※ 引述《yyhong68 (come every now and then)》之铭言： : 这一篇是来自 Replacement Level Yankees Weblog : SG写的文章，原打算不要全PO，但後来还是觉得这麽做 : 请注意这篇的作者是来自 Replacement Level Yankees Weblog 的SG : 若版主觉得这样转贴不妥，敬请删除 : : 球季前的文章，看看该球员一些过去的成绩与数据所呈现的资讯及 : 新球季的可能预测与展望 : 之前已经也写完野手了，最新一篇是投手， : 由於小王可能排开幕战投手，所以作者在关於投手的第一篇就是写王建民 : Looking Ahead to 2008 - Chien-Ming Wang : With the position players done and accounted for, it's time to move on to : the Yankee pitching. The numbers show that the position players should do : their part to make the Yankees a contender, so it's up to the pitching to : not hamper that. First up, it's the Yankees likely opening day starter, : Chien-Ming Wang. 2008年展望 - 王建民 现在该轮到洋基投手了。数据显示每个位置的球员对球队竞争力都有贡献，所以投手 要作的是不要阻碍球队的胜利。首先，来看看洋基开幕日可能的投手─王建民。 : 2007 : After a solid regular season that saw Wang rank as one of the top 15 starting : pitchers in the American League by most measures came a disastrous postseason : that was the chief reason the Yankees did not advance out of the ALDS. : Unfortunately, this tarnished what was an overall good season and led to : many Yankee fans wanting him shipped out for pennies on the dollar because : he's teh unclutch. 2007年 王用坚强的固定先发表现使自己名列美国联盟前15名顶尖投手群中，但他灾难性的季後赛 是洋基无法晋级的主因。不幸地，这成为一整个好球季的污点，并让许多洋基迷希望他 被便宜交易出去。 : Wang is the type of player that can't be easily projected. To this point in : his career Wang has done three things well. He suppresses HRs, he walks : fewer batters than average, and he allows a lower percentage of hits on : balls in play than the average. The walk rate is a skill that can't be : taken away from him. HRs allowed are normally a function of a pitchers' : fly ball percentage, usually around 11%. In his career, Wang is around : 7.7%. The league average BABIP is around .304, Wang's career mark is .287. : So when you regress HR rate and hit rate towards league average as most : projection systems do, Wang gets penalized more than most pitchers. His : low K rate doesn't really impact his projections as much as assumed. 王是那种难以被轻易预测的球员。在这点上，王的职业生涯有三件事作得很好。他压低 全垒打数、比平均更低的四坏率，被打击率也比平均低─看王的表现不能忽视四坏率。 另外全垒打数一般而言是投手飞球率的函数，平均大约在11%，而王的飞球率为7.7%。 大联盟平均BABIP为0.304，王的数据是0.287。因此，当你将全垒打率和被打击率作 回归─大多数预测系统如此运作，王被低估的程度比大部分的投手要严重。他的低三振率 带来的负面影响并没有像预测估计的那麽多。 : Regarding the HR rate, I'm not so sure that we should assume that all fly : balls are equal. I don't know if anyone has ever studied the correlation : between HRs per fly ball and ground ball rate, but it may be an interesting : study. Regarding BABIP, there is at least some anecdotal evidence(注1) that : Wang allows more easily fieldable ground balls, as do most ground ball : pitchers. 关於全垒打率，我不确定是否我们应该假设所有的飞球都是一样的。我不知道是否有人 研究过「每飞球的全垒打率」和「滚地球率」之间的相关，这应该是一个有趣的研究。 关於BABIP，至少有一些证据显示王被击出的滚地球比一般滚地球更容易防守，滚地球 投手都是这样的。 : Wang exceeded his projections pretty significantly in 2007. 在2007年，王的表现大大超越了预测。 : Chien-Ming Wang : ERA G IP Hit R ER HR BB K : Avg Proj 4.17 29 181 199 91 84 16 48 78 : Actual 3.70 30 199 199 84 82 9 59 104 : Difference 113% 105% 110% : RSAA RSAA/200 H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 : Avg Proj 8 8 9.9 0.8 2.4 3.9 : Actual 23 23 9.0 0.4 2.7 4.7 : Difference 276% 276% 110% 195% 89% 121% : RSAA: runs saved above average : RSAA/200: RSAA pro-rated to 200 innings : *All difference are on a rate basis except for G and IP. All percentages : are set so that a percentage better than 100 means the pitcher was better : than expected, and a percentage lower than 100 means they were worse : (on a rate basis). (解释数据) : Wang saved 15 runs more than expected compared to average. He allowed 10% : fewer hits than expected, 95% fewer HRs than projected and struck out 21% : more than expected. His walk rate was 11% worse than projected, which : probably goes in hand with him experimenting with more pitches and his : improved strikeout rate. 王的RSAA比预测的少了15。他被击出的安打比预测少了10%、全垒打少了95%、三振率高了 21%。他的四坏率比预估的高了11%，这大概是因为他试验投更多球并改善三振率。 : On the surface, Wang's 2007 was a carbon copy of his 2006. 19-6 with a 3.63 : ERA vs. 19-7 with a 3.70 ERA. If you look at the numbers in a little more : detail there are some differences though, primarily in his splits. I've : calcualted the splits below from Retrosheet's(注2) play by play data, so they : may differ slightly from splits you may see elsewhere. 表面上，王的2007年球季是2006年的翻版─19胜6败、防御率3.63对比19胜7败、 防御率3.7。但如果你稍为仔细注意数据，就会发现不同，特别是一些切割性的数据。 我用不同方式计算一些切割性数据，所以以下的数字会跟其他地方能看到的不同。 : Split PA AB 1B 2B 3B HR BB HBP K : Vs LHB 429 393 77 25 3 7 34 2 34 : Vs RHB 389 359 69 13 3 2 24 6 70 : Total 818 752 146 38 6 9 58 8 104 : Split AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS s F% L% G% P% : Vs LHB .285 .345 .417 .762 .073 17% 25% 55% 3% : Vs RHB .242 .301 .312 .613 .080 15% 18% 63% 3% : Total .265 .324 .367 .691 .038 16% 22% 58% 3% : OPS s: OPS sigma : F%: Fly ball % : L%: Line drive % : G%: Groundball % : P%: Popup % : Contrast that to Wang's splits in 2005 and 2006. : Split PA AB 1B 2B 3B HR BB HBP K : Vs LHB 625 584 112 32 3 11 40 1 48 : Vs RHB 737 693 148 29 1 10 37 7 75 : Total 1362 1277 260 61 4 21 77 8 123 : Split AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS s F% L% G% P% : Vs LHB .271 .318 .392 .711 .066 16% 16% 63% 4% : Vs RHB .271 .315 .359 .674 .056 17% 15% 65% 3% : Total .271 .316 .374 .691 .030 16% 16% 64% 4% : Lefties hit Wang much harder in 2007. Their line drive percentage went from : 16% to 25% which led to a higher batting average. In 2005-2006, Wang walked : 6.4% of the lefties he faced and struck out 7.7%. In 2007 he walked 7.9% of : the lefties he faced and fanned 7.9%. For righties he went from striking out : 10.2% in 2005 and 2006 to 18.0% in 2007, with his walk rate going from 5% to : 6.2%. These numbers tell me that Wang was making adjustments in 2007, and : it'll be interesting to see what that means for 2008. 左打在2007年对王打得更顺手了。他们的平飞球率从16%上升到25%，使的被打击率升高。 在2005-2006年间，王保送6.4%、三振7.7%的左打。在2007年他保送7.9%、三振7.9%。 而右打，2005和2006的三振率是10.2%，到了2007年成长为18%，同时保送率从5%增加至 6.2%。这些数字告诉我一件事─王在2007年调整自己。观察2008年球季将是件有趣的 事情。 : 2008 : As Wang continues to perform, the projection systems are starting to fall : in line. 2008年 王继续上场，预测出来了。 : Projection G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP : chone 30 30 189 217 99 91 14 55 96 4.33 4.02 : marcel 28 28 181 184 81 77 11 53 92 3.83 3.85 : pecota 29 29 178 200 97 87 14 59 95 4.37 4.16 : zips 30 30 200 213 95 87 13 53 87 3.92 3.97 : cairo 30 30 197 201 87 84 11 54 89 3.84 3.84 : average 29 29 189 203 92 85 13 55 92 4.05 3.97 : Projection RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR : chone 3 22 7 23 : marcel 13 31 10 25 : pecota 2 20 4 19 : zips 12 32 8 26 : cairo 14 33 11 28 : average 9 28 8 24 (预测) : The projection systems see Wang around a 4 ERA which would make him about : a win better than average, or three wins better than a replacement level : starter. Here's his range of CAIRO projections. 预测系统说王的防御率大约是4，胜投会比平均数字高，或者比replacement level投手 多出三场的胜投。已下是他的CAIRO预测 : CAIRO % G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP : 80% 30 30 197 187 78 75 8 47 98 3.42 3.42 : 65% 30 30 197 194 82 79 9 50 94 3.63 3.63 : Baseline 30 30 197 201 87 84 11 54 89 3.84 3.84 : 35% 30 30 197 208 92 89 13 58 84 4.05 4.06 : 20% 30 30 197 215 96 93 14 61 80 4.26 4.27 : CAIRO % RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR : 80% 23 43 20 37 : 65% 18 38 16 33 : Baseline 14 33 11 28 : 35% 9 29 6 23 : 20% 5 24 2 19 (数据) : Projection systems are meant to be objective, so they just look at the : numbers. Wang's stats belie the quality of his stuff, which we can see : if we use Josh Kalk's Pitch F/X tool.(注3) Wang's sinker averages 94 mph. : That's a dominant pitch, even if it doesn't result in strikeouts. It also : seems like Wang is working on refining his slider and changeup which can only : help him. It'll be interesting to see if new pitching coach Dave Eiland can : help Wang in that regard. 预测系统的用意在於客观，因此他们只看数字，但王的统计数据掩盖了他的球质。王的 sinker平均速度94英哩─即使它不能制造三振，这仍是一个具支配力的投球。另一方面 王也似乎正在努力让滑球和变速球更上层楼。观察新投手教练Dave Eiland是否能在这点 帮助王将是一件有趣的事。 : I see Wang somewhere between the 65% and the baseline projection this year, : which is basically what he has done to this point in his career. 我在某处看到人们预测小王介乎65%和底线之间，基本上小王已经办到了。 : Value : Wang's in his first year of arbitration eligibility, and lost his case with : the Yankees. He'll make $4 million this season which makes him a bargain : compared to what teams pay on the free agent market for a marginal win. 价值 王第一年具有仲裁资格，而他输给球团。这季他将领400万美元的薪水，相较於球团付 给自由球员的价码，这是一场合算的交易。 : Proj WAR Proj Value Salary Difference : 2.8 $12,397,876 $4,000,000 $8,397,876 (预测价值和实领薪水) : The Yankees have been hesitant to sign Wang to a long-term deal, which : makes sense given his past injury history and the fact that he is difficult : to project. If he continues to perform as he has he's probably worth : around $10-12 million a season. 洋基不愿意和王签长约，看看小王的伤病史和他难以精确预测的表现，这其实合理。 如果他继续保持现在的表现，他也许一季能值1000-1200万美金。 : Conclusion : I know Wang had a bad postseason, but I'm still a fan. He's probably miscast : as a #1 starter when comparing him to the Johan Santana and Jake Peavy : class of pitcher, but he's been one of the top fourteen pitchers in the AL : the last two years, which by definition makes him a top starter. With : Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain up with the team now, Wang may be : supplanted as the Yankees' "ace" as soon as this season. Then maybe he'll : get credit for being what he is, which is a good solid starter that ANY : team in baseball would be glad to have. 结论 我知道王有一个糟糕的季後赛，但我仍是他的粉丝。跟桑塔那和皮维等级的投手比，他大 概被误植成第一号先发。但他在过去两年已经是美国联盟顶尖14名投手之一。现在 休斯和张伯伦都在队上，王作为洋基王牌的地位在这季可能很快被取代。然後也许， 王会因为作真正的自己而得到掌声─他是一个任何球队都乐意拥有的坚强先发投手。 : --Posted at 12:05 pm by SG / 18 Comments | - (399) : http://preview.tinyurl.com/2qttv2 : 注1：http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/the_wang_effect : 注2；http://www.retrosheet.org/ : 注3；http://tinyurl.com/2ydhd9 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 69.137.224.122 ※ 编辑: shirlyfen 来自: 69.137.224.122 (03/11 23:26)