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这篇共和党选举专家预测McCain在普选票有可能小赢或小输,但在 选举人票计算上压胜的分析看来是有一定程度的说服力。 不过我认为共和党也没有绝对乐观的理由。 首先是虽然2/5号当天,McCain即笃定拿下提名,民主党仍陷入缠斗状态 至今,不过McCain似乎并没能因此拉开在民调上的领先差距。 2/10号Obama vs McCain的RCP民调平均是47%:43.7%;目前是47%:44%。虽然在 这几个月中的几个时间点有赶上并超前,不过现在看来等於是又回到原 点。情势在民主党提名抵定後会有何转变是值得观察的。 当然共和党策士说的是选举人票争夺上的优势,不过就几个常被提到的 swing state各别民调来看,对民主党而言,Michigan的确是比较脆弱, 虽然目前RCP平均仍由Obama略为领先,不过最新的民调McCain已领先 1%;另外Florida McCain守的很稳,平均有8.3%的领先,Pennsylvania 方面Obama的领先虽然比McCain在Florida略少,不过仍然相当稳定。 值得注意的是,McCain vs Obama的对战中McCain一向占上风的Ohio,最 新的SurveyUSA民调,McCain已呈39%:48%落後。Survey USA在该州的民 调McCain是由3/14的7%领先降到四月上半的2%,目前又落後了8%。如果 同样的趋势持续下去,Obama又夺回在Michigan的领先;McCain在选举 人票的竞争上应该还是很难独走。 标题:GOP strategists mull McCain 'blowout’ 新闻来源:http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10585.html (需有正确连结) It sounds crazy at first. Amid dire reports about the toxic political environment for Republican candidates and the challenges facing John McCain, many top GOP strategists believe he can defeat Barack Obama — and by a margin exceeding President Bush’s Electoral College victory in 2004. At first blush, McCain’s recent rough patch and the considerable financial disadvantage confronting him make such predictions seem absurd. Indeed, as Republicans experience their worst days since Watergate, those same GOP strategists are reticent to publicly tout the prospect of a sizable McCain victory for fear of looking foolish. But the contours of the electoral map, combined with McCain’s unique strengths and the nature of Obama’s possible vulnerabilities, have led to a cautious and muted optimism that McCain could actually surpass Bush’s 35-electoral-vote victory in 2004. Though they expect he would finish far closer to Obama in the popular vote, the thinking is that he could win by as many 50 electoral votes. By post-war election standards, that margin is unusually small. Yet it’s considerably larger than either Bush’s 2004 victory or his five-electoral-vote win in 2000. “A win by 40 or 50 electoral votes would be an astonishing upset, just a watershed event with all the issues that were stacked against him from the very beginning,” said David Woodard, a Republican pollster and Clemson University political science professor. “But it could happen. I know this seems like wishful thinking by Republicans. I’m thinking that Republicans could win by 40 electoral votes. But I dare not say it,” he added. “ Certainly what is possible could come to pass.” A top strategist with the Republican National Committee, who asked that his name be withheld to speak candidly, explained that by his own examination, “ we’re actually sitting pretty well in most states.” “There are a lot of scenarios that look good for McCain, and I almost would go so far to say that there are a lot more scenarios [than for Obama],” the strategist added. “I don’t think anybody over here wants to let themselves get too excited about it. It is an eternity between now and November. But McCain looks a lot stronger than our prospects as a party.” It is virtually impossible to find an established GOP strategist who believes McCain will win in a landslide. But in light of the circumstances, more than a few Republicans are pleasantly surprised to find that McCain is at all situated to defeat Obama. “The broader environment clearly favors the Democrat,” said Whit Ayers, another veteran GOP pollster. But Ayers argued that “a state-by-state analysis actually makes McCain a narrow favorite to win the Electoral College majority.” “That would certainly run against the grain of history, if he pulled that off,” Ayers added. “But it’s also clearly plausible and a manageable outcome partly because of John McCain’s strength among independents and partly because of Obama’s weakness in culture, ideology and association.” Some Republican strategists can envision a scenario in which Obama wins the popular vote but loses in the Electoral College — he might galvanize Southern black turnout, for example, but still fail to switch a state in the region. Among the 10 strategists interviewed by Politico for this story, there was near-uniform belief that had any other Republican been nominated, the party’ s prospects in November would be nil. “No disrespect to the other candidates,” said GOP pollster Glen Bolger, “ but if anyone else had been nominated we’d be toast.” -- ■所有荷兰人如果每周一天不吃肉,就可达到荷兰政府希望家家户户一年所减少的二氧化 碳排放量目标。 ■南美洲约有四亿公顷的黄豆作物是种给牛吃的;如果是提供给人类食用,则只需两千五 百万公顷就可以满足全世界所需。 「不吃肉、骑脚踏车、少消费,就可协助遏止全球暖化。」 by Dr. Rajendra Pachauri --



※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 122.127.64.66
1F:推 ncyc:目前状况下,个人是不觉得任何竞争者能够在选举人票上面独走 05/25 12:57
2F:推 hawardhsz:看一些新闻台的评论 说万一BO获得提名 他们要重新介绍BO 05/25 13:08
3F:→ hawardhsz:给选民认识 以争取蓝领劳工阶级支持...哈 太可笑了 最好 05/25 13:09
4F:→ hawardhsz:有这麽多美国时间可以去重新开始 之前负面的新闻EX:牧师 05/25 13:09
5F:→ hawardhsz:BO太太白目发言 不戴美国国旗胸章 Elite发言..... 05/25 13:10
6F:→ hawardhsz:当之前选民是白痴就对了 现在一笔勾销 重新来 要他们抛 05/25 13:11
7F:→ hawardhsz:弃成见 重新认识BO 然後11月去投票给他 哈 天真到可怕!! 05/25 13:12
8F:→ hawardhsz:BO现在的领先还不都是靠2~3月 负面新闻报出来前 跟媒体 05/25 13:15
9F:→ hawardhsz:联合一起骗出来的 可怜的HC包袱太多又不讨媒体欢心 唉~ 05/25 13:16







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