Enough with the free throw shooting Posted by Dan Labbe, cleveland.com April 23, 2008 11:42AM http://tinyurl.com/59npe4 这是一篇很冏的文章，我看完之後也很後悔我看了...冏 What's the most overrated stat in the NBA? How about team free throw percentage? NBA最被高估的数据是什麽？作者觉得是团队罚球命中率...很冏 Want proof? Guess what the San Antonio Spurs last three title teams and the Miami Heat of '05-'06 all had in common. They were in the bottom 5 in the NBA in playoff free throw percentage. 举出最近几年拿冠军的队伍都是罚球不准的...更冏 Let's look at the numbers. In 2005-2006 San Antonio shot 72.43% from the line in the playoffs. That was the 4th worst of all the playoff teams. The top three free throw percentage teams in last year's playoffs didn't make it past the first round (Toronto, Houston and Denver). 接着拿出一堆历史数据，证明作者自己奇怪的论点，罚的好会在第一轮被淘汰... 中间一堆数据大家就自己看吧，接着讨论到跟骑士队有关的。 Think that LeBron's and the Cavaliers' free throw shooting is a major issue? Ask the Wizards about how much LeBron's poor free throw shooting has helped them beat the Cavs in the playoffs. Or ask the Pistons how easily they've been able to beat the Cavs the last two postseasons thanks to LeBron's troubles at the stripe. Or ask any other team the Cavaliers have beaten behind James' individual performances. If you want, I suppose you can call up Phil Jackson and ask him to lament all those championships the Lakers didn't win thanks to Hack-a-Shaq. 问问巫师队，LeBron的罚球有没有帮他们打败Cavs？或是去问问活塞队还有其他被LBJ 个人表现所击败的队伍。然後作者要我们去打电话给禅师，承认骇客战术帮助了湖人拿 了那麽多总冠军。 It's entirely possible to go through and cherry-pick single games where free throws have hurt a team. But over the course of a seven-game series, they usually don't matter. Because for the most part free throws are magnified at the ends of games when coaches manipulate their personnel and can get the ball in the hands of their best or most clutch free throw shooters. 作者在此提到一场比赛或许罚球命中率有所影响，但是在季後赛七场的抗战下来，差距 就没那麽大了(奇怪，我怎麽觉得七场下来会越差越多？)。是因为在比赛的最後紧要关 头，教练通常倾向让最准或是心脏最大的球员持球去罚，所以罚球才会被大家放大检视。 Here's the big secret about free throws: They're only worth one point. Not only that, make or miss, a team going to the line is going there because they were fouled, right? What do we know about fouls? They add up. And if a key player gets into foul trouble or if an interior defender is forced to play differently because of fouls, that changes the game more than the single point that was converted or not converted at the stripe. 罚球，只值一分。被犯规才能上罚球线，但是犯规会累计。如果一个关键球员或是内线 球员有犯规麻烦，这影响比赛内容会远远比罚进或罚不进一球还大。 Could it be that free throws attempted per game is a much more important stat than percentage? Even a bad NBA free throw shooting team converts on around 70% of their free throws while the best are around 80%. The difference over 30 free throws between 70 and 80 percent is only three points. 罚球最准的队伍大概有八成命中率，最差的大概七成。假设一整场比赛罚30球的话，差 距只有三分...||| (可以这样算吗？好像也有道理XD) Quantity appears to be much more important than quality. In 2002-03, the Spurs shot 30.3 free throws (3rd) a game in the playoffs and won the title. The Pistons shot 27.3 a game (2nd in the playoffs) and beat the Lakers in the Finals. The Lakers were 2nd that year with 27.9 a game. In 2005-06, Miami shot 30.9 free throws a game in their title run, third best in that year's playoffs. Only the Spurs in 2004-05 and last year were worse than 8th in the playoffs in free throws attempted. I've already shown you that all but the '04-'05 Pistons were near the bottom in playoff free throw percentage, yet quantity seemed more important than quality. 量似乎比质重要。提出历史数据证明罚越多球越好，不准没关系，多多益善。 It may not be the most relevant stat, but it seems like a much more relevant stat than free throw percentage, based on the results. 从结果看来，似乎罚球数影响比罚球命中率还要来的大。 So before you rail against the Cavs and their free throw percentage, check the numbers. Great free throw shooting in the playoffs, at least in recent years, has not led to championships. 所以在批评骑士队的罚球命中率之前，请先看此篇文章XD 好的罚球命中率，并不会带来球队的胜利..........................吧 下面的comments也很有趣，有人觉得看完浪费时间，有人觉得是本年度最蠢的分析XD --

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