作者pikachu123 (pika)
看板MLB
标题[情报] Replacement Value (Fangraphs)
时间Thu Dec 25 01:40:16 2008
http://tinyurl.com/82x6oo
There’s a new section in the batting player pages which does the job of
calculating a player’s runs over replacement and wins over replacement.
Major thanks goes to Dave Cameron, Sean Smith, and Tangotiger for instructing
me on the best way to do this.
Under each “Value” section you’ll find:
大概说明一下,有错请指正
要了解这个要先讲wOBA是甚麽? wOBA是TangoTiger 所提出的统计数字
wOBA(Weight On-Base Average)
=(0.72xNIBB + 0.75xHBP + 0.90x1B + 0.92xRBOE + 1.24x2B + 1.56x3B + 1.95xHR)
/ PA
简单来说就是有经过加权统计的上垒率
Batting - wRAA (Runs Above Average) with a park adjustment.
wRAA=(wOBA - lgwOBA) / wOBAScale * PA
wRAA则是计算球员得比联盟平均多得几分,这是用wOBA算的
wOBAScale是一个将wOBA转换成Run的基数 每年会有微小的变化
但大概是1.15左右
Fielding - The sum of a player’s UZR.
不用说了就是把UZR的数字都加起来
Replacement - The replacement level adjustment set at 20 Runs / 600 PA.
replacement level的调整每600个PA 20Runs EX:铁爷今年685PA
replacement=20*685/600
Positional - The positional adjustment set using Tangotiger’s values (see
this link)
Positional=
(12.5/162 * G * (C/PG)) + (7.5/162 * G * (SS/PG)) +
(2.5/162 * G * ((P2B+P3B+CF)/PG)) +
(-7.5/162 * G * ((RF+LF)/PG)) + (-12.5/162 * G * (P1B/PG)) +
(-22.5/162 * G * (DH/PG))
Tango说DH 实际上应该是-17.5
EX:A-Rod Positonal=2.5/162*131(3B)+(-17.5/162*7)(DH)=1.3
每个守备有不同的调整常数 有兴趣的可以去 这看
http://tinyurl.com/9rkd4n
Value Runs - The sum of Batting, Fielding, Replacement, and Positional.
把上面那几个数字都加起来
Value Wins - Value Runs converted to a wins scale.
将Value Runs除一个将Runs转成Wins的常数每年不太一样大都在10~11之间巴
今年大概是10.5左右
Dollars - Value Wins converted to the following dollar scale:
将Value Win转成$$
2002 - $2.6m / win
2003 - $2.8m / win
2004 - $3.1m / win
2005 - $3.4m / win
2006 - $3.7m / win
2007 - $4.1m / win
2008 - $4.5m / win
This will all eventually be in the leaderboards and team pages, probably later
this week.
Cool!!!连WAR都有了 Fangraphs就甘心耶
补个例子EX:
Alex Rodriguez 2008 wOBA:0.413
Batting=(0.413-0.334)/1.15*594=40.5
(0.334是lgwOBA,1.15是转换系数 594是他今年的打席数)
Fielding 我不会算UZR XD 直接干FanGraphs的 -0.1
Replacement=20*594/600=19.8
Postional=1.3
Value Run=40.5-0.1+19.8+1.3=61.5
Value Win=61.5/10=6.15
$$=6.15*4.5=27.6M
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※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 125.224.4.137
1F：推 sominithing:!!!!!!!!!!!!! 虽然我看不懂 12/25 01:43
2F：推 hwwof:大意是说 我也看不懂 12/25 01:48
3F：推 andy80209:就甘心耶 装自己看的懂 12/25 01:48
4F：推 jdtrue:大推fangraph 好用:p 12/25 01:50
5F：推 realestate:哇！ 真棒！ 看懂的来说明吧 12/25 01:50
6F：推 jwencmc:嗯嗯...赞喔 怕被笑看不懂 12/25 01:52
7F：推 jdtrue:哇喔 Teixeira的2008 Value Wins是6.8 换算是30.5M！ 12/25 01:57
8F：→ catsondbs:还是看不明有甚麽意思 就是像OPS+一样看看比平均高多少? 12/25 03:14
9F：→ pikachu123:就是算他比Replacement多贡献几胜 12/25 03:21
10F：→ pikachu123:这个数据的目地跟BP的WARP一样,大概Tango要来跟BP PK 12/25 03:22
11F：→ pikachu123:的数据 科科 12/25 03:23
12F：推 gamelist:第一段:Tango Tiger打成Tanog Tiger了 12/25 11:21
※ 编辑: pikachu123 来自: 125.224.4.137 (12/25 13:04)