佛州几个最近的民调都显示Romney跟McCain支持度不分上下. usaelectionpolls.com的David Terr教授甚至直断由於在 S.C帮忙McCain分散Huckabee保守派选票的Thompson退选, Romney将因此得利赢得佛州初选.不过佛州有提前投票制度, 目前大约有40万选民已经提前投票,不少票可能在Fred Thompson 退选前已经投下,这部份Romney可能占不了太大的便宜.再加上 颇有群众魅力的佛州现任州长公开支持McCain,很有可能发 挥临门一脚的作用让McCain拿下佛州. 虽然共和党中有人质疑目前McCain都只能在举行开放式初选, 允许中间选民进来投票的州胜选,到了封闭式初选的大州如加州 跟纽约州很难讨好,不过民调显示McCain在加州跟纽约州的领 先幅度都很明显.1/29拿下佛州後,McCain在Super Tuesday大 胜的可能性将大幅增加,或许只有南方几个保守的州如田纳 西跟乔治亚会输给Huckabee. 个人很看好McCain赢得共和党总统初选,不过倒是要担心保 守派人士在大选另推人选抢右翼选票. The New York Times McCain, Long a G.O.P. Maverick, Is Gaining Mainstream Support By JOHN M. BRODER Published: January 28, 2008 http://0rz.tw/af3Br LADY LAKE, Fla. — Is John McCain, the maverick flyboy of the Republican Party, becoming the candidate of the Republican establishment? Mr. McCain, who has delighted in sticking his thumb in the eye of mainstream Republicans throughout his political career, is now accumulating a base of support among party regulars who see him as the strongest general election candidate in the remaining Republican field. The latest evidence came Saturday night with the endorsement of Florida’s popular Republican governor, Charlie Crist, which surprised even Mr. McCain. That state holds primary elections on Tuesday. In an interview Sunday, Mr. Crist said his endorsement was based on “trust and confidence and friendship,” as well as what he said were Mr. McCain’s unmatched national security credentials. But he also said he believed that Mr. McCain had the broadest appeal of the four major Republican candidates still standing and the best chance of beating the Democratic nominee in November. “I’ve been traveling the state, and in the last few days people have been taking this very seriously,” he said. “I think Tuesday will be very telling, and it will be a great day for Senator McCain.” The Crist endorsement came 24 hours after that of Senator Mel Martinez of Florida, a former general chairman of the Republican National Committee and a popular figure in Florida’s Cuban-American community. Mr. McCain has also won the support of a number of established party figures, including moderates like former Senators John C. Danforth of Missouri and Howard H. Baker Jr. of Tennessee and conservatives like Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma and former Representative Jack F. Kemp of New York. A year ago, Mr. McCain entered the nominating contest as the presumed front-runner, surrounded by a team of policy advisers and fund-raisers from the Bush administration and the two winning Bush campaigns. But the McCain effort imploded last summer in acrimony and financial ruin, and Rudolph W. Giuliani, a former New York mayor, and Mitt Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts, surged to the front of the pack. But Mr. McCain battled back, and many party leaders and Congressional colleagues rallied to his side after it became clear that he was again viable with his victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina. “Maybe some of it is because of friendship,” Mr. McCain said in an interview Sunday, “although that is the most overrated aspect of American politics. But some of it is because of electability.” He cited several polls that seemed to show him the strongest of the Republican candidates against the leading Democratic candidates, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Senator Barack Obama of Illinois. Mr. McCain also has a long list of newspaper endorsements, far more than any of his rivals. All this, of course, in part reflects the bandwagon effect in politics, the cold calculation by politicians that it is wise to get behind the front-runner, and the earlier the better. There is an element, too, of disdain for Mr. Romney, who has altered a number of positions he held as governor and who is running against Washington, which he has proclaimed “ broken.” Mr. Martinez, introducing Mr. McCain at a town-hall-style meeting at a retiree development here, about 45 miles northwest of Orlando, made the electability argument explicit. “It’s important that we win in November, and I think John McCain gives us the best chance to win in November,” he said, citing polls that show Mr. McCain would be the most competitive against the Democratic nominee. “We need John McCain to be the standard bearer,” Mr. Martinez said. But the apparent coalescing of much of the Republican establishment around Mr. McCain carries drawbacks as well. Many in the right wing of the party consider him an apostate and a certain loser in a general election. Rush Limbaugh, the conservative radio commentator, has warned that if Mr. McCain wins the nomination, “it’s going to destroy the Republican Party” because conservatives will desert in droves. Many object to his moderate views on immigration. Pro-business conservatives have attacked his positions on the environment, pointing to legislation Mr. McCain has co-sponsored to address climate change. Conservatives have also attacked his high-profile criticism of Republicans in Congress over pork barrel spending and of President Bush on the early conduct of the Iraq war. A spokesman for Mr. Romney, who is competing fiercely with Mr. McCain for votes in Florida’s primary on Tuesday, said the endorsement of Mr. Martinez was predictable because he and Mr. McCain had co-sponsored immigration legislation that many Republicans rejected as too lenient on illegal immigrants. Mr. Romney’s endorsement list tilts toward the conservative wing of the party. It includes Senators Thad Cochran of Mississippi and Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, Govs. Dave Heineman of Nebraska and Matt Blunt of Missouri and the conservative advocates David Keene and Paul Weyrich. One neutral state party Republican chairman, who insisted on anonymity to discuss the contest candidly, said that the endorsements might help validate Mr. McCain with some Republican voters, but they would turn off others. “It’s a tricky double-edged sword,” the official said. “They point out all the problems conservatives have with him.” The official added: “The real problem is, where is the base? He hasn’t won anywhere with just Republican votes. California is much more conservative on the Republican side, and so is New York, and those are closed primaries and he can’t count on independent or Democratic votes.” Steve Duprey, a former Republican chairman in New Hampshire who is now a McCain supporter, said that many establishment figures were falling in line behind Mr. McCain now after watching the campaign unfold. He said that his peers — state and county party leaders, precinct captains, local elected officials — were now starting to ask which candidate had the best chance of winning. “As the race has sorted itself out,” he said, “more and more people are coming to believe that John McCain has made a compelling case that he’s ready to lead on Day 1.” --

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