Five Questions: Oakland Athletics by Sal Baxamusa http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-oakland-athletics3/ : It's a mis-named series, since I've only got four questions. Still, on behalf : of all Oakland partisans, I ask: 标题与内容不符：我(原作者)只有准备四个问题。 尽管如此，我还是要代表忠诚的绿帽迷问: 1. Who's going to be "your boy" this year? 今年你的男孩是谁啊? : Every year, I dub an Oakland Athletic "my boy." Whenever that player does : something good, I run around the house screaming like an idiot, "That's my : boy!" Past recipients of this dubious honor have been Bobby Crosby, Nick : Swisher, Chad Gaudin, and—most embarassingly—Esteban Loaiza. My track : record may not be great, but in sabermetrics it is the process that matters : more than the result. Soldier on, I must! 每年我都把一位绿帽球员册封为"我的男孩",每当他有好表现的时候，我就会绕着我屋子边 跑边大叫，"我的男孩好棒!"，像个蠢蛋一样。过去几年的获奖名单有: Bobby Crosby、 Nick Swisher、Chad Gaudin，还有--最羞於启齿的，Esteban Loaiza。我选人的眼光也许 不是那麽好，不过以数据派的观点来看，过程比结果更重要。因此，我必须坚持下去! : This year, my boy is going to be Dallas Braden. Despite having been on the : radar seemingly forever, Braden is only 25 years old. Over the last two : years, he has struck out well over a batter per inning at Triple-A while : walking about 2.2 batters per nine. His stuff is dubious, except for a : mysterious screwball that he may or may not throw, but he deserves a shot at : the rotation. He'll likely get one this year, and while he's not an All-Star, : he could be worth up to two wins if he starts full-time. Getting that type of : production from your non-prospects means not having to overpay for a guy like : Oliver Perez. 今年，我的男孩将会是Dallas Braden。虽然Braden似乎永远都很受瞩目，他却只有25岁。 过去两个球季，他在3A球队每局可以三振超过一个打者，BB/9是2.2。除了一颗他不知道会 译注:过去两年Braden在3A的K/9分别是10.4(07)跟9.1(08) 不会投的神秘螺旋球之外，他的球威令人质疑。尽管如此，他仍然能在轮值圈中占有一席 之地，今年看起来蛮有机会的。如果他能够整季出赛的话，虽然不会投出全星星级的表现 却能让球队多赢两场球(译注：应是相较於replacement level而言)。能够从不是期待新秀 的球员中获得这样的表现，代表球队GM不用砸大钱去签下Oliver Perez这种球员了。 2.Are the A's collecting the 2002 All-Star team? 绿帽在收集2002全星星公仔队吗? : If so, Jason Giambi and Nomar Garciaparra are a nice start. Oakland also made : an ultimately unsuccessful play for Randy Johnson. 如果是这样的话，Jason Giambi跟Nomar Garciaparra是一个不错的开始。同时，绿帽也有 在竞逐Randy Johnson，只可惜最後失败了。 : Remember when plugging holes with declining veterans was sabermetric : anathema? Times have changed. Three or four years ago, multi-year deals for a : guy like Jason Giambi would have been the norm. Think of the contracts that : Jay Payton and Kevin Millar got. One-year contracts mitigate a lot of the : risks involved with veteran gambits. 记住：如果想把年年走下坡的老将塞进球队的缺口里，只会带来一场数据浩劫。 时代改变了。三四年前，跟Jason Giambi这种球员签下长约根本就是天经地义。 想想Jay Payton跟Kevin Millar拿到的合约吧! 一年约大大降低了使用老将的风险。 : For the A's, Garciaparra is a non-Hannahanian hedge against the : never-quite-right Eric Chavez. Orlando Cabrera, while nothing special, won't : tilt the scales at zero wins above replacement, which once-and-future-MVP : Bobby Crosby is liable to do. The A's, hoping to compete this year while they : have Matt Holliday under contract, are doing the right thing. The downside is : that, come next offseason, the A's will again be scrambling for solutions on : the left side of the infield. 对绿帽来说，Garciaparra能让反对Hannahan上场的人，除了"总是不太好"的Eric Chavez 之外有其他的选择。Orlando Cabrera，尽管并不特别，却不会像"前新人王"Bobby Crosby 一样，成为球队的拖油瓶。绿帽抓进了合约即将到期的Matt Holliday，希望今年能够闯进 季後赛。依我看来，他们做的一点都没错。唯一的烦恼是，他们明年还是要寻找左外野的 答案。 3.Has Jason Giambi ever been to Oakland? 技安比曾到过奥克兰吗? : The Giambi signing makes a little less sense. Daric Barton isn't nearly the : hitter Giambi is, but there's a decently-sized defensive gap. I wasn't a fan : of the Giambi signing initially, considering it a lateral move at best, but : I'm starting to come around. A little time at Triple-A could do Barton some : good, and it's not likely that Giambi and Travis Buck are going to be healthy : all the time anyhow. Barton will get a chance to contribute this year, and : the Giambi signing is more about depth for the inevitable rash of injuries : than it is an end to Barton's Oakland career. 相较之下，签下Giambi就显得有些奇怪。Daric Barton在打击上当然不能跟Giambi相提并 论，不过防守上他跟Giambi相比胜出不只一筹。我一开始并不太喜欢签下技安，认为最多 只是个水平移动，谈不上什麽大作用。不过我现在开始改观了：在3A多待一下下，对於 Barton来说不是坏事，Giambi跟Buck也不可能整季都健康出赛。因此，Barton还是有机会 偷到一些上场时间，对球队做出贡献。绿帽签下Giambi，并不代表Barton在绿帽的日子就 此终结，而是对於无可避免的伤病问题所采取加强深度的一着棋。 : And Giambi gets to follow in the footsteps of Mike Piazza and Frank Thomas, : two other late-career sluggers the A's signed in the past few years. But : Giambi is also very different than those two because of his previous history : in Oakland. He was the central figure on the early-decade Oakland : juggernauts. No Oakland fan will forget his walk-off homer against Mike : Stanton, capping a late-August sweep of the dreaded Yankees and putting the : exclamation mark on an 11-game winning streak. Giambi was supposed to the : lead the A's to the promised land, past the Yankees, and into the World : Series. Instead, he signed with the enemy. He went on Letterman and said bad : things about Oakland. He was booed mercilessly in Oakland. I was there. I : booed, too. Giambi追随前辈Mike Piazza跟Frank Thomas的脚步，成为近年来在生涯末期加入绿帽的 第三位重炮。但是Giambi又跟前面两位很不一样，因为他是凤还巢。在21世纪前几年的 绿帽王朝中，Giambi扮演着不可或缺的重要角色。没有绿帽迷会忘记他从Mike Stanton手 中击出的再见全垒打，在八月下旬横扫万恶洋基，为绿帽11连胜谱上大大的惊叹号。 Giambi本来应该带领绿帽前往应许之地，跨过洋基打进世界大赛。相反地，他最後投奔敌 营，并且投书狂表绿帽。於是，他在奥克兰被狂嘘，我就在那里，我也跟着嘘。 : There's a certain bit of karmic retribution, then, to have Giambi come back : to Oakland, ringless as the day he left for New York. Get on the field and : earn your way back into my heart, G. Giambi必须经历一段阵痛期，那些对他的批评。然後，就如同他指上无环出发前往纽约 的那一天一样，他回来了。上场去赢回我的心吧! 大吉 4.Do the A's seriously think they can catch the Angels? 绿帽真以为自己能追上天使吗? : They do, and they're not crazy to think so. The answer has little to do with : the individual team rosters. Excuse me for a minute while I totally geek out. 确实如此，同时他们的想法并不疯狂。答案跟25人名单其实没有太大关系。各位看倌 且容我慢慢道来。 : Teams have some level of true talent, and analysts try to determine what that : talent is. That true talent could be dynamic. That true talent might be : calculated exactly by BaseRuns and Pythagoras, or it might be hard to know : because a team has the clutchiest players who ever did clutch. It doesn't : really matter how a team wins game, as long as we recognize that some teams : are better at it than others. 每一队都有他们各自的真本事，分析家试着把这些本领抓出来。但是球技是动态的。也许 我们可以用BaseRuns或是Pythagoras把球队之间的强弱算出，不过如果一队有着在关键时 刻就会爆发的所有球员，那麽分析就不准了。一旦我们体会到某些球队真的很强之後， 他们到底是怎麽赢球，就没有那麽重要了。 : When we look past the homers, the drama, and—yes—the fun, the baseball : season is just a collection of weighted coin tosses. In any given 162-game : trial, a 90-win team could win 90 times, and on average it will. But : sometimes it will win 95 or 100 games, or maybe only 85. If a 90-win team : wins only 85 games it doesn't mean that it is unlucky or unclutch. It just : is, and it's something that a lot of baseball fans have a hard time : accepting. By the same token, an inferior team—say, an 81-win team—can win : 90 games in a 162-game trial. 当我们忽略那些全垒打啊、剧场啊、还有--没错--所有有趣的东西时，棒球球季就只是 一连串丢掷硬币结果再做加权的集合罢了。在所有162场比赛的尝试里，一支90胜的球队可 能刚好赢90场，就跟平均一样。不过有时候这支球队也有可能赢到95~100场，或者是85场 如果一支90胜的球队只有赢85场，这并不表示这支球队带衰，或者是关键时刻熄火。这只 是代表很多棒球迷无法接受这样的事实。同样地，一支比较差的球队，比方说81胜吧， 也有可能赢到90胜。 : So, there's a possbility that a .500 team out-wins a .550 team over the : course of a season. How likely is it? I worked this problem out a few years : ago, and I'll spare you the details, but the answer is about 1-in-6. 所以，一支季初预测.500胜率的球队最後战绩比季初预测.550胜率的球队好也是有可能的 机率有多大呢？我几年前有做过这样的研究，省略掉细节，机率大约是1/6。 : Are the Angels a better team than the A's? Probably. How much? That's up for : debate. A reasonable estimate is that the A's are between four and six games : worse than their rivals to the north. In that case, the A's stand about a 30 : percent chance of winning the division. 猴子军团有比绿帽更好吗? 或许吧! 好多少? 这就有得吵了。一个合理的估计是绿帽预测 战绩大概比他们北方的敌人少了4~6场胜场。这样的话，绿帽大约有30%的机会赢下分区。 : Maybe you think all the numbers make me a killjoy. I beg to differ. The : numbers show that, even when one team is clearly better, there's still a : pretty good chance that we get the unexpected result. When teams are within a : few games of each other, we've officially entered too-close-to-call : territory. And, to me at least, that's what makes it so much fun. 或许你觉得这些数字让人十分扫兴。让我来澄清一下。数字显示，即使是一支球队明显 比较好，仍然有相当高的机会产生让人意想不到的结果。当两支球队实力只差几场比赛 的时候，我们就正式进入了"胶着到难以判断"的地步。至少，对我来说，这就是棒球迷人 之处。 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.243.242 ※ A1pha:转录至看板 Athletics 03/21 17:17 ※ 编辑: YGJHSU 来自: 140.112.243.242 (03/21 19:41)