我猜上篇新闻大概是从这篇纽约时报的报导编译过来的。不过有兴趣的话， 原文还是值得一读，因为国内编译新闻似乎常常自动筛掉相当部份的细节， 而这些细节很不幸的有时候也颇为重要。 随口提两点上篇编译新闻忽略掉，我个人认为也值得一提的部份。首先是 截至目前为止，McCain募了8000万美元，手头上目前有1100万的现金。 Obama募了2亿四千万，即使经过初选的大量消耗，银行内仍然有超过 McCain四倍以上的现金。虽然党部方面，共和党募到的3100万(这笔钱可以 直接拿来支援McCain)远比民主党的600万来的多；不过综合来说，Obama 仍然享有竞选经费上的优势。 另外，Obama竞选团队虽然利用初选过程建立强大的全国竞选网路，但由於 民主党党部为了惩罚提前举行初选的Flordia跟Michigan，禁止候选人在该 处竞选；在初选正式结束前，Obama团队仍然受到这项规定的限制，因此这 两州也成了目前Obama团队在组织上最弱的地方。 == 回应一点推ncyc大之前在14154的推文 推 ncyc:这好像有点太嚣张了... n大应该是在批评Obama还没正式取得提名，就说要跟McCain举办联合竞选活动吧。 不过从纽时这篇报导看来，这个提议是McCain阵营首先倡议的，McCain阵营 也早已锁定Obama为大选时的对手，那这样看来就不是Obama态度嚣张了。 == 随着这篇新闻，纽约时报有一张两方阵营认定会成为大选时关键战场的州的图表。 这张图表我认为整理的不错，想直接看原图的板友可以看这里: http://tinyurl.com/597cgn 不过为了照顾因为种种原因，偏好BBS介面的板友，我整理如下: 铁票州 民主党:172票(Electoral Votes) 共和党:200票 战场州 04年由Kerry胜出: 80票 04年由Bush胜出 : 86票 另外，由於在Pennsylvania跟Ohio取得令人印象深刻的大胜， Clinton女士及其支持者卖力的推销能得到大选时关键州的 选举人票是Clinton女士最大的优势之一。 或许我们可以藉由这个表格来检视这个论点客不客观。 去掉还未举行初选的Oregon(7票)，Florida(27票)跟Michigan(17票) 後； Clinton女士在初选赢得了 Ohio (20票), Pennsylvania (21票), New Hampshire (4票) Nevada (5票), New Mexico (5)票) 总共是55票 Obama赢得了 Washington (11票), Minnesota (10票), Wisconsin (10票), Virginia (13票), Colorado (9票), Iowa (7票) 总共是 60票 Obama占优势的州总共有60票，比Clinton女士的55票还多。 如果要争论Florida若能按时程举行初选，Clinton女士将顺利胜出 别忘了根据稍後的民调，Obama也在Michigan略占优势，在2/17号 後所做的三次对比式民调，Obama vs McCain也都比Clinton vs McCain的组 合略占上风(http://usaelectionpolls.com/2008/general-election/michigan.html) ；再加上5/20才举行初选，但Obama占了相当程度优势的Oregon； 加起来Clinton女士仍以 82票(55+Florida 27)落後於Obama的84票 (60+ Michigan 17+ Oregon 7)。 从这样计算看来，Clinton女士虽然更有机会拿下Florida、Pennsylvania、 Ohio三个非常high profile的swing state(近来的对比民调也证实了 这一点)；然而在选举人票的计算上却并未占有优势。Obama胜出的 swing state的确都不是那麽的大，但是总合加起来所掌握的选举人票还是比较多。 如果要"拿Obama赢的多是大选时毫无机会的红州，Clinton赢的多是大选时 重要的大州"这点来争论Clinton比Obama更适合代表民 主党参选，得先考虑一下上面那个计算。 Washington (Kerry,04) 11票 民主党 共和党 2004 7% 2000 6% 1996 12% 1992 11% 1988 2% 1984 13% 1980 12% Oregon (Kerry, 04) 7票 民主党 共和党 2004 4% 2000 0% 1996 8% 1992 10% 1988 5% 1984 12% 1980 10% Navada (Bush, 04) 5票 民主党 共和党 2004 3% 2000 4% 1996 1% 1992 3% 1988 21% 1984 34% 1980 36% Colorado (Bush, 04) 9票 民主党 共和党 2004 5% 2000 8% 1996 1% 1992 4% 1988 8% 1984 28% 1980 24% New Mexico (Bush, 04) 5票 民主党 共和党 2004 1% 2000 0% 1996 7% 1992 9% 1988 5% 1984 21% 1980 18% Minnesota (Kerry, 04) 10票 民主党 共和党 2004 4% 2000 2% 1996 16% 1992 12% 1988 7% 1984 0% 1980 4% Iowa (Bush, 04) 7票 民主党 共和党 2004 1% 2000 0% 1996 10% 1992 8% 1988 10% 1984 7% 1980 13% Wisconsin (Kerry, 04) 10票 民主党 共和党 2004 0% 2000 0% 1996 10% 1992 4% 1988 4% 1984 9% 1980 5% Michigan (Kerry, 04) 17票 民主党 共和党 2004 3% 2000 5% 1996 13% 1992 7% 1988 8% 1984 19% 1980 7% Ohio (Bush, 04) 20票 民主党 共和党 2004 2% 2000 4% 1996 3% 1992 2% 1988 11% 1984 19% 1980 11% Pennsylvania (Kerry, 04) 21票 民主党 共和党 2004 2% 2000 4% 1996 9% 1992 9% 1988 2% 1984 7% 1980 7% New Hapshire (Kerry, 04) 4票 民主党 共和党 2004 1% 2000 1% 1996 10% 1992 1% 1988 26% 1984 38% 1980 29% Virginia (Bush,04) 13票 民主党 共和党 2004 8% 2000 8% 1996 2% 1992 4% 1988 21% 1984 25% 1980 13% Florida (Bush,04) 27票 民主党 共和党 2004 5% 2000 0% 1996 6% 1992 2% 1988 22% 1984 31% 1980 17% Already, Obama and McCain Map Fall Strategies http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/11/us/politics/11strategy.html?th&emc=th Published: May 11, 2008 Senators John McCain and Barack Obama are already drawing up strategies for taking each other on in the general election, focusing on the same groups — including independent voters and Latinos — and about a dozen states where they think the contest is likely to be decided this fall, campaign aides said. In a sign of what could be an extremely unusual fall campaign, the two sides said Saturday that they would be open to holding joint forums or unmoderated debates across the country in front of voters through the summer. Mr. Obama, campaigning in Oregon, said that the proposal, floated by Mr. McCain’s advisers, was “a great idea.” Even before Mr. Obama fully wraps up the Democratic presidential nomination, he and Mr. McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, are starting to assemble teams in the key battlegrounds, develop negative advertising and engage each other in earnest on the issues and a combustible mix of other topics, including age and patriotism. Mr. McCain, of Arizona, will spend the next week delivering a series of speeches on global warming, evidence of his intention to battle Mr. Obama for independent voters, a group the two men have laid claim to. Those voters tend to recoil from hard-edged partisan politics, and presumably would be receptive to the kind of bipartisan forum that Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama seemed open to on Saturday. Clearly concerned that questions about such things as his association with his former pastor had damaged his standing with independents, Mr. Obama, of Illinois, is likely to embark on a summertime tour intended to highlight the life story that was once central to his appeal. Preliminary plans include a stop in Hawaii, his birthplace, and a major address there at Punchbowl Cemetery, where his maternal grandfather, who fought in World War II, is buried. Mr. Obama’s campaign is firing up voter-registration efforts and sending troops to Ohio and Pennsylvania, states that he lost in the primaries but that his aides said he must win to capture the White House. Mr. McCain’s advisers said they had tracked Mr. Obama’s struggles with blue-collar voters there and would open campaign headquarters in both states in early June. Beyond that, aides to the two men said Latino voters would be central to victory in a swath of Western states now viewed as prime battlefields, including Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. These decisions by Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama to look ahead to the fall reflect their conclusion that it is only a matter of time before Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York steps away from the fight for the Democratic nomination. Mr. McCain is looking first to states where President Bush narrowly lost in 2004 and where Mr. Obama lost primaries, starting with New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Mr. Obama is looking to states where he won caucuses and primaries — including some, like Virginia, that have been solidly Republican in recent presidential elections — as well as others where he has organizations in place. And the two sides have produced television advertisements that will be rolled out as soon as the Democratic contest is officially resolved. These advertisements are directed less at promoting themselves than at undercutting their opponents. The Republican National Committee is planning a $19.5 million advertising campaign to portray Mr. Obama, 46, as out of touch with the country and too inexperienced to be commander in chief, seeking to put him on the defensive before he can use his financial advantage against Mr. McCain, 71, party officials said. “In 1984, Ronald Reagan said, ‘I’m not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent’s youth and inexperience,’ ” said Frank Donatelli, the deputy chairman of the Republican National Committee. “Well, we are going to exploit Obama’s youth and inexperience.” On the Democratic side, Mr. Obama’s aides this week put finishing touches on advertisements intended to tether Mr. McCain to Mr. Bush and chip away at his image as a maverick, an identity that the aides said they found remained strong with voters. “By November, every voter will know that McCain is offering a third Bush term,” said Mr. Obama’s campaign manager, David Plouffe. Advisers to Mr. Obama said their research suggested that Mr. McCain, notwithstanding his high profile in American politics for more than a decade, was not well known to many voters. In particular, Mr. Obama’s aides said they would highlight Mr. McCain’s opposition to abortion rights to try to stem the flow of disaffected women who backed Mrs. Clinton in the primaries and whom Mr. McCain’s aides said they would aggressively court. The strategies reflect a lesson from the 2004 presidential campaign, when top aides to Mr. Bush, some of whom are working for Mr. McCain today, began a well-financed television campaign to define and undercut Senator John Kerry, Democrat of Massachusetts, the moment he became his party’s nominee. Mr. Obama’s advisers said they were mindful that he had not yet won the nomination and that six contests remained. Still, they said it was crucial to begin engaging Mr. McCain as soon possible. Independent voters have been critical in presidential elections as the country has become polarized along party lines. What makes this election different is the extent to which Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain have turned to independent voters for support throughout their careers. Historically, independent voters have responded to specific issues and concerns, in particular an emphasis on government reform and an aversion to overly bitter partisan wrangling. Accordingly, Mr. McCain’s advisers said they would present him as a senator who frequently stepped across the aisle, while portraying Mr. Obama as a down-the-line Democratic voter who is ideologically out of touch with much of the country. “We believe America is still a slightly right-of-center country, and that is what McCain is,” said Charlie Black, a senior adviser to Mr. McCain. “If you look at Obama’s base and his record, he is a pretty conventional liberal. ” Mr. Obama’s advisers, meanwhile, intend to present Mr. McCain as a product of Washington who moved closer to the Bush administration to win the Republican nomination. The two men also have sought to build their candidacies around images of reform, unconstrained by traditional political molds. The rivals are openly discussing staging forums across the country to speak directly to voters, an idea that is by any measure unconventional for a general election campaign. Asked about the idea on Saturday, Mr. Obama told reporters in Oregon, “If I have the opportunity to debate substantive issues before the voters with John McCain, that’s something that I’m going to welcome.” Hispanic voters could find themselves drawing more attention from presidential candidates than ever before. Their votes could prove critical in determining whether Democrats capture states like Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico and whether Republicans have any chance of being competitive in California. Mr. McCain’s identification with legislation that would have permitted some illegal immigrants to attain citizenship, a position he moved away from in the primaries but never renounced, gives him an opportunity to compete for those voters, who except for Cubans in Florida appear to have largely settled into the Democratic camp in recent years. Mr. Obama also supported measures that would have allowed immigrants to attain citizenship but struggled to win over Hispanic voters in his primary fight, signaling a potential problem for him in the fall campaign. Mr. Obama’ s aides said the endorsement by Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico, one of the nation’s most prominent Hispanic leaders, could prove more critical in the general election than in the primary. Both sides say the states clearly in play now include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin. Republicans said they hoped to put New Jersey and possibly California into play; Democrats said African-Americans could make Mr. Obama competitive in Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina. Mr. Obama’s advisers said they had a strong chance of taking Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia away from the Republican column. Mr. Obama has a clear financial advantage. By March 31, Mr. McCain had raised about $80 million and reported about $11 million in cash on hand. Mr. Obama had raised three times as much — about $240 million — and had more than four times as much in the bank. But the Republican National Committee, which is permitted to spend money on Mr. McCain’s behalf, has raised $31 million, compared with just $6 million by the Democratic National Committee. And Republican officials said they were not concerned about being outspent between now and the conventions. Mr. Obama’s advisers said that as a result of the five-month series of primaries and caucuses, he had a nearly national campaign apparatus in place and had identified and registered thousands of new voters. That said, they acknowledged that they were at a disadvantage in two important states — Florida and Michigan — because those states had early primaries in defiance of the Democratic National Committee, and the candidates agreed not to campaign there. “Organizationally, we have now built very powerful organizations in every state but Michigan and Florida,” Mr. Plouffe said. “That is one huge silver lining to how long this nomination fight has gone on.” Republicans will seek to portray Mr. Obama as out of touch with many voters on issues like abortion and gay rights. Some of Mr. McCain’s advisers said they also thought that Mr. Obama had displayed a number of vulnerabilities as a candidate that they would seek to exploit: they argued that he was prone to becoming irritated when tired or pressed on tough questions, that he had trouble connecting with voters in smaller settings and that he had run a campaign light on substance. In the eyes of the Obama campaign, Mr. McCain’s chief weaknesses include continuing to embrace the Iraq war, his support for extending the administration’s tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans (he once opposed the idea) and his suggestion that the economy had made “great progress” in the last eight years. Mr. Obama has said he has no intention of making age — Mr. McCain is 25 years older — an overt issue in the general election campaign. Yet in recent weeks, the Obama campaign has made a point of showing their candidate in settings, on the basketball court, as well as surrounded by his young family, that could be seen as telegraphing the message without explicitly raising the issue. -- 让原本痛苦、僵化的作文课，变成创意纷飞、想像奔驰、文思泉涌的学习乐园 ---培力作文补习班 http://www.empower.idv.tw/ --

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