今天来三篇文章！ 1.What's Melo waiting for? Here's NBA's latest scary thought http://ppt.cc/sorb (论坛报的) 大意： Melo可能在等LBJ做决定，如果LBJ+Melo去了湖人，Gasol续签，Kobe知其本份，Bosh 去火箭，这样对公牛来说也不错，东区大概没什麽竞争对手了。 The Bulls believe the longer Carmelo Anthony takes to decide, the better their chances of signing the scoring monster. The Bulls can’t offer all the money that other teams can. But they can offer a better team, they believe, and they have a great pitch that Anthony is taking seriously. Yes. Well. Not so fast. Because here’s the scary thought rolling through the NBA: Anthony’s indecision isn’t based on his bromance with Taj Gibson’s rebounding or his growing sycophantic belief in Phil Jackson championship zen, but instead is based on Chris Bosh’s indecision, meaning Anthony would go to the Heat to play with LeBron James if Bosh took Houston’s four-year, max offer. It hasn’t happened yet. There’s a chance the Rockets could put down the bong in time to withdraw its $96 million proposal. It’s just a rumor. But ESPN’s Marc Stein tweeted that the idea was raised by the last five teams he talked to Monday. I suggested such a marriage before Anthony’s cross-country speed dating, and with nothing else happening, then anything remains possible. Everybody’s waiting for James to make a deal so Anthony can make a deal so everybody else can make a deal so we can clear the way for futbol to become our national pastime. Wait, what? Sorry. I must’ve gotten a whiff of the weed so strong that it’s making Clevelanders think James is coming back. Anyway, the King makes his choice first, then the serfs follow, the thinking goes. We ran a story on it today in My Chicago Tribune. But in a free agency rife with rumors, speculation and Magic 8-Ball answers, the one true thing is that if Anthony is serious about winning instead of money, he finds a way to play with James. Period. Paragraph. Next. Maybe that’s teaming up with the Heat. Maybe that’s working a deal with the Knicks. Maybe it’s with the Lakers. But the point is, James makes his team the conference favorite, even in the West. No sane person should opt for joining a team in the West. All the good teams play out there. It’s a struggle almost every night. But James and Anthony on the Lakers with a likely re-signed Pau Gasol barges its way into the Spurs-Thunder coronation, as long as Kobe Bryant learns he’s not Kobe Bryant anymore and give someone else the ball, pal. If the Bulls don’t get Anthony -- it looks as if they haven’t even tried to get a meeting with James -- then they ought to hope Bosh goes to the Rockets and James and Anthony go to the Lakers. Get everybody who’s good out of the East. Let them beat up each other in the other conference. Think about it. The East would look post-apocalyptic. The Heat would start with crippled and bad Dwyane Wade. The Pacers are a nut house. The Nets would have Team AARP. Now, the Wizards would be a problem because of that young, killer backcourt and the Bulls’ Defensive Player of the Year couldn’t defend anybody. The Hawks also quietly threaten to get better. But if James, Anthony and Bosh leave, and if Nikola Mirotic can play and Derrick Rose’s game doesn’t stink like his image, then the Bulls could rule the JV conference. 2.Carmelo Athony waiting on LeBron James, forcing a sign and trade, or just undecided? http://ppt.cc/Z9Zb 大意： 这篇是觉得Melo越晚作决定对我们来说是比较好的，也提出了公牛可以跟尼克sign and trade的方案，包含了薪资空间的试算， Remember back in 2010 when no one thought LeBron would really go to Miami until it happened? Then we all thought, wow we should have seen that one coming? Well maybe this season is exactly the same. Not a whole lot has happened in free agency. The minor signings have piled up for way too much money, but none of the major dominoes have fallen. Carmelo Anthony was expected to make a decision this past weekend. When it didn't happen, everyone assumed it would happen yesterday. The fact that it hasn't happened yet implies that his decision isn't going to be to land with the Knicks. If it was, there'd be no reason to wait. This could mean several things, but with rumors out there that Chris Bosh is seriously considering a Rockets deal if he doesn't like the way things fall with Miami, it might simply mean he's waiting to see if Miami becomes an option. You see, if Melo has to give up a ton of money (or force a S&T) then why not do it to play alongside LeBron and Wade? The thing is, if the Heat were to jettison a star, they'd really need to jettison Wade not Bosh given the state of his knees. I don't see how Melo really helps them more than Bosh next year, but there is a rumor spreading that if Bosh leaves for Houston Melo steps in to form the new big three in Miami. The theory makes little sense to me, but there's so much smoke around this theory that it makes me wonder if there's some truth to it. It also jives with Melo's decision taking longer than expected. The thing is for this to workout, you'd expect James would have to tell Bosh he wants him to go somewhere else to make room for Melo unless he just toys with his own decision until Chris gets frustrated enough to go make his own decision without him. How could he do that? By using Cleveland and implying he's out the door of course. Maybe a bit too tin foil hat, but it makes you wonder. The other reasons Melo is waiting around are much more fun to entertain If it stands to reason that a delay in Melo's decision means it's less likely that he's choosing New York, then the Bulls are still obviously in play. Mark Deeks has noted that the Bulls can S&T for Melo and get his starting salary up to 20 million dollars by moving Dunleavy, Snell, Smith, Hinrich (S&T), Nazr (S&T) + non guaranteed dudes for Carmelo without them having to give up Butler, Gibson, or take back Boozer. Of course picks would need to be thrown in, but this scenario also leaves open the MLE for Mirotic. Personally, I think this scenario is a bit unlikely. Instead, I think the Knicks would look to include Boozer along with enough other salary so that the Bulls could take back J.R. Smith as the Knicks would love to get his salary off the books. If Melo chooses Chicago, then there's some question over whether the Knicks would consent to a S&T. My view is they would. I don't think Anthony is such a megastar that you fight to keep him at all costs. His max deal for NY was a big question mark in terms of value anyway, and I think the Knicks fans would turn on him too much if he announces he wants to go to the Bulls (or anywhere else). At that point, you get the most value you can, even if it's just unloading J.R. Smith and getting a couple 1st rounders. In this scenario, the Bulls would need to remain under the apron to make a sign and trade work, but effectively if you move Boozer + Non guaranteeds + Dunleavy + (Snell or Randolph) the Bulls can make this roster fit under the Apron: Player Salary Carmelo $20,000,000 Derrick Rose $18,862,876 Joakim Noah $12,450,000 Taj Gibson $8,000,000 J.R. Smith $5,982,375 Mirotic $5,305,000 Jimmy Butler $2,008,748 Doug McDermott(unsigned 1st)$1,898,300 Anthony Randolph $1,825,359 Greg Smith $948,163 Kirk Hinrich $915,243 Vet Min #2 $915,243 Cameron Bairstow $507,336 Richard Hamilton (stretched) $333,333 Total $79,951,976 You could swap out Randolph and swap in Tony Snell and save a little more money if NY is indifferent or if Tony Snell isn't providing you enough value in the trade that it makes sense. You don't necessarily need to move Dunleavy to the Knicks in this situation either. He could be moved elsewhere, and there are likely a great number of teams that would love to take on his deal for cap room and possibly give up a 2nd rounder for him. Mirotic may also cost less than the full MLE which is what I put his number at, and of course it's possible the Bulls could swing a S&T without taking back JR Smith as well, but taking back Smith makes the deal far more palatable to NY in terms of taking back salary this year as it provides them even more flexibility next season and balances out the total money for them considerably more (ie, less assets going NYs way). I've included Kirk at the minimum salary, but other players could come in his place at the minimum. It's clear we'd need a point guard at the minimum though and would likely look to fill in a point guard for both minimum salaried contracts. With the Apron set at 81 million most likely (possibly could move slightly when official numbers are released). The Bulls would probably have room to offer D.J. Augustin the Bi-Annual exception of around two million dollars in place of the final vet minimum salary, but given the current FA market, it's hard to see D.J. not finding a better offer elsewhere. Now here's a roster that could contend for a championship, and if Melo chooses Chicago and NY goes along with a sign and trade as I expect they would, this roster could be pretty close to the reality. If I'm NY, I'm not in love with what I get back in a S&T, but say the Bulls offer up the Kings pick, their 2015 pick, Tony Snell, and take back J.R. Smith? I'm probably good with that. For Melo's best chance to win, he needs to start by picking Chicago, and he needs to finish by convincing NY to do a S&T to get him there. Lengthening his decision making process sure would help that happen too. Melo's hold out on his decision could mean almost anything. I predict only about a 20% chance that the Bulls land Carmelo, but there are certainly some creative ways it can happen that give the Bulls a tremendous team if it does. 3.Projecting Carmelo Anthony's future with each team http://ppt.cc/iwHx 大意： 这篇就是在说甜瓜人生各种可能的剧本结局，有兴趣的可以看看。 There's a narrative in NBA free agency that top-tier players must choose between one of two options: money or a ring. For whatever reason, those two scenarios for a player's future endeavors are considered mutually exclusive, with the common belief being that taking more money creates a bigger salary-cap hit, that a player considering free agency is doing so because his current team's outlook appears bleak and, thus, has a worse chance of winning if said player re-ups with his team (a team which, because of Bird Rights, can offer more years and money than any other team). And this summer, Carmelo Anthony certainly falls under this category. It appears the race for the seven-time All-Star's services has been narrowed to three teams: the Bulls, the Knicks and the Lakers. The Knicks may offer Anthony a maximum contract worth $129 million over five years, the Lakers can offer him a max deal worth $94 million over four years and the Bulls can offer him a four-year deal worth roughly $73 million, assuming Gar Forman moves some pieces around (CSN's Kevin Anderson breaks it all down here). [RELATED: Bulls adjusting on the fly in free agency] The Bulls can offer less money, but with Derrick Rose returning, Doug McDermott on board and a team that just won 48 games Anthony's best chance at that elusive ring resides in Chicago. At least as far as next year goes. While the Lakers and Knicks are both in relative rebuilding phases (the Knicks won 37 games and are in salary-cap hell, while the Lakers managed 27 wins in a brutal Western Conference) next year, Anthony is playing for more than 2015. And with that, here's a look at the futures of the three teams Anthony is reportedly considering and where they stand to compete over the course of Anthony's hypothetical contract. New York Knicks If Anthony stays in New York on a maximum contract, the Knicks will be all but done in the free agency period. They'd be on the books for nearly $80 million in 2014-15, brushing up closely against the expected hard cap of $81 million. But the Knicks' pitiful 2014-15 outlook has been known for quite some time; Phil Jackson is building his team around next year's offseason when they'll have room to add another maximum contract, which in a best-case scenario could be Tony Parker, Rajon Rondo or Kevin Love. In 2016 they could even go after Kevin Durant, though it's hard to see the reigning MVP leaving Oklahoma City anytime soon. [RELATED: Bulls reportedly a finalist with Knicks, Lakers for Carmelo] So while as many as seven players' contracts could go off the books in 2015, the Knicks also have developing youth. Iman Shumpert will be paid in 2015, while youngsters Shane Larkin, Tim Hardaway Jr. and 2014 second-round pick Cleanthony Early all have solid upside to go with Jose Calderon being under contract through 2017. The Knicks also have their first-round pick in 2015, and should they struggle in 2014-15 (a likely scenario) that pick will return a top prospect. It's also impossible to look past what Jackson can do. The Zen Master has 11 shiny championship rings he can place on a table at any free-agency meeting and he's placed his faith in Derek Fisher as head coach. Los Angeles has plenty of history and Chicago touts the best player of all-time, but should Anthony choose New York his team would be run by one of the best minds in basketball who will have plenty of freedom to upgrade the roster the next few years. Los Angeles Lakers Taking a page out of the Miami Heat's book, the Lakers completely gutted their roster this summer with nine unrestricted free agents. As of now they have six players on their roster, led by Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, and first-round pick Julius Randle (Robert Sacre, Kendall Marshall and Jordan Clarkson are the others). Granted, Bryant will make $23.5 million next year despite coming off a six-game 2013-14 season, but the Lakers still have plenty of cap space with which to work. Multiple reports have surfaced that the Lakers are interested in bringing back unrestricted free agent Pau Gasol should Anthony sign in Los Angeles, and while it would lack youth a "Big Three" of Bryant, Anthony and Gasol to go with Randle would give the Lakers one of the best cores in the league (assuming Bryant's health). [RELATED: What the Bulls can do if they fail to land Melo] Bryant's future is the elephant in the room, as the Lakers really won't be able to let him walk after 2016 yet he'll command big money, presuming he doesn't fall off from a production standpoint in the next two years. If he still wants to play in 2016-17, the Lakers will find themselves in a situation the Heat are dealing with in Dwayne Wade. Still, the Lakers may have room to go after a third star in the coming years (Kevin Love?) to build around, though they are sending a top-5 protected first round pick to Phoenix in 2015. Bryant plays a huge role in all this, but it appears - at least in reports - that Anthony is strongly considering becoming the heir apparent to Bryant's Hall-of-Fame career. Chicago Bulls Perhaps the biggest headliner that came from Anthony's impressive visit to Chicago was that he watched Derrick Rose in a scheduled workout. Whether that was as big a deal as it was made out to be, Rose's health is the biggest question mark concerning the Bulls' future. But considering Russell Westbrook's and Rajon Rondo's successes post-serious knee injury, it's a safe assumption that the 25-year-old Rose will return to his old self in 2014-15. Past the Chicago native's health, Joakim Noah is playing the best basketball of his career while Taj Gibson, if he isn't included in a sign-and-trade for Anthony, will enter the starting lineup with serious momentum. That core automatically puts the Bulls near the top of the Eastern Conference; even if LeBron James signs in Miami, only the Heat and Pacers would be real threats in the East. [RELATED: Examining the Bulls' targets in free agency] It's unknown who would have to depart in order to make Anthony's contract work in Chicago, but in a best-case scenario the Bulls would hold on to Gibson and Jimmy Butler while also adding rookie Doug McDermott on the perimeter. It's unknown how Spanish forward Nikola Mirotic would fit in financially with Anthony in the mix, but the 23-year-old has significant upside and would add a deep threat to a team that needed it a year ago. Any combination of the aforementioned role players would put together a championship contender in Chicago, and their window would be wide open with Rose, Gibson and Anthony all under contract through at least 2017 and Noah through 2016. And under the guidance of Tom Thibodeau, there's no reason to believe the Bulls won't continue competing in the East, perhaps to a championship level with Anthony on board. --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 124.109.116.72 ※ 文章网址: http://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/ChicagoBulls/M.1404837484.A.AAA.html 我倒觉得还好，只要找不到能够处理Boozer合约的对象，这三个人都超出我们的能力 范围，因为Boozer特赦後的10M左右，有5-6M要拿来签Mirotic，而上面的那三人都有 大手笔的买家在等着。 假设这个暑假，我们留住DJA+Kirk，然後补进McDermott+Mirotic+Stuckey，我想问看 看大家觉得会到很惨吗？ 他目前要到9-11M。 ※ 编辑: AhUtopian (124.109.116.72), 07/09/2014 02:51:39