NBA Draft Lottery Preview - SACRAMENTO Andrew Nicholson, Kings.com Team needs: If there ever was a year to miss the playoffs and end up with a lottery pick, this would be that year. This draft is rich with talent, whether a team picks first or 30th. The Kings have a 84.62 percent chance of drafting 10th in the draft. While a higher pick would be awesome, the 10th pick could aid the Kings’ needs tremendously. This draft and more specifically, the lottery, is stacked with height, which is something the Kings will probably hope to acquire on June 28. Seven out of the top 15 prospects, according to their vitals on ESPN.com, are 6-foot-10 or taller. The Kings ranked 30th in rebounding and 28nd in blocked shots in 2006-07. They would certainly love to get better in the paint. At the same time, the Kings field goal percentage ranked 21st in the league and their dime dropping ranked 22nd. If the Kings found themselves with a chance to pick a top rate playmaking point guard, they could very well go in that direction as well. 内容大致是说 假使可以损失一年的季後赛资格 换得乐透权(为了以後更长远的路) 那无疑就是这一季了 国王的选秀有 84.62% 会座落在第 10 顺位(不好意思 国王铜板掷输山猫和尼克...Orz) 但本季选秀长人资源丰富 据 ESPN 预测在前 15 顺位中有 7个是 6尺10寸以上的大个 ESPN Insider 1. Greg Oden 7-0 1.80% 2. Kevin Durant 6-9* 2.12% 3. Al Horford 6-10 ----% 4. Corey Brewer 6-9* X 5. Yi Jianlian 6-11* X 6. Julian Wright 6-8 X 7. Brandan Wright 6-9* X 8. Joakim Noah 6-11 X 9. Spencer Hawes 7-0 X 10. Roy Hibbert 7-2 84.62% 11. Mike Conley Jr. 6-1* 12. Jeff Green 6-9* 13. Al Thornton 6-7 14. Acie Law 6-3 (注：身高是引用 NBA.com的资料 但 *号部分和 ESPN 网站列举的有些微不同) 因此 只有有机会选到一个大个子 对於国王敬陪末座的"油漆区事业"一定大有帮助 (06-07 年篮板排名最後、火锅排名倒数第三....) 另外国王命中率和助攻都已经掉到後段班了(20名以後....) 所以 如果有机会捞到本次选秀首席控球後卫 国王应该也不会有所犹豫吧！！ (Mike Conley Jr. 就是你了！！ 第一年就和 Oden 进入总决赛 A/T 比 2.77 ！) If the Kings finish in the top three of the lottery… While top three is nice, it seems that having a top two selection is where every team hopes to land. The Kings chance of winning the lottery is 1.8 percent, while getting the second pick is slightly higher at 2.12 percent. Considering the Kings lost the lottery tiebreaker with New York and Charlotte earlier this year and have only won the lottery once (1989, Pervis Ellison) in Sacramento, the city would be electric if lady luck smiled upon the Kings. Both Greg Oden and Kevin Durant could make an instant impact on the Kings. Oden would help by blocking shots and causing havoc in the paint, while Durant could bring the athleticism and inside-outside combination that made the Kings so potent for years. It’s safe to say if the Kings land a top two pick, ARCO Arena would make any other NBA arena sound like a library in 2007-08. 这一段在说国王 某种程度还蛮缺乏运气的 国王上一次抽中状元签是 1989 年的事了 选了 Pervis Ellison , C , 6-10 生涯平均 9.5分 6.7篮板 1.5助攻 而在 1991 年则拿到探花(选了 Billy Owens) 自从 Geoff Petrie 上任以来(1995) 国王最好的选秀位置是第 7顺位 当年选了一个叫做 Jason Williams 的古怪家伙 :p 如果.. 国王真的有机会拿到前三..恩 或说前二顺位 不管是一柱擎天的 Oden 还是 能里能外的 Durant 明年的主场 ARCO Arena 准会让其他球场 彷若图书馆一样 鸦雀无声 (这是说又回到从前那种超高分贝人声鼎沸的模样吗 看今年勇士季後赛主场..有点怀念) Lottery luck: While the Kings have become known for retooling their rosters with trades and proven free agents (Chris Webber, Mike Bibby, Ron Artest), the solid play from the Kings youth in the last six games, coupled with Kevin Martin’s breakout season, show that the Kings should also be known for selecting quality players in the NBA Draft each year despite a typical mid to late pick in the first round. Barring a trade, the Kings now have a lottery pick for the first time since they drafted Jason “J-Will” Williams with the seventh pick in the 1998 Draft. In fact, in the past 15 years, the Kings have drafted in the single digits of the NBA Draft Lottery only four times (including the aforementioned J-Will). The other three picks were Walt Williams in 1992 and Bobby Hurley in 1993, both of whom were seventh overall selections. Brian Grant was selected with the eighth pick in 1994. 基於 Petrie 当上总管 基本上国王的顺位都没能太前面 尤其是老艾开始执教後(据说要去火箭！！) 选秀顺位更是一再往後倒退 所以 Petrie 的总管执行能力 一直被人 focus在交易球员的面向上 可是 看看今年的 Martin 和已离队的 Peja 事实上国王也成功的选出 并培养能帮助球队的球员 (当然也有养好送人的 Hedo 和 没养出来但现在打得哇哇叫的 G蛙 ^^a) 所以其实整个团队的选秀能力还不差 最後 稍微回顾历年选秀史 恩..我在这个板也曾 po 过类似的 有兴趣者请自行查阅 顺便附上 NBA.com整理的 mock draft NBA.com 1. Greg Oden 2. Kevin Durant 3. Brandan Wright 4. Al Horford 5. Joakim Noah 6. Yi Jianlian 7. Corey Brewer 8. Mike Conley Jr. 9. Roy Hibbert 10. Julian Wright 11. Jeff Green 12. Spencer Hawes 13. Acie Law 14. Al Thornton DraftExpress ESPN Insider Inside Hoops 1. Greg Oden 1. Greg Oden 1. Greg Oden 2. Kevin Durant 2. Kevin Durant 2. Kevin Durant 3. Brandan Wright 3. Al Horford 3. Brandan Wright 4. Al Horford 4. Corey Brewer 4. Al Horford 5. Roy Hibbert 5. Yi Jianlian 5. Joakim Noah 6. Joakim Noah 6. Julian Wright 6. Mike Conley Jr. 7. Corey Brewer 7. Brandan Wright 7. Roy Hibbert 8. Julian Wright 8. Joakim Noah 8. Jeff Green 9. Yi Jianlian 9. Spencer Hawes 9. Acie Law 10. Mike Conley Jr. 10. Roy Hibbert 10. Yi Jianlian 11. Spencer Hawes 11. Mike Conley Jr. 11. Corey Brewer 12. Acie Law 12. Jeff Green 12. Spencer Hawes 13. Al Thornton 13. Al Thornton 13. Julian Wright 14. Jeff Green 14. Acie Law 14. Al Thornton ProBasketballNews CollegeHoops.net RealGM 1. Greg Oden 1. Kevin Durant 1. Greg Oden 2. Kevin Durant 2. Greg Oden 2. Kevin Durant 3. Al Horford 3. Brandan Wright 3. Brandan Wright 4. Joakim Noah 4. Al Horford 4. Mike Conley Jr. 5. Brandan Wright 5. Julian Wright 5. Corey Brewer 6. Yi Jianlian 6. Yi Jianlian 6. Al Horford 7. Mike Conley Jr. 7. Joakim Noah 7. Jeff Green 8. Julian Wright 8. Jeff Green 8. Yi Jianlian 9. Corey Brewer 9. Roy Hibbert 9. Roy Hibbert 10. Jeff Green 10. Spencer Hawes 10. Joakim Noah 11. Roy Hibbert 11. Mike Conley Jr. 11. Spencer Hawes 12. Acie Law 12. Corey Brewer 12. Al Thornton 13. Spencer Hawes 13. Al Thornton 13. Thaddeus Young 14. Thaddeus Young 14. Rudy Fernandez 14. Acie Law 参考资料： http://www.nba.com/news/ties_broken_draft_070420.html (07年选秀详细 及其 规则) 抽中状元签的机率： 1.80% (18/1000) 抽中榜眼签的机率： 2.12% 彩球数 抽中状元 国王 事件 单一 剩下球数 榜眼率 发生率 结果率 1 250 750 0.0240 0.2500 0.0060 2 199 801 0.0225 0.1990 0.0045 3 156 844 0.0213 0.1560 0.0033 4 119 881 0.0204 0.1190 0.0024 5 88 912 0.0197 0.0880 0.0017 6 53 947 0.0190 0.0530 0.0010 7 53 947 0.0190 0.0530 0.0010 8 19 981 0.0183 0.0190 0.0003 9 19 981 0.0183 0.0190 0.0003 10 18 --- ------ ------ ------ 11 8 992 0.0181 0.0080 0.0001 12 7 993 0.0181 0.0070 0.0001 13 6 994 0.0181 0.0060 0.0001 14 5 995 0.0181 0.0050 +0.0001 ----------------------------------------------- 0.0212 总 - 国王榜眼结果率 抽中探花签的机率：有点麻烦 请各位自个算 XD 最後 国王本次选秀顺位只有以下几种可能 前三顺位 或 10到13之间 (用抽的) (剩下照战绩反排) http://www.nba.com/features/draft2007_consensus.html (07年选秀预测) http://www.nba.com/news/team_lottery_preview.html (07年选秀乐透区球队预览) http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2007/index (07年ESPN选秀网页 - 包含各球队历年选秀状况) 最後 最後 恩 我觉得 国王如果没办法抢到很好的长人 有机会标中本次选秀的第一控球後卫也不错 毕竟选天分不选位置 後来证明都反应比较高的价值 但 这多少打了自己前几年老是补 Combo Guard的动作一记重重耳光 .... --

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