新闻来源： http://www.observer.com/2007/chien-ming-wang-occasional-ace?page=0%2C1 Wang was victimized by a .366 BABIP in August entering today’s game, and had a 5.46 ERA for the month as a result. His career BABIP mark of .291 has yielded a career ERA of 3.83. The problem is that BABIP is not a repeatable skill. Pitchers as skilled as Pedro Martinez in his prime have seen BABIP go from .325 in 1999 to .217 in 2000. Pedro, however, took the spinning of the roulette wheel out of his results often, striking out 313 in 213 innings in 1999, while walking just 37. He was able to minimize the damage luck could deal him. Contrast that with recent Yankee Aaron Small, whose strikeout rate of 4.25 over two seasons in New York bests Wang’s career mark. Small held batters to a .277 BABIP in his magical 2005 season, overcoming a strikeout rate of just 4.38 to post a 10-0 record and 3.20 ERA. In 2006, with a strikeout rate of four per nine (but a BABIP that jumped to .388), Small posted an 8.46 ERA. This is not to say that Wang’s performance will fluctuate as much as Small’ s did (for one thing, Wang’s walk rate remains steady, while Small’s did not). But pitchers on the low end of the strikeout spectrum are extremely vulnerable to the variables of baseball luck. Wang also may not be so lucky with the home run ball, despite his ground ball tendencies. He’s allowed seven long balls in his 166 1/3 innings this season. But Seattle’s Felix Hernandez, whose groundball/fly ball ratio is slightly better than Wang’s, has given up 17 homers in 150 innings. Even Cleveland’s Fausto Carmona, whose 3.33 ground balls for each fly ball is significantly better than Wang’s 2.62, has allowed 14 long balls in 173 2/3 innings. Home run rate also fluctuates from year to year, regardless of the pitcher. Brandon Webb, who throws a sinker as his main pitch as well, allowed 21 home runs in 2005, 10 this year. Bruce Sutter, whose sinking action on his pitches put him in the Hall of Fame, allowed 10 home runs in 101 1/3 innings in 1978, then just 3 in 99 innings in 1979. And Sutter struck out well over a better per inning in both seasons, meaning he had far fewer balls in play that could leave the park than Wang does. So the next time Ching-Mien Wang pitches, bring your rabbit’s foot to Yankee Stadium. Rub Freddy Sez’s four-leaf clover for luck. And if you don’t see batters swinging and missing much, hope the energetic Yankee hitters can come to the rescue. --- 这篇写得很不专业 看完了但不太想翻 XD 这篇文章下面有九篇comment 几乎都是"totally disagree (with this article)" 有兴趣的可以连到原文网址看一下 --

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