我直接发EMAIL问了汪中和老师，老师回信给了我以下的资讯，但老师没有直接回答我的 质疑。 下面的文章简单来说，就是有学者质疑IPCC的推估太保守，学者认为海水面上升在2100 年时，一定超过一公尺。 但是，看完文章的人应该都会觉得，那些话不就只是嘴炮？而没有实际数据跟计算。 唯独有一句话值得参考，就是IPCC承认他们「未将南极与格陵兰融冰列入计算」，我相信 这一定会影响海水面上升速度的推估，但到底影响多少？不知道！ 回头再看一次媒体报导的内容，『IPCC预测...』，事实上IPCC的预测就算有错，他也是 预测不到一公尺，我们不能自己把别人对IPCC的批评「移花接木」为『IPCC预测...』吧？ 我认为环境变迁应该以传递正确资讯为第一优先，而不是以「夸大」或「以讹传讹」的 新闻报导来譁众取宠，例如「太平洋岛国土瓦鲁即将被淹没，全国移民」的新闻，就把 「移民」这个「可能」，当成「正在进行」的消息来报导，只为了新闻标题能「耸动」。 如果因为我英文不好，误解了些什麽，还请大家不吝指证，谢谢～ Sea level rise underestimated: scientists Wednesday, 11 March 2009 The UN's climate change panel may have severely underestimated the sea level rise caused by global warming, say a group of climate scientists. "The sea level rise may well exceed 1 metre by 2100 if we continue on our path of increasing emissions," says Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, speaking at the International Scientific Congress on Climate Change in Copenhagen. "Even for a low emission scenario, the best estimate is about 1 metre,"he says. The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 predicted global warming would cause sea level to rise by between 18 and 59 centimetres this century. The IPCC said at the time the estimate could not accurately take into account factors such as the melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Many scientists criticised the number as too conservative. "The ice loss in Greenland shows an acceleration during the last decade," says Greenland researcher Professor Konrad Steffen, director of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado, Boulder. "The upper range of sea level rise by 2100 might be above 1 metre or more on a global average, with large regional differences depending where the source of ice loss occurs," he says. Early action CSIRO researcher Dr John Church, who is also with the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research in Hobart, says rising oceans will lead to more frequent devastating floods in coastal areas. The faster humans limit carbon dioxide emissions, the greater the chance to avoid the most extreme scenarios, he says. "We could pass a threshold during the 21st century that can commit the world to metres of sea level rise," says Church. "Short-term emission goals are critical." Early reductions of emissions are much more effective than actions later in the century, the scientists say. "With stiff reductions in 2050 you can end the temperature curve (rise) quite quickly, but there's not much you can do to the sea-level rise anymore," says Rahmstorf. "We are setting in motion processes that will lead to sea levels rising for centuries to come." ※ 引述《nmns (强哥)》之铭言： : ※ 引述《j3236494cg (茄子)》之铭言： : : 台湾本世纪末 逾一成国土将泡水中 : : 自由时报 更新日期:2009/09/02 04:09 : : 汪中和更指出，ＩＰＣＣ预测本世纪结束前 : : ，全球海平面将至少上升一公尺，台湾会有一 : ^^^^ : : 成沿海或低洼地区被淹没，宜兰沿海、台北 : : 盆地、桃竹沿海、彰化、云林、嘉义、台南、 : : 高雄、林边、佳冬、台东，都是被淹没的高 : : 风险区。台湾山区及沿岸的环境危机夹击民众 : : 生存空间，该怎麽办？值得深思。 : : http://tw.news.yahoo.com/article/url/d/a/090902/78/1qaja.html : 根据IPCC的预测 : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_sea_level_rise#Future_sea_level_rise : 最夸张的情况下，到2100年时海水面上升也「不超过」一公尺， : 上文中「至少」一公尺，究竟是汪中和老师所说，还是记者自己的夸大呢？ --

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