low on June 22 after the central bank said the current account gap, the widest measure of trade in goods and services, widened to a 24-year high of 6.4 percent of gross domestic product in the first quarter. A higher deficit implies more rand have to be converted into dollars to pay for imports. Gold for immediate delivery was at $649.80 an ounce at 4:15 p.m. in London today. Platinum, South Africa's No. 2 export, traded at a six-week high of $1,260.50 an ounce, after slipping from a record $1,340 on May 12. To contact the reporter on this story: Lukanyo Mnyanda in Johannesburg at [email protected] Last Updated: July 12, 2006 10:36 EDT --

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