※ 引述《Sizemore24 (the diving catch)》之铭言： : → :他好一点的薪水吗? 毕竟Cano在洋基的重要性比王低太多 01/20 18:31 : 我一直不懂讲 Cano 在洋基的重要性比 Wang 低太多的根据在哪里？虽然这是 Wang 的个 : 人版，有时候政治立场选择正确很重要 ... : 目前坊间较常被拿来评估贡献度的 Win Shares 或 VORP 这两个贡献数据，一是 Cano 赢 : 而另一是 Wang 赢 (而且 VORP 并不看 Cano 的防守贡献)，这就不提了，有没有另外更具 : 公信力的数据指标或是说法，来告诉我这两个人谁是重要性较高的？或者判断 Cano 在 : Yankees 的重要性比 Wang 低太多这句话是否合理？ : Wang 的确是在 Yankees 去年投手屡出状况时为轮值圈顶起缺口，但相对的 Cano 去年也 : 交出几乎是全美联 Top 3 的二垒手攻守综合成绩，两人的角色换成任何一个相对只有「 : 联盟平均」的球员，都可能让去年 Yankees 能否进 playoff 惊险度更高 (对照追在後面 : Tigers 与 Mariners 都只 Yankees 差了 6 胜。) : 再把农场或球队之中其他可能的替代人选考虑进去，我更不明白「重要性低太多」这句话 : 了。 你发现了WinShare跟VORP各有胜负时，你有没有去查查看为什麽WinShare跟VORP会给出 不太相同的答案，首先，我们先来看WS It considers statistics for players, in the context of their team, and assigns a single number to each player for his contributions for the year. All pitching, hitting and defensive contributions by the player are taken into account. Statistics are adjusted for park, league and era. A win share represents one-third of a team win, by definition. If a team wins 80 games in a season, then its players will share 240 win shares. Players cannot be awarded negative win shares, by definition. Some critics of the system argue that negative win shares are necessary. In defense of the system, proponents argue that very few players in a season would amass a negative total, if it were possible. However, critics argue, when one player does amass a negative total, he is zeroed out, thus diminishing other players' Win Shares totals. In an attempt to fix this error, some have developed a modified system in which negative Win Shares are indeed possible. 用一句话来简单形容，WS就是该球员在球队所有胜场中，贡献了几胜。但是有一点要注意 那就是球员并不会有负的WS，也就是你就算用了一袋球当2B，他的WS也是正的，这里就有 一点端倪了。 接下来看VORP In baseball, value over replacement player (or VORP) is a statistic invented by Keith Woolner that demonstrates how much a hitter contributes offensively or how much a pitcher contributes to his team in comparison to a fictitious "replacement player," who is an average fielder at his position and a below average hitter.[1] [2] A replacement player performs at "replacement level," which is the level of performance an average team can expect when trying to replace a player at minimal cost, also known as "freely available talent." 也用一句话形容，VORP就是指该球员跟所谓"Replacemanet level"比起来有多厉害。 这时，如果你用一袋球当2B，他的VORP就是负的了。 综合以上这两点，可以得出一个没有经过什麽科学验证的结论，那就是Cano或许比Wang 更靠近该守备位置的Replacement level，而球员薪资的决定，往往来自於他跟该守备位置 的其他球员所比较的结果，那即是说，Wang比Cano更贵的决定性原因在於，会赢球的先发 投手是稀有财，而会打击的二垒手虽然也很少见，但是较易於找到取代品。 而事实上，若是洋基跟王若是走向薪资仲裁庭，跟洋基队有几个堪用先发是没有关系的 因为仲裁庭并不会考虑洋基有几个能用的先发投手，而是考虑说与王成绩相仿的投手领多 少钱等等因素，来决定谁获胜。 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 192.192.90.211