作者swallow73 (吃素，减碳，救地球)
看板IA
标题Re: [新闻] 希拉蕊要求初选计入佛州与密州党代表票
时间Fri May 23 08:55:33 2008
立场方面的问题暂时就不做讨论了，这里只讨论科学数据。
部落格Democratic Convention Watch开玩笑说目前剩下来最重
要的初选投票是5/31号的DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee决定
Florida跟Michigan两州党代表分配方式的会议。这两州牵涉到
的党代表有三百多席，剩下来几州初选分配到的党代表只有83
席。
根据Democratic Convention Watch目前有5种比较可能的分配方式:
1.Do not seat Florida or Michigan. Current Official DNC rules
2.Seat FL 1/2 vote, MI 69-59 split and supers full vote.
3.Seat FL/MI all half votes, pledged and supers
4.FL/MI, pledged half vote, supers full vote
5.Seat FL & MI based on the elections that have taken place. This scenario is
in the left sidebar.
不过，RBC有权利投票决定任何他们觉得合理的分配方法，选项并不仅
限於以上五种。
以下资料取自
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
FL & MI SCENARIOS
Scenario 1: Do not seat Florida or Michigan. Current Official DNC rules
Delegates Available: 4049.0 Nomination: 2025.0 PD majority: 1627.0
Obama Clinton Edwards Other Total
Pledged Delegates(GP) 1657.5 1500.5 9 86 3253
Needed for PD majority Clinched!
Superdelegates (DCW) 306.5 279.5 210 796
Total Delegates 1964.0 1780.0 9 296 4049
Delegates Lead 184.0
Needed to win Nomination 61.0 245.0 296
Scenario 2: FL 1/2 vote, MI 69-59 split and Super full vote.
Delegates Available: 4324.5 Nomination: 2162.5 PD majority: 1737.0
Obama Clinton Edwards Others Total
Pledged Delegates(GP) 1657.5 1500.5 9 3253
MI Pledged Delegates 59 69 128
FL Pledged Delegates 34.5 52.5 5.5 92.5
Total Pledged Delegates 1751.0 1622.0 14.5 0 3473.5
Needed for PD majority Clinched!
Superdelegates (DCW) 306.5 279.5 210 796
FL & MI Superdelegates 10 15 30 55
Total Delegates 2067.5 1916.5 14.5 326 4324.5
Delegates Lead 151.0 -- -- -- -- -- --
Delegates needed to win Nomination 95.0 246.0 -- -- -- Left 326
Scenario 3: FL/MI all half votes, pledged and supers
Delegates Available: 4233.0 Nomination: 2117.0 PD majority: 1705.0
Obama Clinton Edwards Others Total
Pledged Delegates(GP) 1657.5 1500.5 9 86 3253
MI Pledged Delegates 0.0 36.5 27.5 64
FL Pledged Delegates 34.5 52.5 5.5 92.5
Total Pledged Delegates 1692.0 1589.5 14.5 113.5 3409.5
Needed for PD majority 13.0 115.5
Superdelegates (DCW) 306.5 279.5 210 796
FL & MI Superdelegates 5 7.5 15 27.5
Total Delegates 2003.5 1876.5 14.5 252.5 4233.0
Delegates Lead 127.0
Delegates needed to
win Nomination 113.5 240.5 Left 338.5
Scenario 4: FL/MI, pledged half vote, supers full vote
Delegates Available: 4260.5 Nomination: 2130.5 PD majority: 1705.0
Obama Clinton Edwards Others Total
Pledged Delegates(GP) 1657.5 1500.5 9 86 3253
MI Pledged Delegates 0.0 36.5 27.5 64
FL Pledged Delegates 34.5 52.5 5.5 92.5
Total Pledged Delegates 1692.0 1589.5 14.5 27.5 3409.5
Needed for PD majority 13.0 115.5
Superdelegates (DCW) 306.5 279.5 210 796
FL & MI Superdelegates 10 15 30 55
Total Delegates 2008.5 1884.0 14.5 353.5 4260.5
Delegates Lead 124.5
Delegates needed
to win Nomination 122.0 246.5 Left 353.5
Scenario 5: Seat FL & MI based on the elections that have taken place.
(Obama does not get MI 55 uncommitted).
Delegates Available: 4417.0 Nomination: 2209.0 PD majority: 1783.5
Obama Clinton Edwards Others Total
Pledged Delegates(GP) 1726.5 1678.5 20 143 3566
Needed for PD majority 57.0 105.0
Superdelegates (DCW) 316.5 294.5 240 851
Total Delegates 2043.0 1973.0 20 381 4417
Delegates Lead 70.0
Delegates needed to
win Nomination 166.0 236.0 Left 381
Last Updated: 05/22/2008 2:00 PM(EST)
对Clinton阵营来说最有利的当然是Scenario 5，也就是RBC不对擅自提前
举行初选的两州做出任何处罚；并且在其他候选人都遵照党中央的要求将名
字从Michigan初选选票上撤掉时，Clinton女士比较聪明没撤的情况下，RBC
也认可了Clniton阵营极有智慧的做法，奖赏了Clinton女士大幅的席次优势。
(虽然通过的可能性根据DCW，并不高)
在该案中，Clinton要赢得提名必须在387席剩余的党代表中
赢得236席(61.9%)。波多大黎各(55席)好一点的话，Clinton可以赢得6:4
的胜利(估且算是拿下33席)，北达科卡和蒙大拿恐怕会败阵，不过还是算
她能拿到两州31席中的15席好了。然後照此方案，Obama在Michigan是一票
未得，不过该州55席uncommitted党代表，根据中立的Democratic Convention Watch:
"We understand he will get many, most, or even all of these Uncommitted
delegate,"算Clinton女士手腕不错，可以拿20席。接下来Clinton女士要赢得提名得有
剩余7成超级党代表的支持才行。不过，即使是以大幅度的差距赢得德州、宾州、西维吉尼
亚州、肯塔基州，气势看起来还不错的那段期间Clinton女士争取到的超级党代表仍远
远落後对手；要如何说服剩下7成超级党代表支持她会是一项艰辛的工作。
Clinton女士当然有权继续选下去；只是就辛苦程度方面，即使热情的支持者看来
两阵营所差的数字为不足道，然而就现实游戏规则而言，要弭平这数字上看似略微的差
异，难度恐怕是会比想像中的还要大。继续打下去当然看起来很热血；不过现实政治利
害上，两阵营双方关系弄得和气一点，Cliton女士还是可望成为参议院多数党领袖；
甚至若民主党於今年败选，成为2012年参选人的呼声也会很高。虽然Obama理所当然
的必须有党内其他人士都不管怎麽搞，都能有团结全党能力的魔法才能；不过如何
避免一些不理性的民主党人士(大概是那些皮肤黑黑的为主吧)将失败的责任算到
自己头上，造成两头落空；还算年轻，仍然有美好的政治前途需要照顾的Clinton
女士得先算好停损点，毕竟能够为国奉献的职位并不只有总统而已。
--
Your Honor, years ago I recognized my kinship with all living beings, and I
made up my mind that I was not one bit better than the meanest on earth. I
said then, and I say now, that while there is a lower class, I am in it, and
while there is a criminal element I am of it, and while there is a soul in
prison, I am not free. by Eugene Victor Debs, five-time Socialist Party of
America candidate for President of the United States.
--
※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 122.127.64.66
1F：推 march20:为什麽他们不一天全部的州选完就好, 搞得旷日废时的 @@ 05/23 09:19
※ 编辑: swallow73 来自: 122.127.64.66 (05/23 09:58)
※ 编辑: swallow73 来自: 122.127.64.66 (05/23 10:07)
2F：推 NPLNT:感觉不管采取哪一种方案对Clinton来说要赢还是很拼 05/23 10:54
3F：推 march20:只能寄望超级党代表能觉得 HC 比 BO 有赢面吧 05/23 10:58
4F：→ march20:(怎麽觉得马侃正开心地在在科科笑 XD) 05/23 10:59
5F：推 zizek:McCain真的是个幸运儿阿XD 05/23 11:27
6F：推 RIFF:希望不要造成 惩罚遵守规定的人 的结果 --密州部分 05/23 12:08
7F：推 RIFF:如果今天落後的是BO 我很怀疑以BO的实力与资源 能否策动党内 05/23 17:00
8F：→ RIFF:重新记票的声浪 今天支持BO的党内人士 大多都是看选民风向 05/23 17:00
9F：→ RIFF:後来才表态支持BO 如果BO没有显示超越HC的群众基础 党内大老 05/23 17:01
10F：→ RIFF:根本不会买BO的帐吧 HC无论经历实力资源都胜出BO太多了 05/23 17:02
11F：→ RIFF:HC输了一场原本不该输的选举 05/23 17:02
12F：→ RIFF:并且 很可能HC并不仅只是因为几个策略因素输掉 而是其他原因 05/23 17:05
13F：→ swallow73:R大说的没错,其实这批超级党代表相当多都受过柯林顿夫 05/23 18:23
14F：→ swallow73:妇的提携以及金钱支援.两阵营目前在超级党代表支持度上 05/23 18:25
15F：→ swallow73:的差距,恐怕不是一个他们喜欢欧巴马就说的通的. 05/23 18:25
16F：→ ncyc:其实民主党超级党代表讨厌柯林顿夫妇的也不少... 05/23 18:49
17F：推 NPLNT:像DNC的主席是不是好像在很多议题立场都跟Clinton不相同? 05/23 19:58
※ 编辑: swallow73 来自: 122.127.64.66 (05/23 22:17)