http://www.cw.com.tw/article/index.jsp?id=34976 中东避粮荒，发动「外包」抢粮！ 作者：经济学人 　出处：Web Only 2008/06 全球粮食短缺，迫使中东地区各国政府竭尽脑汁，以寻求解决之道。 许多国家一开始采用扩大补贴和提高工资等传统方法， 但很快就发现， 他们必须跳脱侧重於保护消费者权益的短期救济措施， 改用拟订长期策略的方式，才能稳定物价及确保供应量。 受限於缺乏合适投资，中东和北非国家的农业发展不但规模小，效率也不佳。 过去几项大型工程计划，如利比亚的人造河流工程，最後皆宣告失败。 这使得该区粮食仍主要仰赖进口。 因此，这些国家正积极对外寻求稳定的粮食供应来源。 5月中旬，沙乌地阿拉伯政府宣布，将投资於巴西、乌克兰、泰国和印度等国的农业生产； 阿拉伯联合大公国已与巴基斯坦领袖们展开长期农业投资会谈； 利比亚则签署了协议，将开发位於乌克兰的大片农地。 虽然这些措施能为地区的粮食供应链带来更大经济效益，但也伴随相当风险。 一旦粮食生产国的政局不稳，海外投资者容易沦为生产国人民纾发怨气的对象。 而投资者也必须确保生产国市场的供应充足之後，才能将产品运送回国。 此外，中国也早已成为波斯湾国家在海外农地并购活动上的竞争对手。 越来越多的国家相信，粮食外包政策可能使国际贸易制度变得更为复杂。 不过，面对国内可能的动荡不安，中东和北非国家仍将坚持下去， 以确保全国人民都能以合理价格享有足够粮食。 http://english.cw.com.tw/article.do?action=show&id=10213 Middle East economy: Food outsourcing By The Economist Intelligence Unit From The Economist Published:June 20, 2008 Global food shortages, which have resulted in soaring food prices and riots in some Middle Eastern states have forced regional governments to think laterally for a solution. Starved of proper investment, agriculture throughout the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has developed little and remains generally small-scale and inefficient. Attempts at large projects have more often than not resulted in a huge waste of resources. Libya’s Great Man-made River project, designed to irrigate huge swathes of arable land to enable the country to become self-sufficient in food, has proved a monumental white elephant, while Saudi Arabia, after having poured billions into the cultivation of wheat has finally given up on the idea, realising that it was far too expensive and, more importantly, used up far too much water, for cultivation to continue. Consequently, the region remains dependent on imported food. And, as a corollary, it has been affected more than most by inflated global commodity prices. This has been exacerbated by increasing regional demand within the Gulf in particular, on the back of a rapidly rising immigrant population. The six member states of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) are estimated to have spent US$10bn on the importation of foodstuffs in 2007, a figure that is projected to rise by up to 40% in 2008. Since 2000, MENA's food import bill has surged by over 150%. Land grab Consequently, governments around MENA are now looking to secure their own sources of food supply. In mid-May, the Saudi government announced that it would co-ordinate with local private-sector companies and invest in strategic agricultural interests in key producer countries such as Brazil, Ukraine, Thailand and India, guaranteeing for itself supplies of cereals, meat and vegetables. It is already in advanced negotiations with Thai investors and a deal on rice farms in Thailand is likely before the end of the year. Similarly, the United Arab Emirates is also considering purchasing large-scale farms in Pakistan, in concert with Abraaj Capital, a private equity company. While the government has been in extensive discussions with the Pakistani leadership over a framework for long-term agricultural investment, Abraaj has been buying up tracts of land throughout Pakistan, having acquired, in league with the government and other private funds, up to 800,000 acres in the past year. The emirate of Abu Dhabi has purchased over 70,000 acres of arable land in Sudan, while Libya has signed deals to develop large tracts of agricultural holdings in Ukraine. These measures will undoubtedly inject greater economic efficiency into the region's food-supply chain. But there are inherent risks associated with such a strategy. Should political tensions arise within producer states, overseas owners of domestic production assets are likely to be an early target of domestic resentment. Nor will MENA states be able to protect their own outsourced farming projects as well as they may be able to protect domestic agricultural production. Furthermore, national investors will have to ensure that the producer states' markets are well supplied before shipping produce back home. In addition, Gulf states are already in competition for prime agricultural land with China. Under its "go outward" strategy, China has been leasing overseas farmland since 1996, but has stepped up its acquisitive activities in recent years as global food prices have started to rise. Doha death knell These policies have inevitably raised concerns over market distortion, most notably from the US and the EU. While these two actors have little grounds for complaint, on account of their own agricultural subsidy programmes, there is a growing belief that such outsourcing policies may further complicate the international trade regime. In particular, it may ultimately signal the death of the Doha Development Round, which was predicated on the opening of agricultural markets. But MENA countries, and in particular, Gulf states, will not be overly perturbed by this. Faced with potential unrest, they will persist in pursuing policies which will ensure sufficient bread at affordable prices for all their citizens. --

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