: Thanks for correcting my grammar. It is helpful to me. Thank you very much. : A question here is the relationship between interest rate and stock market. : Recently, I read two papers (Rapach et al., 2005; Rapach & Wohar, 2006) : about the predicting stock returns with macro and financial variables. : Using monthly and quarterly data, the empirical results show that the lag of : interest rate can predict the stock returns, and the regression coefficient is : negative and significant. However, the R-squared is pretty low. : Thus, you are right in the argument that it is not easy to predict the stock : returns even the regression coefficient is significant. However, according to : the previous literature, the relationship for these two variables is negative. : In fact, there are two potential problems in previous studies. First, they use : lag of interest rate (term rate, default spread, shot rate, relative rate) to : predict stock returns, so they find a negative relationship between the interest : rate and stock returns. If we use the simultaneous regression model, we may : find a different story (However, I think this possibility is relative low). : Second, previous studies use the level interest rate to predict stock returns. : As we know, the interest rate might be a non-stationary process. There may : exist a spurious regression in the previous studies. Similarly, I think this : potential econometric problem is considered in Rapach et al (2005) and : Rapach and Wohar (2006) since Rapach familiarizes with econometric model. : I am not an economist. I just point out the potential problems. : So if you have any comment or suggestion on this issue, I will very happy : to discuss with you. Moreover, if you are interested in this issue, : I have the data used in Rapach et al (2005) and Rapach and Wohar (2006) so that : I can share with you. : Thanks agian for correcting my errors. If I have any error in this article, : you are welcome to point out that. : Sincerely, : H-S Lee 我的回答只是由实证研究的角度来说明落後一期的利率如何对股市影响。 如果你看不懂，请告知我，我帮您解释， 如果您发现文法错误，请纠正我，我可以修改。 我想，这个议题大家有自己的看法， 我只是引起用过去文献，告知大家这个议题过去的研究结果， 和过去研究的潜在问题。 大致是这样。 关於英文写作，我必须还是要练习啦，请大家包含和指导， 有问题尽管提出，我会修改。 --

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