※ 引述《eslite12 (recta sequi)》之铭言： 我没找到 如果OP请版主D一下 2006.11.01　 中国时报 美期中选 共和党胜负指标：俄州、普莱斯 尹德瀚 十一月七日的美国期中选举，俄亥俄州可能再度成为左右民主与共和两党谁胜谁败的最大 关键。英国《泰晤士报》说，如果有一个政治人物和一个州，足代表布希总统和其共和党 今年所面对的各种问题，那就是俄亥俄州与其选出的联邦众议员黛博拉．普莱斯。二○○ 四年美国总统大选时，布希如果没拿下俄亥俄州，就输了选举。俄亥俄州选前被视为最难 分出胜负的一州，结果布希以得票率五一％赢了民主党凯瑞的四九％，而在普莱斯众议员 的第十五选区，布希与凯瑞的得票平分秋色。整体而言，俄亥俄州目前是共和党的天下， 两席联邦参议员都属共和党，十八席联邦众议员有十二席属共和党，州级的公职包括州长 和检察长等也全属共和党。过去从未有共和党的总统候选人能在输掉俄亥俄州的情形下入 主白宫。普莱斯众议员所属的十五选区，则是以俄亥俄州首府哥伦布市为主，哥伦布市是 座最典型的美国城市，其选民结构包括大学生、中产阶级和拉美裔移民。普莱斯以往在这 个选区可说是无往不利，目前系六连任众议员。 但这一切在今年都可能改变；俄亥俄州正陷入一场政治风暴，各种因素如共和党政治人物 一连串的贪腐丑闻，伊拉克战争，不得人心的总统，严重失业等加总起来，导致俄亥俄州 很可能成为期中选举最危险的「一级战区」。即将卸任的俄亥俄州共和党籍州长塔夫特去 年坦承违反该州公职人员操守法；俄亥俄州众议员奈伊三星期前承认贪腐罪名，坦承接受 共和党说客阿布拉莫夫安排的旅游和餐宴；普莱斯本人则因宣称涉及性骚扰丑闻的前共和 党籍众议员佛里是她的好朋友，也受到连带影响。日前普莱斯接受地方电台访问时，坦承 她今年陷入苦战。普莱斯个人支持伊拉克战争，但由她选区子弟兵所组成陆战队後备队第 十二连在伊拉克死伤惨重，已有廿五人阵亡，民调显示，哥伦布市的民意普遍反战。普莱 斯过去的得票率从未低於六○％，今年的民调至今仍落後民主党对手基洛伊，就整体而言 ，共和党在俄亥俄州可能减少三席众议员，为民主党夺回众院所需十五席的五分之一。政 治分析家罗森伯说：「俄亥俄州是显现共和党全国性问题的窗户。」 另外 BBC的这篇介绍有说到一些该州的性格 25.10.2004 BBC State profile: Ohio Ohio is a key battleground state in this election. Won narrowly by George W Bush in 2000, it has received lavish attention from the president, and Republicans boast an overwhelming majority of elected officials. The attention given to Ohio is not simply to gain its 21 electoral college votes. Ohio is important because it is seen as the epitome of modern America and the battleground of the Midwest.Its economy has mirrored national trends exactly. The 1990s brought falling unemployment, rising household incomes and growth in the service and high-tech sectors. It also has a typical urban-rural balance and an average ethnic mix. Still, it has been hit hard recently by manufacturing unemployment. The sector has lost more than 10% of its jobs since 2001. Culturally, Ohio has a large sample of Americans within its borders, largely because of the state's settlement by New Englanders to the north and Virginians to the south. There is still a sizeable difference, both politically and culturally, between the state's southern counties and its northern cities. This has made for an unpredictable balance. It was in the northern cities of Toledo and Cleveland that the 1930s Depression threatened to boil over into full-scale class warfare. But Ohio is also where William McKinley, who became president in 1896, built an alliance with labour that began 34 years of Republican national majorities.Since then political control has moved back and forth between the two main parties. Jimmy Carter had a crucial win here in 1976 and throughout the 1970s and 1980s Ohio leaned Democrat. The 1990s saw a reversal in the trend . Although Bill Clinton won Ohio twice, it was with very small margins and was probably helped by a strong showing by Ross Perot. In other elections Republicans have made significant advances. Significantly, this new political alignment appears to be springing from the same north-eastern areas that in the 1930s were a hotbed of New Deal radicalism. New industries have replaced the old and seem to have uprooted the old Democrat values. This will be an election result to watch. --

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