虽然说柯林顿夫妇的政治手腕高超，不过欧巴马能
够走到这个地步，相信其手下策士的本领也差不到
那里去。在接下来的壕沟战与党代表的精算，想
必这些策士仍然会扮演很重要的角色。
作者: swallow73 (swallow73) 看板: IA
标题: [新闻] Two tactical masters plot Democrat endgame
时间: Sun Feb 10 15:37:33 2008
Two tactical masters plot Democrat endgame
Paul Harris in New York
The Observer, Sunday February 10 2008
The slight figure, wearing a dark rumpled suit, stood in the cavernous press
room at the Chicago Hyatt Regency hotel. All across America, millions of
people had voted in 24 separate states, seeking a winner in the fight for the
Democratic nomination.
But David Plouffe, campaign manager for Barack Obama, was not talking of
grand strategy, or new policies or sweeping visions of a united America. He
would leave that to his candidate.
Instead Plouffe was talking statistics, crucial in winning the delegates that
decide the Democratic nominee. He had added up the estimated delegate totals
from Obama and Hillary Clinton's respective home states of Illinois and New
York. 'We should be net 15 up there,' he said, relaying the news to an eager
press pack.
Such wonkish minutiae do not make for great headlines. But they are now at
the heart of the epic battle unfolding between Clinton and Obama. It is a
fight not so much between the two duelling candidates, but between their top
staffers. It is over who can master the tiny intricacies of the remaining
races and the labyrinthine party rules that govern the contest.
It was not meant to be this way. In recent history one candidate has quickly
emerged from early contests and been declared the winner. Arcane delegate
counts did not matter. But that has all been thrown out of the window. A
massive ground war is breaking out across the rest of America as the
Democratic party realises this contest will go on for weeks, and probably
months, to come. It is a war of micro-managing that could end up being won by
the slimmest of margins. That was why when Plouffe announced his 15-delegate
positive result from Illinois and New York, he was smiling broadly.
The master of micro-strategy for Hillary Clinton's campaign is Mark Penn, an
obsessive pollster whose specialism is defining and identifying small
interest groups and then working out policies that will bring them into
Clinton's camp.
Penn, who has been a long-term confidant of Clinton and her husband, Bill, is
hugely influential in her campaign. His strategy might be ideally suited to
the battle ahead which will focus on a series of divergent states and their
complex shifting demographics.
He is a classic Washington insider, living in a $5m mansion in the plush
Georgetown district with his wife Nancy Jacobson. Penn's constant polling for
the campaign has been instrumental in shaping Clinton's strategic shifts -
especially on the war in Iraq - and is likely to continue monitoring the
thorny way ahead. Some see that attention to detail as vital in the coming
fight as voters turn to the policy-heavy Clinton over Obama's talent for
rhetoric that is heavy on inspiration but light on plans. 'It's an advantage
for Clinton, especially as the economy goes down. She's got specific policies
on so many concerns. Obama's team has more rethinking to do than Clinton's
has,' said Professor Shaun Bowler, a political scientist at the University of
California at Riverside.
At the same time a host of other talented staffers will be alongside Penn
seeking to negotiate Clinton's path through the battle. Chief among them is
Howard Wolfson, a hard-edged communications expert. While Penn supplies the
backstairs data and research, Wolfson is a sometimes ferocious operative not
afraid to go negative on his candidate's opponents. In a tight race, in which
handfuls of votes in key areas can make the difference between winning and
losing, Wolfson's combative style will be invaluable.
Like Penn he too is a long term member of Hillaryland - the network of close
advisers surrounding Clinton. He has been compared to Karl Rove, the
mastermind of President George W Bush's two presidential victories and a man
known equally for his aggression and attention to detail. Both men, and other
top staffers such as campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle, have already had to
cope with a shift in tactics. Clinton's team envisaged her path to the
nomination as an 'inauguration' but the stunning rise of Obama put paid to
that. Now, as the smoke from the early battles recedes, they are adjusting
yet again.
Lining up opposite Clinton's team are Obama's staff. Plouffe is the highly
competent campaign manager who has engineered stunning victories in Iowa and
South Carolina that have hauled the insurgent effort to level pegging with
Clinton. He has run political races before, netting impressive victories that
belie his quiet public persona.
But his real strength is his relationship with his business partner, David
Axelrod. Axelrod is Obama's top politicial consultant and perhaps the biggest
single strategic influence on Obama's staff. The tall, mustachioed figure is
a dominant presence in the Obama camp and his status is rapidly rising among
America's political classes as Obama's campaign surges onwards. The Jewish
journalist turned political operative was born in New York but went to
college in Chicago. It was there he came across Obama and the two have forged
a close political and personal relationship. Axelrod is seen as a master
media manager. His touch can probably be seen in much of the gushing press
that Obama has generated, even though journalists following his campaign
rarely get to interact on any level with the candidate. Indeed, though
Clinton is far more open to reporters tailing her every move, she is still
often portrayed as more distant and hostile. In terms of the 'media primary',
Axelrod has already won a massive victory for his candidate. As the campaigns
now invade states including Texas and Ohio, that few thought would ever play
a role in the competition, that wave of positive media will have arrived
before them. That could be crucial.
Yet the landscape of the coming fight is confused and difficult to predict
with any confidence. 'We are now into uncharted territory,' said Cary
Covington, a professor of political science at the University of Iowa.
The first battleground is demographics. The contests held so far have shown
that the Democratic party has split into two camps with each one often
dominant in distinct social groups. Following Clinton are women, white
working-class voters, the elderly and Hispanics. Backing Obama are black
voters, the young, college students and educated, often high-income, voters.
Yet, as Super Tuesday showed last week, the two camps are pretty much in a
numerical draw. Adding up all the votes cast across the nation last Tuesday
the score reads: Obama 7,070,977 votes against Clinton's 7,293,588. In
polling terms that is a razor-thin edge and to break it each candidate must
cut into the other's support bases.
Yet it is unlikely now that the Democratic nomination will be settled by any
'big momentum' that suddenly has one candidate's support collapsing. It means
that what matters is not winning states, but winning delegates. Clinton and
Obama are now engaged in a race for the 2,025 delegates needed to to be voted
the party's nominee at the convention in August in Denver. Currently the
score is 1,045 for Clinton and 960 to Obama.
At the moment the race looks to favour Obama in the short-term. This week,
races will be held in Virginia, Maryland and Washington DC whose populations
match Obama's main strengths. The so-called 'Potomac Primary', after the
river that abuts all three states, could see Obama edge into a lead. However,
after that come contests in delegate-rich big states, including Ohio and
Texas, in March. They could go in Clinton's favour. One possibility now being
discussed is the so-called 'Pennsylvania Scenario'. That state holds its
primary in April, after a long break from other major contests. That could
lead to a repeat of the sort of prolonged town-to-town campaigning in
Pennsylvania that marked the contest in the early states of Iowa and New
Hampshire. Such a massive effort will be a huge drain on the resources of
candidates, staffers and finances alike.
And it all might be in vain. For party rules also include some 796 super
delegates, who are party officials, Democratic congressmen and other office
holders. If public voting still leaves the battle for delegates unwon then
the real fight will take place on the phone as staffers and candidates seek
to plead, bully, browbeat and beg with individual super-delegates to get
their support.
Both candidates have staffers who are more than adept at such tactics.
Wolfson and Axelrod in particular are deeply well connected and have
'persuasive' talents. But it could be an ugly fight with a generation of
political reputations at stake. Just look at the case of Rahm Emanuel. The
Illinois congressman was heralded as a rising star after engineering the
Democratic win in the 2006 mid-term elections. As an Illinois politician he
is close to Obama. But he is also a long-term friend and ally of the Clintons
who mentored his early career. He is a super delegate. He has joked that he
is 'hiding under his desk' rather than make a hasty decision. That might be
safe for now. But eventually Emanuel - and many others - will have to pick a
side.
But it could also spell trouble for the Democratic base. After the entire
national party membership has voted, the result could end up being sealed
with backroom dealing between officials and political professionals. 'The
perception of that sort of wheeler-dealing could easily poison the process.
That has serious implications,' said Covington, the professor of political
science.
Watching all this unfold is John McCain, in effect the Republican nominee.
The contrast with the Republicans could not be more different. After a
fierce, and comparatively brief, battle the Republican field is down to
McCain and the outsider, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee. The two are
likely to scrap politely a little longer with McCain able to rack up more of
the aura of a winner and Huckabee assuming the mantle of the leader of his
party's conservative wing.
In the meantime, Republican operatives will already be laying the groundwork
for McCain's November election campaign, raising money, preparing field
offices, polling and getting their political machine in place. So by the time
whichever battered, tired Democrat campaign emerges as the victor from the
Obama and Clinton fight, they will immediately be plunged into the real
fight: for the White House itself. McCain and the entire Republican attack
machine will have been waiting for them for months.
Countdown to Denver
12 February
'Potomac Primary', when Virginia, Maryland and Washington DC vote. So called
because the Potomac River runs through the region of all three contests.
4 March
'Mini Super Tuesday', when Texas and Ohio vote, along with Rhode Island and
Vermont. This is the second biggest day of voting, with 444 delegates up for
grabs.
2 April
Pennsylvania votes, the last major state to hit the polls (188 delegates).
6 May
The last day of big delegate hauls as North Carolina and Indiana vote (218
delegates).
7 June
The last contest, Puerto Rico, is worth 63 delegates.
25 August
The Democratic convention begins in Denver, Colorado. The race may be settled
by then in deals with superdelegates. If not, it will go to a floor vote.
--
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※ 编辑: swallow73 来自: 220.141.99.72 (02/10 15:39)