作者BunkerHill (Don't tread on me.)
看板EarthScience
标题Re: [地震] 海地M7.0地震
时间Thu Jan 14 17:40:23 2010
※ 引述《Phalange (Regina Phalange)》之铭言：
: 看到有趣的文章
: Experts warned of earthquake risk on Haiti
: By Brandon Griggs, CNN
: http://tinyurl.com/y9x48qm
: 原来这次地震去年已经有科学家预言了，还发表成论文。
这不是预言
是说这个地区的构造具有发生规模7.2地震的潜能
该篇文章作者自己说的话
"The problem with these kinds of strikes is that they can remain quiescent
-- dormant -- for hundreds of years," he said Tuesday evening. "So it's hard
to predict when they'll occur."
研讨会摘要
ENRIQUILLO-PLANTAIN GARDEN STRIKE-SLIP FAULT ZONE:
A MAJOR SEISMIC HAZARD
AFFECTING DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, HAITI AND JAMAICA
http://www.ig.utexas.edu/jsg/18_cgg/Mann3.htm
...Recorded seismicity over the past 40 years is sparse as expected from a
"fully locked fault plane". GPS-constrained block models with elastic strain
accumulation give ~8 mm/year of slip rate on the fault.....
--
※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 140.123.2.6
1F：推 blatta:规模预测到了，但是防灾最想预测的「时间」目前还不行oTZ 01/15 16:24