※ [本文转录自 NBA 看板 #1IbSNMYz ] 作者: idiotsmart (不吃蕃茄) 看板: NBA 标题: [外絮] 悲剧再次在芝加哥上演 时间: Wed Nov 27 18:13:36 2013 Deja Vu in Chicago 悲剧再次在芝加哥上演 （底下连结有图文部落格版） Some thoughts after a very depressing weekend of NBA basketball has left the league feeling unusually unsettled for this time of season, with scads of injuries and so many (Eastern Conference) teams with high internal expectations floundering horribly: 由於大量的伤病消息以及多数自我期许很高但正痛苦挣扎的（东区）球队，在一 个令人沮丧的NBA周末过後，一些想法让不安感少见的在球季开始便弥漫全联盟。 With Derrick Rose officially lost for the season, we don't need any more reminders about just how much luck and health-related fortune goes into winning even a single championship. All the VERY LOUD SHOUTING about "ringzzzzz" might obscure this, but how many rings would Michael Jordan own if Scottie Pippen had developed chronic knee issues? Bill Russell went down midway through the 1958 Finals, which the Celtics lost, and injuries both major and minor have tipped the balance of every postseason since. We would do well to remember season-altering issues to contender centerpieces (Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Willis Reed, Jerry West, Kevin Garnett, Oscar Robertson, Dave DeBusschere, Russell Westbrook, Andrew Bynum, Isiah Thomas, etc.) and sub-stars (Jameer Nelson, Sam Cassell, Lakers-era Karl Malone, Gus Johnson, and on, and on) the next time someone screams about how pathetic and "unclutch" it is that Player X hasn't won a ring. Health plays a giant role in deciding the champion — in literally every season. 因为Derrick Rose正式宣布球季报销，我们不再需要强调赢得总冠军需要多少的 运气和健康因子，即使只赢一座亦然。一堆关於「冠军重要性」的主流言论可能 蒙蔽了这件事，但假设Scottie Pippen有着长期的膝盖问题，Michael Jordan会 拥有多少冠军戒呢？Bill Russell在1958年总冠军战中途便因伤倒下，导致塞尔 迪克输球，而且在往後的季後赛无论大小伤都左右着战局。在下次某些人大声谈 到某某没赢得冠军的球员多麽可悲和手软时，我们应当好好的记着那些因冠军争 夺者队内重心（Russell、Wilt Chamberlain、Willis Reed、Jerry West、Kevin Garnett、Oscar Robertson、Dave DeBusschere、Russell Westbrook、Andrew Bynum、Isiah Thomas…等等）或次核心（Jameer Nelson、Sam Cassell、穿湖 人球衣的Karl Malone、Gus Johnson…族繁不及备载）受伤而改变赛季走向的重 要事件。健康是影响总冠军的重要因素，每个球季都是如此。 For all the attention on the wonky basketball mysteries SportVU tracking cameras might solve, the real holy grail is combining that technology with others that might lead to some tiny slice of enlightenment on injury prediction and prevention. It will never be an exact science — not in our lifetimes, anyway. But any team that learns some small truth about injuries will have gained a valuable edge. 在所有SportVU追踪摄影机可能解决的篮球迷团中，最为重要的是将其结合其他技 术便可能发现伤病预测和防治的一线希望。这将永远不会成为一个真正的科学， 至少不会在我们还在世时。但任何球队能学习到一丝丝关於伤痛的真相，那他们 将获得价值匪浅的优势。 The Bulls find themselves in a very tricky situation. This is a taxed-out team, built around Rose, constructed to win the title now. Rose tore the medial portion of his meniscus, the piece of cartilage that runs along the inside of a player's knee. That is a small bit of good news. A 2011 study published in the American Journal of Sports Medicine found NBA players were disproportionately likely to tear the lateral meniscus, the portion of cartilage that does a bit more athletic work and carries a longer recovery time. 公牛队现在置身於尴尬的情形。他们是支超过薪资上限的球队，以Rose为核心建 队并打造出总冠军级球队。Rose撕裂了半月板的中间部分，这部分的软骨是随着 球员膝盖在运转。这倒是有个好消息。一个刊在美国运动医学期刊的研究发现NBA 球员大多数都倾向於撕裂半月板的侧面区域，而这部分的软骨负责比较多运动相 关活动，并需要更多的恢复时间。 Rose has avoided that, at least. The Bulls will likely choose to mend the torn portion of Rose's meniscus if they can, though the medial side has weaker blood flow, which can make it more challenging to pull off a full stitching, according to several doctors and trainers. A full mending carries a recovery time that can last between three and four months, and often even longer; Westbrook took nearly six months to fully recover from his meniscus tear, and that was before learning he needed a second clean-up operation before this season. Snipping out the damaged portion of the meniscus allows for much quicker recovery, but snipping out too much of it can leave the player vulnerable to long-term bone-on-bone issues. Rose至少避免伤了那部分。公牛队在状况允许下，很可能选择让Rose半月板的撕 裂区块痊癒。虽然根据一些医生和训练员的说法，中间侧的血流较少，因此让缝 合更难以完成。完全的痊癒需要三到四个月，或甚至更长的恢复时间。Westbrook 花将近六个月才从半月板撕裂伤中痊癒，而且这还不算在季前他发现膝盖需要第 二个清理碎片手术。直接除去半月板受损伤的部分会缩短恢复时间，但除去太多 的话会让球员更易於受长期膝盖骨碰骨的伤痛折磨。 The Bulls will make the playoffs if they wish to do so. The East is a giant pile of flaming basketball dung after Indiana, Miami, Atlanta, and Chicago, and the Bulls proved last season that Tom Thibodeau's defense and some canny ball movement is enough to keep them around .500. And, hell, .500 could get you a damn trophy in the Eastern Conference this season. 公牛队只要有意愿，便可以打进季後赛。东区在溜马、热火、老鹰和公牛之後， 是一大坨抢状元球队，而公牛队在上季证明Tom Thibodeau的防守和一些聪明的 团队篮球便足以让他们保持五成左右胜率。而且还真见鬼了，五成胜率可以让你 在这季的东区得到一座该死的奖杯。 It's true that this Chicago team, with Mike Dunleavy and Mike James/Marquis Teague in the places of Nate Robinson and Marco Belinelli, is comparatively lacking in ball handlers. That hurts. James has played nine minutes all season, Dunleavy is mostly a spot-up guy with a bit of one-dribble-and-pass panache, and Teague hasn't resembled an NBA player in his limited time. (He belongs in the D-League, but I'm not sure the Bulls are familiar with the D-League. Just kidding — they are, I swear! But they haven't acted as such.) Deng gets by with crafty movement that generates a teensy bit of separation, and Jimmy Butler hasn't grasped a larger share of the offense to date. And Butler's hurt for now, anyway, leaving Kirk Hinrich far too much responsibility. 事实上，公牛队以Mike Dunleavy和Mike James／Marquis Teague取代Nate Robinson和Marco Belinelli的阵容，相对来说缺乏了控球者。而这的确伤害着 球队。James目前总共只上场9分钟、Dunleavy主要是位有着运一次便传球习惯的 定点射手，而Teague在目前有限的上场时间内还没有表现的像个NBA球员。（他 的程度属於发展联盟，但我不太确定公牛队是否熟悉发展联盟。我只是开玩笑的 啦！我发誓他们熟悉发展联盟，但表现起来不像就是了。）Deng的巧妙过人让他 和其他人稍有差距，而Jimmy Butler这季至今还没有在球队进攻端给予大量帮助 。反正Butler现在也受伤了，使得Kirk Hinrich肩膀上的担子更难以负荷。 Chicago is nearly $8 million over the tax line; adding even one minimum-salaried player to what is already a bare-bones 13-man roster is a very expensive proposition for a team that never even paid a dollar in tax until last season. 公牛队超过奢侈税上限约莫8百万。这对一支已经人手紧缺的13阵容，同时在去年 以前从未缴过豪华税的球队来说，再加入一名底薪球员也是相当昂贵的决定。 But the Bulls are an obvious playoff team, regardless. The question is whether they should maintain this roster in hopes of coalescing late in the season upon Rose's return, or cut bait and begin repurposing the team for its next era — while potentially cutting this season's tax bill in the process. 但公牛队无论如何都显然是支季後赛等级球队。问题在於他们是否该维持现有阵 容，并期望Rose在球季末端回归後整合好球队，或是就此打住并准备开启球队的 新时代，同时在过程中尽可能的减少球队的豪华税支出。 That begins, and might well end, with Deng's $14 million expiring contract. The Bulls tabled extension talks with Deng before the season, but they've always maintained privately that they'd like to re-sign him as a long-term piece. Thibodeau adores him, almost to the point of physical destruction. 交易要从Deng的1千4百万到期约开始讨论起，而或许也会以这笔合约作结束。公 牛队在季前把Deng的延长合约谈判暂且搁置，但他们一直以来私底下都保持着重 签他为球队长期核心的意愿。Thibodeau热爱他，几乎到达摧毁他身体的程度。 But he's nearly 29, seeking an eight-figure annual salary, with a weird injury history and minute totals in the rearview that make you wince just looking at them. Any team would be justified in feeling queasy about committing four years of big salary to Deng. 但他年近29岁的他在寻求一份八位数年薪的合约，同时有着诡异的伤病史及上场 时间，让你光是用看的就会退缩。任何对於给予Deng大合约感到不安的球队，都 是情有可原的。 Keeping Deng on the books would also kill the (very tenuous) possibility of Chicago carving out max-level/LeBron-level cap space this summer, even if they were to use the amnesty provision on the final season of Carlos Boozer's massive contract. If the Bulls think this era is basically dead, they'd be wise to test the trade market for Deng rather than let him walk for nothing. 把Deng留着阵中也会扼杀公牛在这个暑假创造出顶级／LeBron级薪资空间的（极 小）可能性，即使他们准备把特赦条款用在Carlos Boozer最後一年的大笔合约 亦然。如果公牛认为这个时代根本该结束了，那比起白白让他离开，公牛队把 Deng拿去市场上试水温将是明智的选择。 The market for expiring contracts has been cool in recent seasons, as teams have learned to properly value first-round picks over a few months of contract-year production from a trade piece. But Deng is a well-regarded Swiss army knife of a player who doesn't require touches and could fit within any system. Chicago might be able to pry a late first-round pick from some borderline contender in exchange for Deng — the desperate Wizards just coughed up a potential lottery pick for Marcin "the towel ripper" Gortat — but even if they can't, the Bulls might net some combination of savings and second-round picks. Potential Deng suitors could include: 到期合约的市场近几季来稍稍冷却下来，因为球队正确的认知到首轮签的交易价 值高於剩几个月的到期约价值。不过Deng是被大家熟知的瑞士军刀型球员，他不 需要大量触球而且可以融入任何系统。公牛队可能可以透过交易Deng，从某支季 後赛边缘球队手上偷到首轮後段的选秀签。铤而走险的巫师队才刚喷出一个潜在 的乐透签为了换来「毛巾杀手」Marcin Gortat。但即使他们无法给出首轮签，公 牛还是可以赚到些省钱和二轮签的组合。潜在的Deng追求者包含： Cleveland: 克里夫兰骑士队： The Cavs are a disaster with a revolving cast of bricklayers at small forward, an ownership group that talked very loudly about making noise in the postseason, and a pile of trade assets. Deng would help this season without soaking up the cap space Cleveland has saved up to make another run at LeBron. (Stop laughing!) 骑士队是支以小前锋作为核心打造、老板大言不惭的说要在季後赛有一番作为， 而且有满满交易资产的失败球队。Deng可以在不占掉骑士队为了争夺LeBron所留 下的薪资空间的前提下，在这季援助这支球队。（关於LeBron的事别再笑了好吗 ！） Milwaukee: 密尔瓦基公鹿队： The Bucks have stumbled into a tanking gold mine, but their owner, Herb Kohl, has long been open about his preference that the Bucks compete for a bottom-rung playoff spot instead of chasing Ping-Pong balls. Caron Butler exploded over the weekend against Philly, but he's aging and unreliable. Carlos Delfino is done for a long time. Giannis Antetokounmpo isn't ready. Khris Middleton has shown flashes, but is mostly unproven. The Bucks have expiring contracts that can fit, plus more second-round picks than anyone in the league. 公鹿队现在跌到抢状元的好位置，但他们的老板Herb Kohl一直都表示他喜欢公鹿 队争取季後赛末段席次而非乐透签。Caron Butler在周末对战七六人时大爆发， 但他依然已经老化且无法依靠。Carlos Delfino有很长一段时间无法上场。Giannis Antetokounmpo还不够格。Khris Middleton有些闪耀时刻，但还没有经过足够考 验。公鹿队有着适合交易的到期约，加上联盟中无人能比的二轮签数量。 Atlanta: 亚特兰大老鹰队： Come on, Hawks! The Eastern Conference is in flames around you! You're the third-best team in the conference now by complete accident! Go for it! This roster is built to trade, and Paul Millsap, on a bargain deal, will instantly become perhaps the league's most tradable player when the calendar flips to December 15. Millsap is a valuable piece, and the Millsap/Al Horford pairing gives Atlanta impeccable spacing. But he's also something of a Horford Lite, and if Danny Ferry can turn him into a game-changing wing or center (Omer Asik?), then they should at least think about it — especially if said trade target carries an expiring contract that doesn't impact the cap flexibility Ferry has worked so carefully to build. 上啊，老鹰！你身边的东区球队现在陷入火海中！你现在是分区第三好的球队完 全是个意外！冲一发！这个阵容就是拿来交易的，而且当交易开始日12月15一到 ，把Paul Millsap摆在交易桌上的瞬间，他将成为联盟最好交易的球员。Millsap 是个有价值的球员，而且Millsap／Al Horford组合给予老鹰队无懈可击的进攻空 间。但他也像是个精简版的Horford，而若Danny Ferry可以把他换成决定比赛的 侧翼球员或是中锋（Omer Asik？），那他们至少应该思考一下。尤其当交易标的 有着到期约，因而不影响Ferry谨慎控制的薪资弹性时，更应该好好考虑。 DeMarre Carroll has been game as the team's starting small forward, and it has been nice watching him stroke 3s at a career-best rate. But he should be a bench guy, and the Hawks have zero size on the wing behind him. DeMarre Carroll本季一直担任老鹰队的先发小前锋，而且看到他以生涯最佳的三 分命中率砍进三分球真的很不赖。但他应该是个板凳球员，同时老鹰队在他之後 没有任何具对抗性的侧翼球员。 You could build a lot of interesting two- and three-team trades using the Hawks. And Atlanta can swap first-round picks with Brooklyn, via the terms of the Joe Johnson deal, in each of the next two drafts — a little trade tidbit that now looks like a straight-up coup. 你可以用老鹰队模拟出一堆有趣的两方或三分交易。而且老鹰队可以透过Joe Johnson交易得到的首轮签交换权，和篮网队换取未来两次选秀会的签。本该是交 易案中的小福利，但现在看起来真是个妙计。 New York: 纽约尼克队： Never underestimate the lunacy of a 3-9 team whose owner actually thinks they should be title contenders. The Knicks can't trade any first-round pick before their 2018 selection (thanks, Andrea!), but the Bulls might be able to foist the Deng/Boozer platter onto New York for Iman Shumpert, Amar'e Stoudemire's body, and a future pick. 可能作出的失心疯行为。尼克队无法交易任何2018选秀会以前的首轮签（谢罗！ Andrea Bargnani！），但公牛队可能有办法用Deng／Boozer组合骗到尼克的Iman Shumpert、Amar’e Stoudemire的身体和一支未来选秀签。 You could make the case for San Antonio and Oklahoma City, both in need of backup small forwards, and with small-ball friendly rosters that could incorporate another rangy wing without suffering major diminishing returns. But the Thunder are only $1.4 million under the tax, making it difficult for them to take on Deng's salary and offer the Bulls much in the way of savings. The same is true for Memphis, which has a bit more breathing room under the tax but lacks a big expiring contract or a tradable first-round pick. The Wolves have a ready package on hand of Derrick Williams, J.J. Barea, and Alexey Shved, but Corey Brewer has fit in nicely at small forward, and said package leaves Chicago with more long-term money on the books than it has now. The Nuggets and Pellies, the latter currently starting Al-Farouq Aminu's broken moon-ball jump shot at small forward, introduce the same issue of long-term money coming back to Chicago in any workable Deng deals. 也有足够的理由和马刺队及雷霆队交易，这两支都需要替补小前锋，而且都适合 小球的阵容，可以在不减少球员价值的情形下，加上一个进攻范围广的侧翼球员 。但雷霆队再多1百4十万就要付豪华税，这使得他们并不容易吃下Deng的薪资同 时让公牛有省钱空间。这情况也适用灰熊队，虽然他们有比较多的薪资公间，但 缺少大的到期约及可交易的首轮签。灰狼队手头上有一包随时可摆上桌的交易组 合，内含Derrick Williams、J.J. Barea和Alexey Shved。但Corey Brewer在灰 狼的小前锋位置打得很好，而且上述那包会让公牛队负担比现在还要更多的长约 。至於金块和鹈鹕，後者现在的先发小前锋是拥有残破弧度跳投的Al-Farouq Aminu，在任何可行的Deng交易中都有着让公牛拿到长约的问题。 Bottom line: Chicago is toast as a contender without Rose, and if the Bulls conclude that the odds are against Rose returning to anything like peak form this season, they should begin exploring trades now. The foundation for the next Bulls team is already here, in Rose, Noah, Butler, the overseas star Nikola Mirotic, and an extra first-round pick the Bobcats still owe Chicago for (gulp) Tyrus Thomas. Butler can guard most small forwards already; it would be worthwhile to test the market for both Deng and Gibson. 结论：公牛队没有Rose也被视为季後赛竞争者，而若公牛队断定Rose这季以巅峰 身手回归的可能性不高的话，那他们应当开始寻找交易的可能性。下一支公牛的 核心球员已经有Rose、Noah、Butler、海外球星Nikola Mirotic，和山猫为了换 得Tyrus Thomas丢掉的额外首轮签。Butler已经可以防守大多数的小前锋。去市 场上测试Deng和Gibson的价值挺值得的。 Please be well, Derrick. 拜托好起来吧，Derrick。 原文网址－ http://tinyurl.com/qztxkbc 心得： 由於文很长，又分为两个部分 所以我将它分为两篇文章 　　　（下集：在NBA的急诊室走一遭） Rose的报销对所有球迷来说都是个坏消息 尤其现在东区状况有点惨 少了公牛等於少了个季後赛好看的对战组合 不过对公牛来说 是时候考虑让Rose好好休息 让他从撕裂防线进攻为主的打法变成控球为主 趁这个机会找一个第一进攻手 这样才不会让Rose成为流星 Noah的伤势还未痊癒，Butler还有伤 公牛也可以趁机让这些未来球队基石好好养伤 反正今年的状况也很难拼赢溜马和热火 放眼未来或许更好 心情跟文内最後一句一样 好起来吧！Rose！ -- 新手NBA外电翻译+数据分析部落格；内有网志好读版 http://mola79321.pixnet.net/blog 欢迎来讨论!!! --

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※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ※ 转录者: AhUtopian (114.24.8.6), 时间: 11/27/2013 18:21:01