神原英资：日圆兑美元今年恐升抵70 政府不该干预( 2009/03/09 09:29 中央社 ) Bloomberg:Last Updated: March 9, 2009 02:45 EDT 哈哈，中央社的消息还比Bloomberg快几小时… 神原老头目前依然保持着几乎全胜的纪录，他让我想起日剧-Big Money的神准老头，我也 希望有个像他的师父，可惜找不到。我总觉得一个人是成是败，就看他跟的是谁。丹尼斯 失败收场，是因为他没有师父，他注定了孤独、独自承受压力，但海龟有了丹尼斯的照顾 ，却闯出了一片天… 我没看过预测的比神原准的大师，即使是索罗斯，都会有几个月的时间差，更别提过街老 鼠-罗杰斯了… 以下是他的新闻，各位可以慢慢验证： 连结：http://www.wretch.cc/blog/phigroup/15569389 日本汇神-神原英资-延伸阅读 2009.02.26 日本汇神-神原英资，我，又赢了！/Job 2009.02.23 汇市债市新闻/Job-神原英资：日圆近期贬至100 2009.01.20 别和日本汇神对作3-日圆上半年升破80/Job 2008.11.12 别和日本汇神对作2-日圆升至80/Job 2008.10.08 别和日本汇神对作！日本汇神：日圆年内到90/Job 2008.10.15 神原英资:泡沫是市场经济的宿命/Job 神原英资：日圆兑美元今年恐升抵70 政府不该干预 ( 2009/03/09 09:29 中央社 ) （中央社台北2009年3月09日电）素有日圆先生之称的日本前财务省官员神原英资表示， 日圆今年可能升抵70日圆兑1美元的历史高点，政府不应该干预阻升。 神原英资指出，市场仍受全球金融危机影响，日圆今年可能在100-70日圆之间大幅波动。 神原英资曾於1997-1999年期间任职目前的财务省。 日圆兑美元1月21日一度升抵87.13日圆兑1美元，随後展开6周贬势，并在3月5日触及 99.68。市场臆测日本经济恶化，投资人不再将日圆视为资金避风港。 神原英资上周接受彭博社专访时表示，日本与欧洲经济恶化情况比美国更严重，这代表日 圆汇价仍将震荡。 神原英资指出，尽管日圆将出现大幅震荡，但他认为没有干预必要，他也认为美国当局不 会容许干预行为。 日本政府上次干预汇市是在2003年，当时主管机关抛售20.4兆日圆 (2080亿美元)，以及 在2004年的第一季，当时日圆升抵103.42日圆兑1美元的水准。 目前任教於日本早稻田大学的神原英资表示，美元在至少未来5-10年可能仍维持储备货币 的地位，并强调欧元、日圆与人民币仍无法取代美元。 法国总统沙柯吉去年呼吁重新评估独尊美元为单一储备货币的全球汇率系统。 对此，神原英资则表示，现在不是考虑取代美元的储备货币的时候。 神原英资也呼吁中国进一步松绑汇率交易，并且避免任何市场操纵行为。 神原英资指出，一个干预汇市国家的货币是不可能成为国际所接受的储备货币。 Euro Trades Near One-Week High as ECB May Slow Rate-Cut Pace Email | Print | A A A By Ron Harui and Yasuhiko Seki March 9 (Bloomberg) -- The euro traded close to a one-week high against the dollar amid speculation the European Central Bank will slow the pace of interest-rate cuts, helping to keep the currency attractive. Europe’s single currency may rise for a second day against the greenback after ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark said reducing borrowing costs wouldn’t remedy the financial crisis and pushing rates too low may backfire. The Swiss franc fell against the dollar before a government report today that may show the nation’s unemployment rate rose to 3.4 percent in February, from 3.3 percent the previous month. “Expectations for a further interest-rate cut by the ECB have eased for now following last week’s reduction and recent comments by the bank’s officials, ” said Ryohei Muramatsu, Tokyo-based manager of Group Treasury Asia at Commerzbank AG, Germany’s second-largest lender. “This is triggering some buying back of the euro for now.” The euro was at $1.2636 as of 6:38 a.m. in London, after touching $1.2727 earlier, from $1.2653 late in New York on March 6. It traded at 124.14 yen from 124.34 yen. The Japanese currency stood at 98.24 against the dollar from 98.25 last week. The Swiss franc declined to 1.1615 against the dollar from 1.1577 in New York last week. “The financial crisis can’t be solved with rate cuts,” Stark said in an interview to be published in Luxembourg’s Tageblatt newspaper today. “Too low a rate level can even be counter-productive.” Lowest Limit Stark speaks at 10 a.m. in Luxembourg today and fellow board members Axel Weber and John Hurley will give speeches tomorrow. A benchmark lending rate of 1 percent as the “lowest limit,” Weber said on Feb. 24. Investors raised bets the ECB will keep its benchmark at 1.5 percent at its next meeting on April 2. The yield on the three-month Euribor three-month interest-rate futures due April climbed to 1.57 percent on March 6 from 1.56 percent on March 5. The euro may strengthen to $1.29 by year-end, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 52 economists and analysts. The yen earlier declined against the dollar after a government report showed Japan posted a current-account deficit in January for the first time in 13 years. The Japanese currency weakened after the Ministry of Finance said the world’ s second-biggest economy recorded a deficit of 172.8 billion yen ($1.76 billion), exceeding the median estimate for a 15.3 billion yen shortfall in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. ‘Lingering Concern’ “There is lingering concern about the trend of exports due to the continued global recession,” said Akio Yoshino, chief economist at Societe Generale Asset Management (Japan) Inc. in Tokyo. “Declines in exports mean less need for Japanese companies to repatriate sales generated outside Japan.” The World Bank said yesterday the global economy is likely to shrink for the first time since World War II, and trade will decline by the most in 80 years. The bank’s assessment is more pessimistic than an International Monetary Fund report in January predicting 0.5 percent global growth this year. Japan’s export-oriented economy shrank an annualized 12.7 percent last quarter, the government said Feb. 16, the biggest contraction since the 1974 oil crisis. Losses in the yen may be limited after Eisuke Sakakibara, formerly Japan’s top currency official, said it may rise to a record 70 against the dollar this year, and officials shouldn’t intervene. Mr. Yen The Japanese currency is likely to swing in a wide range between 100 and 70 versus the greenback in 2009 as markets remain volatile due to the global financial turmoil, said Sakakibara, known as “Mr. Yen” from his 1997-1999 tenure at the Ministry of Finance. “While the yen will move wildly in this range, I do not see any need for the intervention and I also believe that the U.S. authorities would not permit it,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg. Demand for the dollar may weaken on speculation the U.S. government will allow automakers to fail. President Barack Obama’s auto task force visits Detroit today amid Republican calls to let General Motors Corp. go bankrupt and waning public support for giving automakers the taxpayer loans they say they need to survive. Bankruptcy GM executives, who last year warned bankruptcy-based reorganization would have a catastrophic effect on customer confidence, are now more open to the idea of a structured bankruptcy, the Wall Street Journal reported on March 6, citing a person familiar with the company. “A Chapter 11 filing by GM should trigger dollar-selling in an initial reaction,” said Takashi Kudo, director of foreign-exchange sales in Tokyo at NTT SmartTrade Inc., a unit of Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp. “Negative developments in the U.S. financial sector may also weigh on sentiment toward the dollar.” The Dollar Index, which the ICE uses to track the greenback’s performance against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona, was little changed at 88.466. The index touched 89.624 last week, the highest level since April 2006. To contact the reporter on this story: Ron Harui in Singapore at [email protected]; Yasuhiko Seki in Tokyo at [email protected] <i>Last Updated: March 9, 2009 02:45 EDT</i> -- PHI金融梦想家 部落格 http://www.wretch.cc/blog/phigroup --

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