Source: http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blog/NickPiecoro/151087 翻译请往下走... Kubel pickup raises questions The focus all off-season has been on pitching – on upgrading the rotation, on further reinforcing the bullpen. And even after trading for Trevor Cahill and signing Takashi Saito in the past 10 days, it still seemed as though the Diamondbacks were focused on arms. And then they turned around and agreed to terms with outfielder Jason Kubel on a two-year, $15 million deal. It's an interesting signing, both because it came out of nowhere and because of the questions it raises, most of which revolve around incumbent left fielder Gerardo Parra. Do the Diamondbacks have that little faith in Parra's offensive ability? Do they intend to trade him? The answer to the first question almost certainly is a resounding yes. And, in many ways, I don't blame them. I've gone back and forth on Parra throughout his career, wondering if he'd ever be able to hit enough to be an everyday corner outfielder. He never had much power, never had much of a knack for getting on base and never was too successful against left-handed pitching. Without those things, his value as an outfielder was tied into his defense, and since he was limited to a corner position, his value was diminished. But he did a lot of things well this season. He obviously was a tremendous defender, rating well in all the advanced metrics and passing the eyeball test , evidenced by his Gold Glove award. He fared better against lefties. He hit eight home runs, equaling his career total entering the year. And he even posted a decent on-base percentage, though that number might not look so good when his 16 intentional walks (a product of batting eighth) are factored out. Yes, he's still young (24), but I wouldn't blame the Diamondbacks if they thought this might be as good as Parra gets. He doesn't seem to recognize how to pull the ball with consistency, greatly limiting his power. He tends to give a lot of at-bats away. He's a ground-ball hitting machine. Still, there are reasons to raise your eyebrows with this signing. Kubel is not a good defender – in fact, the metrics say he's much worse than“not good.” He's been 17 runs below average (per UZR/150 games) in 3,087 career innings. Parra, meanwhile, has been 11.1 runs above average as a left fielder. Is Kubel's bat good enough to off-set that kind of defensive loss? Moreover, the Diamondbacks' pitching staff is filled with flyball pitchers. Daniel Hudson, Ian Kennedy and Josh Collmenter all skew that way. (Cahill is an exception.) Plus, there seems to be more ground to cover in the outfields of NL West ballparks than any other division. The outfield defense provided by Parra, Chris Young and Justin Upton was a big reason why that fly-ball heavy staff was able to post such solid numbers across the board and why the Diamondbacks won 94 games last season. Kubel clearly isn't a perfect fit. But if he gets back to hitting the way he did in 2009, he'd probably make up for the loss in defense, especially if you think Parra's 2011 offensive season was the outlier and not the norm. And if the Diamondbacks were worried Hiroki Kuroda wasn't going to land here, anyway, how else were they going to get better on a short-term commitment? Carlos Beltran is 35 and, I'm guessing, will require a three-year deal. A higher ceiling, yes, but is that a wiser investment than the 29-year-old Kubel? Honestly, I'm not sure. But from reading the web analysis today, my fence- sitting perspective seems to be the minority. We'll see how it plays out. 整个季後的聚焦一直锁定在投手轮值升级，进一步强化牛棚，尽管在过去10天先交易来 Cahill後签下斋藤大叔，小蛇似乎仍然想补强投手。 然後他们却转向，同意以两年15M签下外野手Kubel。 这是个有意思的签约，一是因为无迹可循，二是因为其所引起的问题大多围绕着现任的 左外野手Parra。 是小蛇对Parra的攻击能力没信心？还是想交易掉他？ 第一个问题的答案几乎毫无疑问是yes，在很多方面来说，我并不会怪小蛇。 我反覆思索Parra的生涯，想知道他的打击是否能足够胜任每天上场的角落外野手，他从 来没不以爆发力着称，从来没有很强的上垒本领，对左投从来没有表现的很成功；没有 这些东西，他身为一名外野手的价值只跟防守有关，而且因为他受限於防守角落位置， 价值也因此变低。 但是本季他在很多方面都表现没话说。他很明显地是个顶尖的防守者，在进阶数据上的 排名很好，通过眼球测试，这从获得金手套奖即可得证；面对左投时打的比较好了，整 年敲的8发HR是他过去生涯的总和，甚至缴出颇像样的上垒率，虽然这个数字在排除16次 故意四坏後，看来就不是那麽的好。 是的，他24岁仍然年轻，但我不会怪小蛇，如果他们认为Parra能做到的就是这些事情而 已。他似乎不知道如何运用协调性进行拉打，大大影响他的爆发力；他奉送了很多打数 ，他是个滚地球制造机。 尽管如此，这个签约还是有其他使你深感惊讶的理由。Kubel的防守并不好，事实上，数 据显示他的防守差到连"不好"都谈不上，生涯3087守备局数中所产生的UZR，相较於一般 外野手，Kubel会让投手多丢17分，而守左外野的Parra却能为投手多守住11.1分！ 那Kubel的棒子好到够抵销他在防守上的失败吗？ 此外，小蛇的投手阵容多为飞球型，Hudson、Kennedy和Collmenter都偏这派，Cahill则 是例外。而且，国联西区球场的外野面积都较其他分区为大... Parra、Young、Upton提供的外野防守，是小蛇的重度飞球型投手们在今年能缴出如此优 异数据，并拿下94胜的重要原因。 Kubel坦白讲不是最适合的人选，但如果他的攻击能回到2009年的水准，大概能弥补其防 守上的缺陷，尤其是假设你认为Parra在2011年的攻击火力只是昙花一现的话。 如果小蛇担心黑田桑不会加盟，无论如何，他们要怎麽作才会获得短期内较好的回报？ 我猜35岁的Beltran将需要一份三年合约，是得花较多钱没错，但比起29岁的Kubel，会 是个较聪明的投资吗？ 老实说，我不确定。但是今天读完网站分析文後，我的中立观点似乎仅是少数人的看法， 就让我们看下去吧.... --

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