http://tinyurl.com/nuygksf 18 games into the season, what trends we can see Eighteen games in, sample size still small, but worth to take a look already. 18场比赛, 数据还不是很足够, 但可以拿来检视一下了 Again, all numbers were coming from NBA.com. I pulled the game log numbers, and plot individual player numbers vs. game date, and trying to look for any meaningful trend or split. I did found something worth to talk about. BTW, I only look into rotation players, and sorry, I did not include PJ. 数据全来自NBA, 我只看轮值球员, PJ不在里面抱歉 1. Play time. 上场时间 In this graph, player's play time was graphed against game date, red dot indicate winning games and blue ones were games we lost. I connected dots with lines to have an indication of game sequence. I could see the following: 红点就是赢球, 蓝点是输球, 把这些连起来就有一些顺序 Big AI and Spencer Hawes get the most consistent PT with minimum variation. Big Al 跟 Hawes 的上场时间很稳定没有啥改变 Other than the game AI got hurt thus played single digit min, he played steady min. And Hawes almost fall out of rotation, but after AI got injured, he went back to his 17 min routine. Big Al 有一场受伤所以上场时间不多外都很稳定, Hawes 原本要调出轮值外 Big Al 受伤就重新站回每场17分钟 Look at Kaminsky's PT one can easily tell when he cracked into the rotation, and once he is in, he stays there. 看司机的时间你就可以观察到最近他上场越来越多, 而且时间很稳定 After Lamb got his contract extension, his PT never dropped under 20 min. 羊一拿到合约後他的时间没有低於20min Kemba/Marvin/Batum were our highest min player, and Kemba's minutes were trending upwards. 砍八/Marvin/巴图是上场时间最久的球员, 砍八有上去的趋势 Cody and Lin were the players had the biggest PT swing without clear trend or correlation to something that I'm aware of. Literally they had back to back games with 15 min play time swing up or down. Looks like those two players do not have steady role on this team yet, thus got adjusted back and forth frequently, unfortunately. Cody 跟林的时间是很剧烈晃动, 没有一个明显的趋势, 基本上就是15分钟然後一下飙高 一下又往下. 看来这两个球员目前在队伍上还没有一个稳定的定位, 所以才会 一直调整上场时间, 很遗憾 No player's PT change has clear correlation to team win or loose, maybe Lamb a little bit, when Lamb play more than 25 min/game, we were 6-1. However, he was not playing much in the first three loosing games could screw the split a little bit. 没有一个球员的上场时间跟胜负非常有关, 可能羊有吧 只要他打超过25分钟, 战绩是6-1. 但因为赛季最初三场他没有打 这样有可能会影响统计 2. Field Goal Attempt: I think FGA is a rough indication of scorer priority. 我认为FGA可以大概推估出球员出手的优先值 AI/Kemba/Batum were the top three priorities on this team to score. Followed by the Jeremys. Al/Kemba/Batum 三大优先, 再来就是两个Jeremy For games Kemba had more than 14 FGA, we were 2- 7, for games Kemba had less than 14 FGA, we were 8-1. I do think this split is significant. Interesting thing is, every game we loose except for the first 3, Kemba will dial back his FGA to under 14 只要Kemba 出手超过14次, 战绩2-7, 没超过战绩是8-1. 这是很明显的数据, 有趣的是(除了最初三场) 只要上一场输了 下一场Kema 就不会出手太多 Not sure whether it was coincidence or causation, we win all the games AI shoot more than 18 or Lin shoot 11 times or above. We loose all the games Hawes shoot more than 8. 不知道这是不是巧合还是还是真的有关系, 只要AL 出手超过18次或林出手超过11次 比赛就会赢, 只要Hawes 出手超过8次就会输 This one is fun, we were 6-0 when Lamb shoot exactly 10 times. Give it a little wiggle room, we were 8-1 when Lamb shoot 10 +/- 1 FGA. Lin's FGA had a sharp drop in recent games, correlates to his play time too. Not sure that's a trend or variation. 还有这个有趣的数据, 只要羊出手10次(不多不少) 战绩6-0 如果出手10 +/- 一次, 战绩8-1 林最近的出手数急速下降, 跟他上场时间吻合 不知道这是一个趋势还是只是暂时的 3. Field Goal Percentage: FG% is looked at to see how stable an player is playing at. 命中率可以看出球员的稳定度 In the graph, the solid line indicate the player's average FG% and the dotted line were the FG% average +/- SD. The range indicated the game to game variation. 我懒得翻这句XD For Zeller/Kaminsky/Hawes, since they don't shoot much, thus their FG% could have bigger swing, that's normal. Cody/司机/Hawes, 因为出手数不多, 命中率变化很大, 正常 AI had bigger variation than I anticipated, since he shoots closer to the rim, thus I anticipate he had higher and more steady FG%, He had quite some games shooting at lower than 50%. AL 的命中率变化比我想像中的大, 因为他靠近篮框我认为他有一个稳定又高的命中率 但他有好多比赛命中率低於50% Lamb has apparent bigger variation but that's due to couple of his crazy efficient games with more than 70% FG%, so that's all good. When Lamb is shooting at 50% FG% or better, we had 8-2 record. The fact that he had 10 out of 17 games he played with higher than 50% FG% is pretty impressive. 羊的命中率变化很大, 因为他有几场超级疯狂的比赛(命中率超过七成) 当他的命中率超过50%, 战绩8-2. 这17场比赛中有10场命中率超过五成很引人注目 Lin wasn't shooting as good as his previous seasons, but somehow he was shooting with the smallest variation on the team. 林的命中率没有热身赛时来得好, 但他是最稳定的 Kemba is the opposite to Lin. He is shooting the best percentage in his career, but it could go as hot as 70% or as cold as 10%, or any place in between. However, with his current FG% and 3FG%, I will take it. Kemba 完全相反, 目前是生涯命中率最好, 但有时七成有时一成 (或者在这两个 极端值中间). 但是, 看他目前的命中率跟三分命中率, 我可以接受 4. Plus minus: +/- 值 Some people love to quote +/- for a single game, and some people just totally ignore it, but I do think when you put them together collectively, it could still mean something. 有些人喜欢看一场就做结论, 有些人完全不管 我认为看连续好几场是可以看出一点端倪 The clearest trend is Jeremy Lin. For all the games he got more than +5 in +/-, we win. For all the games he got less than +5 in +/-, we loose! 最明显的是林. 只要他+/-高於5, 我们就会赢 只要他低於5, 我们就输! Cody Zeller had equally clear split, just the split is at -6. When he had better than -6 in +/-, we win, worst than that, we loose. Cody 也是, 只是分界点是-6 只要他高於-6我们就会赢 In all the winning games but 1, Lamb had positive +/-, in all the loosing games but 1, Lamb had negative +/- 在所有赢的比赛里(除了一场) 羊的数值是正的 在所有输的比赛里(除了一场) 数值是负的 In all the winning games but 2, Hawes had positive +/-, and in all the loosing games but 2, Hawes had negative +/- 在所有赢的比赛里(除了2场) Hawes的数值是正的 在所有输的比赛里(除了2场) 数值是负的 So if you don't trust individual +/- number, look it collectively, don't you appreciate more about our BENCH FORCE ONE? 如果你不相信正负值, 就把所有比赛捆再一起看 觉得我们的板凳很烂吗? 再看清楚一点 I think this is the cleanest split I have seen in this 18 games data. --

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