原文连结 http://tinyurl.com/lclh2d4 (给直接跳到这篇的读者) THERE are many broad footballing styles. “Long-ball”—in which the midfield is bypassed as defenders shunt the ball towards a muscular striker—is particularly associated with some English sides. “Catenaccio”, whereby a team relies on a strong defence to absorb pressure before launching a counter-attack, is a label often applied to Italians. The “pressing game”, which requires teams to harry opponents high up the field, now seems to be the tactic de jour throughout much of Europe. 这世界上有很多对於足球特色的大分类方向。 "长球": 略过中场，透过防守球员直接将球送给半兽人前锋。 常常被认为是一些英国球队的特色 "Catenaccio": 球队再找到好的防守反击机会前，倚赖坚强的防守来吸收对方的压迫。 通常是义大利球队的特色标签 "压迫足球": 不断的逼迫催促对手，似乎现在是多数欧洲球队的策略主流 (注: de jour代表 for the day，可以用在本日菜单这种，或者是一段时间内的主流) But few individual teams can boast a style of play so distinct that a term must be coined to describe it and it only. The Tottenham Hotspur side which won the English league in 1950-51 is alone in being described as the team of “push and run”. Talk about “total football” and everyone will know you are referring to the Ajax side that dominated Europe in the early 1970s (or, perhaps, the Dutch national side of that era which included many players brought through the Ajax team). And, in the modern game, there is Barcelona and “tiki taka”. 然而，很少球队可以把单把一项特色做到很好，使得大家想到这个球队只与这项特色连结 (少数的例子比如) 赢下50-51年赛季的热刺被描述成 "打带跑" (Push and Run)球队。 说到"全能足球"，大家都知道你在说1970年代主宰欧洲足球的阿贾克斯 (或是当时的荷兰国家队，在阵中有多名阿贾克斯球员)。 在现代比赛中，我们有巴萨隆纳跟Tiki-Taka这样球队与战术特色的连结 Defining a unique football style can be like defining obscenity—you know it when you see it. But it is difficult to quantify exactly how different a team such as Barcelona is compared with its peers. Goals are the currency of football, but they tell us little about teams’ modi operandi. People might come up with a broad shorthand—that, in the case of tiki taka for example, maintaining possession of the ball is the defining characteristic. This is certainly true: Barcelona went an incredible 317 consecutive games in which they had more than 50% possession. However, they aren't unique in trying to accomplish this, they are merely better at it. 定义一项"与众不同"的足球风格有点像是自我脑补(Obscenity是意淫的意思 太难翻了) 你在球场上看到，你知道它正在发生。但是很难透过数据化来展现到底这个球队的战法 跟别人到底有甚麽不同。进球才是硬道理，然而进球并没有告诉我们太多球队的 "操作手法" 人们可能开始使用一些简单的纪录。举例来说: 辨别Tiki-Taka，维持控球成为一种 指标性特色。这当然没错: 巴萨隆纳缔造了连续317比赛有超过50%的控球率。 但是，(单就控球率来说)他们并不独特，他们只是做得更好一些而已。 So is it possible to define tiki taka through statistics? Laszlo Gyarmati of the Qatar Computing Research Institute and two colleagues have made a promising start. The group conducted an analysis of the passing patterns of every team in Europe’s five biggest leagues—England, Spain, Germany, France and Italy—during the 2012-13 season. One of their tools was principal component analysis, a technique which measures the relative influence of factors within a set of data, rather than just plotting those data on standard axes. The resulting paper was presented at the KDD Workshop on Large-Scale Sports Analytics. 那到底可不可透过统计来定义tiki-taka呢？ 卡达电算研究中心的Laszlo Gyarmati 做出了一项有前景的先导研究。 他的研究团队，分析2012-13赛季，欧洲五大联赛(英西德法义)各队的传球型态。他们 的其中一项研究工具为主成分分析(PCA: 详见前言)， (PCA是)在一组资料中，衡量相对重要性因素的一种工具。 这样的技巧使得图表部仅仅只是把资料点放在一般的座标轴上。 研究报告发表在........ In a three-pass sequence there are five possible combinations. When he receives a pass, a player can either return the ball whence it came or move it to a different member of his side. That player can then pass it back to either of the two people who have already been involved in the move or to someone new. These strings of passes can be represented as: ABAB, ABAC, ABCA, ABCB and ABCD. For longer periods of possession, component three-pass sequences were analysed (in a four-pass move, for example, there are two separate strings of three passes). 在三次传球的次序下，可以有五种不同的组合。 当一个球员接到队友传来的球，他可以回敲，或者是把求挪给在另外一侧的队友。那位 队友可以把球回传给之前两位参与推进的任何一人，或者是把求再传给另外一位队友。 这些传球的组合简化成 ABAB, ABAC, ABCA, ABCD. 如果超过三传，那麽研究人员就会把他们拆成两个三传步骤。比如说，如果是四次传球 就会变成前三传跟後三传两个不同的三传步骤) (举例: ABABC: 就会变成 ABAB 跟 BABC两组) As the chart above shows, when viewed in this way, all teams across Europe's five big leagues cluster around a remarkably similar style; differences between them can be plotted, but there are no outliers. Except one. Of the 98 sides (and over 1m passes) that were studied, Barcelona, the researchers found, really do have a style all of their own. They are characterised by a much greater propensity to play ABAC and ABCB passing sequences, as well as ABAB (a trait they share with more teams). In other words, having passed the ball, a player is very likely to receive it back straight away. 如上图所示，如果透过PCA来分析，几乎所有的欧陆五大联盟的球队都"聚"有相似的特徵 (我故意用"聚"反映cluster) 分布图上他们的差异可以看得出来，但是没有离群值。 除了一家球队: 巴萨隆纳。 在98队，超过一公尺的传球分析中，巴萨隆纳的确有他们自己的特色。 他们更倾向使用ABAC和ABCB传球，再来就是ABAB(不过这点是更多队使用) 换句话说，球员把球传出去之後，他们会期待他们又马上得到回传球。 Man on! This puts the onus on the player passing the ball, who is likely to have an opponent challenging him, then to move quickly so as to take the return. Logic also strongly suggests it means prioritising possession over a quick, forward progression, as the action occurs across a smaller area (although this is not explicitly proved by the study). 这让传球的球员同时也肩负更多责任。 传球球员通常已经有人盯着，所以把球传出之後他们也得跑动，(甩开盯防球员) 已取得回传球。这样的逻辑也隐含，相较於向前推进，他们更重是持球。 因为这样的作为大部分发生在比较小的区域。(虽然研究结果没有明显表示出这点) Dr Gyarmati foresees powerful practical applications for this method. The most promising area is probably player recruitment. Armed with a quantitative measure of playing style, teams could break down how well potential acqusitions are likely to fit in. That would enable them to identify players who would be particularly well-suited to join their existing roster, and thus likely to make a contribution in excess of their pay cheques. Gyarmati博士预期这研究方法有强大的实务应用空间。最有前景的可能在球员采购上。 透过数据呈献的特色，球队可以从细部分析潜在购买的球员是否能够融入球队。 这项工具辨别可以配合球队现有名单的球员，可以让球队买到物超所值的球员。 It also suggests, at least in this instance, that being an outlier works. The Barcelona side of tiki taka was the most successful of its age, winning three Champions League titles since 2006 and Spain's La Liga four times in five seasons. But in the past couple of years, the pack has begun to catch up. Indeed, Bayern Munich, the side that many now consider the most likely to take Barcelona's mantle, play in a way clearly influenced by tiki taka—not least because they poached the Barcelona manager most associated with the style, Pep Guardiola. Just as in business, the only thing harder than coming up with a breakthrough innovation is keeping it out of the hands of the competition. 这也同时显示，至少透过这项研究结果，当个离群值是是有意义的。 巴萨隆纳的Tiki-Taka是同时期最成功的足球战略: 从2006年以来拿下3座欧冠，五个赛季中拿下4次联赛冠军。 但在过去几年，其他人正急起直追。拜仁慕尼黑目前是最有可能拿下巴萨的风采。 他们透过挖角巴萨的教练Pep Guardiola，采取受Tiki-Taka影响的球风。 就像商场：比突破性创新更困难的，是将这项创新持有在自己手里而不被竞争者拿到。 -- http://losimprevisibles.blogspot.com http://www.facebook.com/ThoseUnpredictable 在欧洲 看着钱跟数字 滚来滚去 有甚麽是说得准的呢? --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 213.34.69.213 ※ 文章网址: http://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/FCBarcelona/M.1420490160.A.164.html ※ 编辑: Ivanov (213.34.69.213), 01/06/2015 04:39:19