波音报告续篇: Shares of Boeing continue to climb. Since our June report, the stock price has tacked on another 5%. Year to date, the equity is up more than 35%, easily besting the Dow's return of about 15% over the same time frame. In our view, the outperformance mostly stemmed from Boeing's recent financial results, as well as investors' enthusiasm in regard to the company's near- and long-term outlook. The stock now appears expensive. Although we also like Boeing's prospects (discussed below), the issue is currently trading at more than 18 times our 2013 share-net estimate, which is far higher than recent annual levels, as well as the multiple we project to 2016-2018. Moreover, the equity is ranked just 3 (Average) for Timeliness and is already trading near the low end of our projected Target Price Range. In sum, we suggest that interested investors wait for a price correction before taking any new positions here. As for current stockholders, now may be a good time to take some profits, and allocate those funds to less richly valued equities. Nonetheless, Boeing's near- and long-term prospects remain solid. During the June quarter, the company delivered 169 commercial aircraft, compared to 150 in the year-earlier period. Thanks mainly to lower research & development expenditures, the operating margin widened. It also booked 481 net orders during the interim, which increased its backlog to 4,800 planes valued at $339 billion. Looking ahead, we expect more of the same, since passenger air travel should continue to increase at a decent annual rate. As a result, more airlines will possess the financial flexibility and desire to replace their aging fleets with new aircraft. Boeing, in anticipation, continues to expand production schedules for some of its most popular models, including the 737 and 777. The situation will only improve further once the problems with the 787 are worked out. We continue to believe that this next-generation aircraft will return to runways in the near future, and Boeing has already received 930 orders for this plane. All told, we project that Boeing's bottom line, helped by share repurchases, will expand at a healthy annual rate out to 2016-2018. Ian Gendler September 13, 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 87.46 92.30 108.12 113.35 124.15 Revenues per sh. 6.85 7.08 7.56 8.15 9.15 Cash-Flow per sh. 4.46 4.82 5.11 5.60 6.50 Earnings per sh. 1.68 1.68 1.76 1.94 2.00 Div'ds Decl'd per sh. 1.53 2.30 2.25 2.80 2.70 Cap'l Spending per sh. 3.76 4.72 7.76 11.35 15.45 Book Value per sh. 735.30 744.70 755.60 750.00 745.00 Common Shs Outst'g (mil) 14.74 14.48 14.34 NMF NMF Avg Ann'l P/E Ratio 0.94 0.91 0.91 NMF NMF Relative P/E Ratio 2.56 2.41 2.40 NMF NMF Avg Ann'l Div'd Yield (%) 64306.00 68735.00 81698.00 85000.00 92500.00 Revenues ($mil) 10.24 10.66 9.72 10.00 10.50 Operation Margin (%) 1727.00 1660.00 1811.00 1850.00 1900.00 Depreciation ($mil) 3311.00 3614.00 3903.00 4275.00 4900.00 Net Profit ($mil) 26.54 32.99 33.96 33.00 33.00 Income Tax Rate (%) 5.15 5.26 4.78 5.00 5.30 Net Profit Margin (%) 5177.00 8536.00 12327.00 15000.00 17000.00 Working Cap'l ($mil) 11473.00 10018.00 8973.00 8600.00 8000.00 Long-Term Debt ($mil) 2766.00 3515.00 5867.00 8500.00 11500.00 Shr. Equity ($mil) 25.63 29.02 28.16 26.00 26.00 Return on Total Cap'l (%) 119.70 102.82 66.53 50.50 42.50 Return on Shr. Equity (%) 74.40 67.42 43.99 33.00 30.00 Retained to Com. Eq. (%) 37.84 34.42 33.87 35.00 31.00 All Div'ds to Net Profit (%) Ratings* Financial Strength A++ Stock's Price Stability 75 Price Growth Persistence 75 Earnings Predictability 30 3 to 5 Year Projections Price Gain Ann'l Tot. Return High 140 5% 9.0% Low 105 NMF 2.0% 一般来说,这些报告都只适合中期投资者.短进短出不适用... -- 爱落红尘心已死，持刀抱剑了一生 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　刀狂剑痴　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 --

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