: 推 McGyver:所以我的下一个疑问是 规定开始要采用差别利率 会不会其实 04/06 13:11 : → McGyver:效果还是一样？ 还是只有那些高风险的人去借而已？ 04/06 13:11 I think.. you are a student you are asking a question which is not a question In the real world, there are not economic theories everywhere. And never try to put all phenomena into economic theories ------------------------------------------------------------------- The key risk factor is transformation. Transform "application form" into "score card" Transform "score card" into "interest rate spread" If you have run any econometric model, you would find that adjuested R square running up to 60% or 70% already have powerful explanatory ability. Suppose the adjusted R squre represtnts the forecasting accuracy of bad debt ratio and we have a adjusted R square of 75%. And the accurate bad debt ratio is 15%. Therefore you forecast the bad debt ratio is 11.25% How much margin spread should you charge if the current (saving) interest rate is 1% the recovery rate is 0%, and there is no friction cost? 1+1%=(1+R)(1-15%) ---> R=18% 1+1%=(1+r)(1-11.25%)---> r=13.8% The adverse selection exists because banks cannot identify who is the lemon; therefore banks face only downside risk and cannot enjoy upside benefit. It's no surprise banks suffer from low forecasting accuracy. How can you judge the credit of the debtor only by a paper? But it should be the destiny of the cash card (and credit card) Card card features its convenience and simplicity. If banks want to increas its forecasting accuracy of bad debt ratio and adopt different spread levels, they would enhance the credit investigation process. But if banks ehance the process, it is not cash card any more. ------------------------------------------------------------------- The key is not adverse selection. Banks cannot forecast the bad debt ratio well now. How can they adopt different spread levels? So..forget the spread levels. It's only an unreachable gift. --

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