== Five questions: Chicago White Sox == Year-in, year-out, the AL Central might be the hardest division in baseball to predict. The White Sox and Twins seemingly always do a bit better than the conventional wisdom expects. The Indians typically underachieve. The Tigers do well when I expect them to fall back, and vice-versa. Thank God for the Royals. At least they always suck. 这几年下来，美联中区大概是最难预测的一个分区。白袜和双城总是能表现得 比那些专家预测的更好一些；印地安人则是典型的差强人意。老虎的表现总是 与我的预测相反: 当我认为他们表现会很差劲的时候，他们却做得不错--反之 亦然--当我认为他们可以打得不错时，他们却打得很惨。感谢老天，还好美联 中区有皇家(会符合我的预测)，至少他们一直都很烂。 Anyhow, if it's normally a fool's errand to determine what will happen in the future, it's doubly foolish to figure out what will happen to a team like the Chicago White Sox. Fortunately for THT, I have enough fool in me for a room full of fools. 不管怎样，如果「预测未来」这件事被视为是一件极度愚蠢的事--因为不可能 会成功--那「预测白袜队的表现」大概是两倍等级的愚蠢。还好我够幸运，在 THT(The Hardball Times)这里，有一群跟我一样的傻子愿意做这样的傻事， 还有一脱拉库愿意听我们练疯话的人。 (这段最後一句不确定该怎麽翻...) The Sox are a team in transition. They suffered through a disappointing 2009 season, posting their second losing season of the century. They've lost two of their offensive cornerstones - DH Jim Thome and former World Series MVP Jermaine Dye in the off-season. After this year, contracts end for the only two position players left from the 2005 world champions: first baseman Paul Konerko and catcher AJ Pierzynski. 白袜队正在经历过渡期，他们刚熬过一个令人失望的2009球季，那是他们在本 世纪第二失败的球季。休赛期间，白袜的打线失去了两块重要基石--指定打击 Jim Thome与前世界大赛最有价值球员Jermaine Dye。今年球季後，最後两名 仅存的2005冠军成员(投手除外)--一垒手Paul Konerko和捕手AJ Pierzynski 的合约也即将到期。 That said, the White Sox aren't a team to lie fallow for a few years. GM Kenny Williams has shown a desire to balance winning now and winning down the road. It's a testament to his savvy that they've only had two losing seasons in his tenure despite lacking the resources of many other perennial winning franchises. So let's get to it the annual Five Questions. 这表示白袜队在这几年将不会是支安静的球队--球团动作可能很频繁。白袜的 总管Kenny Williams已经展现了他「不只现在要赢球，以後也要能赢」的渴望。 在他的任内，白袜只有两个球季胜率不足五成，这证明了他的确很清楚他在做 什麽(而且做得不错)，尽管白袜球团不像其他常胜军球团拥有庞大的资源。 好，现在让我们来看看白袜的年度五大问答吧! -------------------------前言结束 正文开始------------------------- 1. Do the White Sox have the best rotation in the league? 白袜的先发投手轮值是全联盟最强的吗?? Let's start with the positive parts of the White Sox: their starting rotation. Perennial ace Mark Buehrle returns to lead the Sox. He's as consistent as they come: with eight quality seasons in his nine campaigns in the starting rotation. Perhaps more impressively, he's only missed two starts in that time (both in September 2007). 我们先从白袜的强项--也就是他们的先发轮值--来谈起吧! 胜投收集者‧王牌 Mark Buehrle重回白袜轮值的领导地位。比起轮值里的其他投手，他的表现稳 定多了。在他最近的九个球季，有八个球季的表现都相当够水准。或许他更令 人印象深刻的，是他在这几年里只错过了两场先发(两场都在2007年九月)。 Joining him are kids John Danks and Gavin Floyd, both of whom experienced their second consecutive strong showing in 2009. Floyd's win-loss record was down last year - 11-11 after a 17-8 showing in 2008 - but his strikeout, walk, and home run rate all improved last year. His record obscures more than it reveals. (For that matter, the same might be said of his ERA. It got worse in 2009 because he allowed only six unearned runs, unlike the big 19 UER he had in 2008.) 紧接着加入由Buehrle领军的轮值阵容的是两个年轻的小夥子: John Danks与 Gavin Floyd。这两个人都在2009年投出他们连续第二年的好表现。虽然Floyd 去年的胜负成绩只有11胜11负，比起他2008年的17胜8负逊色不少，但他的夺 三振、保送、和被全垒打率都进步了。他的胜负纪录掩盖了他的好表现。(此 外，他的自责分率也是同样的情况。表面上看来，他在2009年的成绩似乎变差 了，但那是因为他2009年的失分里只有6分非自责分，不像他2008年的失分里 有高达19分都是非自责分。 That gives the Sox a great core, which the Sox round out from the injury-recovering Jake Peavy and Freddy Garcia. Peavy is a great talent -health permitting. Garcia has also been good each of the last two years, but he's only been able to muster 12 starts in that time. If everyone keeps their arms attached, the Sox will have a devastating rotation, but what are the odds of that? 这三个人加上伤癒的Jake Peavy和Freddy Garcia，建构了白袜强大的核心。 Peavy是天才等级的投手--当然啦~ 这必须以他能保持健康为前提。Garcia在 过去这两年也投得不差，只是他总共也才先发了12场。如果每个人都可以保持 状态，白袜将会拥有一个足以杀爆全联盟的轮值。但是，全员保持健康的机率 会有多少? Well, here's one little nugget I dug up: Since 2005 White Sox pitchers have had 16 different performances with at least 32 starts in the season. In that time, no other AL team has had more than 10 32-start achievements. That's rather impressive: the Sox are averaging more than three per year and no other squad is over two. 嘿~ 我发现了一件有趣的事，你们可能会想知道: 自2005年以来，白袜的投手 达成了16次单季先发满32场以上的纪录。这段期间，美联没有任何一队能够达 成(先发投手单季先发满32场)这项纪录超过10次。我换个方式讲好了，或许会 让你更有感觉: 白袜先发轮值的五名投手，平均每年会有三位以上的投手可以 先发超过32场; 其他球队里，没有任何一队的轮值里能超过两名投手单季先发 超过32场。 That tells us a few things. Most notably the Sox acquire good starting pitchers. It also tells us that the Sox do a good job taking care of their starters. The team doesn't have a magic wand and "POOF" - everyone suddenly gives them 32 solid starts. Just last year Bartolo Colon flopped for them. That said, a pitcher has as good a chance to stay healthy here as anywhere. I'd expect one of the two injury-recoverees to be healthy. If it's Peavy, they'll easily have the best rotation in the league. 这告诉我们一些事，其中最明显的就是--白袜总是能找到好的先发投手。这也 告诉我们白袜球团很懂得怎样照顾他们的先发投手。白袜队并没有魔杖，可以 「蹦」的一声就变出32场够水准的先发。白袜没有照顾好的，大概只有去年的 Bartolo Colon吧! 也就是说，如果你是一名投手，你在白袜队能保持健康的 机率，大於其他任何一队。我猜Garcia跟Peavy两个人之中至少会有一个人能 保持健康。如果这个人是Peavy，那白袜轻易地就能拥有全联盟最强的轮值。 2. Why would they sign Andruw Jones? 他们为什麽要签下Andruw Jones? It's a damn good thing the Sox might have such a wonderful rotation, because their offense inspires no such feelings of joy. They suffered through a losing campaign in 2009 because of their offense, which ranked 12th in runs scored despite playing in a hitter's haven. 「白袜可能拥有全联盟最强的轮值」这件事真是他妈的太好了! 因为他们的 攻击实在是很难让人感到开心。他们去年输惨惨就是因为他们的进攻火力弱， 即使在一个打者天堂般的主场，他们的总得分在联盟也只不过排在第12名。 They've jettisoned several of their starting position players from last year, which makes sense under the circumstances. However, the most notable of the departed - Dye and Thome - were among two of four White Sox players to break 100 OPS+ last year. The departure of Thome is an especially big blow to their offense, as he was their OPS king last year. 去年他们丢掉了一些打者，就整体经营情况看来似乎是合理的动作。然而， 这些球员的离队还是造成球队进攻火力上极大的影响，特别是Thome跟Dye。 白袜去年只有4名球员的OPS+超过100，其中两名就是Thome跟Dye，而这两人 之中又以Thome的离队对於球队攻击火力影响特别严重，因为他是去年球队 的OPS+之王。 Which brings us to the topic at hand. Of all the signings by the Chi Sox this off-season, perhaps the biggest (both in terms of name wattage and personal tonnage) was one-time wunderkid Andruw Jones. He'll step into Thome's vacated DH slot. This strikes me as an interesting gamble for the Sox to take. I don't really like the odds of it, but Jones is an interesting guy to take a flyer on. 於是，这些离队的球员与新加入的球员给了我们另一个值得讨论的主题。在 这麽多位(在休赛期间)新签下的球员中，最重量级(不论是名气还是体重)的 或许就是曾被视为是强打少年的Andruw Jones。他将填补Thome离开所空下 来的DH位置。 我认为签下Andruw Jones让是白袜一笔很有趣的赌注。我其实并不看好白袜 会赌赢，但他就是这麽一个有意思的家伙，会让球队想去赌一把。 First the bad news: Jones has been terrible for a while now. Last year he hit .214 in limited playing time with the Rangers - and that was his most successful season since 2006. Last year, he had enough power to qualify as an offensive mediocrity, whereas he was one of the worst hitters in all baseball in 2008, and merely typically terrible in 2007. He's 33 this year, and as a general rule of thumb, a guy at that age who's been wretched two of the last three years isn't the guy you want on your team. 首先，我要告诉各位一个坏消息: Jones已经烂了好几年了。他去年在有限 的上场时间里，在游骑兵打出.214的打击率--而这已经是他在2006年以来打 得最好的一年了。去年，他展现了足够的长打火力，但也仅能让他成为一个 刚好及格的打者罢了。而大家可别忘了他在2008年是全联盟最烂的打者之一， 在2007年也好不到哪里去。他今年已经33岁了，依照常理来说，一个这样年 纪的球员，过去几年又都打得很惨，你不会希望招揽他加入你的球队的。 Aye, but there's a little more to Andruw Jones. He doesn't lack the talent: He's just blown his talent. He was good enough to crack an MLB starting lineup at age 20. By age 23, he was a Gold Glove-winning centerfielder All-Star who hit over .300 with 36 homers. He should've had 15 more good seasons in front of him, health permitting. 是的，但Jones有的不只这些。他从来不缺天份，只不过他浪费了这些天份。 他在20岁的时候就足以占据大联盟球队先发打线的其中一个位置，23岁已经 是金手套中外野手，还入选全明星赛，单季打出三成打击率和36发全垒打。 如果他保持健康，应该已经有过15个以上的美好球季。 But he didn't take care of himself off the field, and quickly became a one-dimensional dinger-machine on the field. The gamble for the White Sox is simple: Can he reconnect with some of his once formidable talent to become a quality player? He'll never be what he promised to be, but he can hopefully do well enough to replace an aging Thome. If nothing else, Jones is coming to a park that's nice for home run hitters. 但他在场外并没有好好照顾自己，而且很快地变成一名在球场上除了打全垒 打以外什麽都不会的单功能干炮机器。白袜的赌注很简单: 他能找回那些曾 经优异的天份而成为一位合格球员吗? 他已经不可能成为那种他曾经有机会 成为的伟大球员了，但他仍希望能表现得够好，足以取代Jime Thome。除去 其他的不讲，Jones的确来到了一个对於干炮型球员很nice的球场。 I don't like Jones' odds. He fell too far for me to think he'll be worth a fart. Last year's middling performance might be the ceiling for him. If he does flail, the Sox are in trouble. Who DH's then? I suppose they could put Konerko or Carlos Quentin there, but that just shifts a hole. The main veteran bat on the bench is Mark Kotsay, who's hit .270 with minimal power during the last five years. They could put their highly touted young catcher Tyler Flowers in the DH, but even if he's as good as expected, he'll have to get up to speed first. 我并不看好Jones能有多大的反弹，他已经烂到谷底了，对我来说他的价值 跟个屁一样。他去年那种中等等级的表现大概就是他现在的极限了。 如果他继续烂下去，那白袜就有大麻烦了: 到时谁来打DH? 假设他们到时候 让Konerko或Quentin来打DH，那也只不过是挖洞补洞而已。板凳上最有经验 的打者是Mark Kotsay，他过去五年的打击率是.270，只有小小的长打能力。 白袜也可以把他们备受看好的年轻捕手Tyler Flowers摆到DH，但就算他能 符合期望地打得很好，他最终也得移往一垒。 3. Who's in the outfield? 外野手是哪些人? The team has completely redecorated its starting outfield, and like the DH, question marks exist at every position. In left, they have a man who has never played for the team. In center, a man who wasn't in Chicago last Opening Day. Their right fielder has been with the club for a couple of years, but has never played an inning in right for them. 球队彻底地把外野阵容重新打造了一番，DH也是。於是大家对这些位置都有 疑问。在左外野，他们找来了一位从为在白袜打过球的家伙，中外野这家伙 去年开季时还在别队，右外野手虽然在白袜打了好几年，但他从来没有在这 支球队守过右外野。 The left fielder is Juan Pierre, who the Sox got at a discount from the Dodgers, who were willing to eat part of the salary in order to dump the rest of it. Pierre replaces Scott Podsednik, which is appropriate because they are such similar players. Both are power-free, singles hitters who can steal bases. Also, both performed especially well last year. Pierre should be a step down. It's not a matter of talent, just that Pierre's unlikely to have a second straight Indian Summer season. 左外野手Juan Pierre是白袜从躲人那里用打折价买来的，躲人为了摆脱他 剩下的合约，宁可吃下部分薪水也要把他送走。Pierre取代的是Podsednik， 喔真是再适合不过了，因为他们两个根本是一样的球员--都是零炮瓦、没有 长打、有盗垒能力的腿哥。而且，两个人去年都表现得特别好。今年Pierre 的成绩应该会下修，这跟天份无关，纯粹是他大概没办法连续第二年都打出 像去年那样回光返照一般(不寻常)的火热球季。 In center, is Alex Rios. If Pierre was in the clouds last year, then Rios was in the sewers. He was a consistent performer in Toronto from 2006-08, hitting around .300 with tweener power. Last year, Toronto jettisoned him (and his sizable salary) after a slow start, and his performance in Chicago was pitiful. In 41 games, he batted .199/.229/.301. That's beyond dreadful. The Sox need him to step it up, obviously. He ought to - just given how low he hit it's almost impossible he'd stay down that low. The real question of how high will he bounce back up. Right now it's a guessing game. I don't think he'll ever receive another All-Star selection, but he should be serviceable. 站在中外野的是Alex Rios。如果Pierre去年的表现像是漫步在云端，那Rios 去年的表现大概就像是在下水道的污水里游泳。2006到2008年，Rios在蓝鸟 一直都是个表现稳定的打者，有着大约三成的打击率，还有中上等级的炮瓦。 Rios去年开季的低潮让蓝鸟决定摆脱他(还有他庞大的合约)，他来到芝加哥 後的表现却更可悲: 41场比赛，打击三围.199/.229/.301，我想惨不忍睹还 不足以形容他的惨况。 很明显的，白袜队需要他重新站起来，而他也应该做到--毕竟要他再打得像 去年那麽烂也是很不容易的。真正问题在於: 他能触底反弹多少? 目前为止 还没人能知道，大家都只能猜。我不认为他能再次打出全明星身手，但他应 该能对球队有所贡献。 Last and most importantly, the Sox need Carlos Quentin to return to his offensive 2008 form while adjusting to right field at The Cell. After a breakthrough 2008 season which saw him finish fifth in MVP voting, he suffered through an injury-plagued 2009 as foot problems sapped his ability to produce at the plate. He's the best bet for a considerable offensive improvement on the team. Not only should he be healed, but he's just now entering his prime, as this will be his age-27 season. The Sox need Quentin to produce. With Dye and Thome gone, Konerko and Pierzynski likely to decline, and varying degrees of uncertainty in the rest of the outfield, another disappointing campaign from Quentin could leave the entire offense in such dire straits that even their vaunted rotation can't save them. 最後也是最重要的: 白袜需要Quentin在移防右外野後能找回他在2008年的 攻击形态。在大爆发的2008球季--MVP票选第五名--之後，持续的脚伤减低 了他在本垒板的贡献能力，也使得他在2009球季的表现大幅下滑。如果你想 赌一名球员能在今年大幅提昇白袜的进攻火力，那Quentin绝对是你的最佳 选择。因为除了他的伤势痊癒以外，他正步入球员生涯的巅峰期--他的27岁 球季。 白袜需要Quentin的贡献。在Dye和Thome离队，Konerko和Pierzynski的表现 可能会下滑，还有存在於外野诸多的不确定因素之下，要是Quentin再一次 打出像去年那种令人失望的成绩，那白袜的进攻将会陷入永不翻身的窘境， 再强大的先发轮值也救不了他们。 4. What does the future hold for Gordon Beckham? 怎样的未来在等着Gordan Beckham? Good things - and lots of them. His performance with the Sox last year showed that the team was right to draft him with their No. 1 pick in 2008, and then move him out of the minors after only 59 games. The kid looks like the real deal and should have a terrific future in front of him. That's in the long run, in the short term, there might be a bump in the road. Even really talented players rarely have a perfectly smooth path toward the All-Star Game. Besides, Beckham will be learning his third position in as many years in 2010. The Sox drafted him as a shortstop, shifted him to third last year and now will move him to second, in order to make room for the newly acquired Mark Teahan. That might cause a little trouble in 2010, but it's nothing Beckham can't get over. 好消息! 很多好消息! 他去年的表现证明了白袜当初的决定是对的--包括用 2008年第一个选秀权选了他，还有仅让他在小联盟打了59场比赛就把他升到 大联盟。这孩子是个真货，他有美好的未来等着他。 但他要走的路还很长，短期之内他可能会遇到些挫折。毕竟就算是极具天赋 的球员，在通往全明星赛的道路上也不见得一路顺遂。更何况Beckham还正 在2010年还得学习他这几年来的第三个守备位置。白袜当初选进他的时候， 他是一名游击手，去年他被移往三垒，今年为了让位置给新入团的Teahan， 他又被移去守二垒。这在2010年可能会造成Beckham一些麻烦，但这对他来 说并不是什麽不能搞定的事。 For a clearer picture what's in store for him, I did a little digging for comps. Last year, the 22-year-old Beckham posted a 107 OPS+. So, I went to Baseball-Reference.com's excellent Play Index and did a search for seasons by: 1) 22-year-olds since 1900, who 2) played an infield defensive position (short, third, or second), 3) posted an OPS+ between 97 and 117, and 4) either qualified for a batting title or had 400 PA. Fifty-three names popped up. Two were in 2009 (Beckham himself and Everth Cabrera) - leaving the remaining 51 to serve as forecasting tools for Beckham. (I know B-ref has easily available sim scores, but I don't really trust them because of the differences of era and park. Besides, I think it matters to account for defensive position.) I then dug into their careers to get an idea what the short- and long-term future could be for him (they're all listed in references and resources at the end of this column if your curious). 为了要更清楚地预测他的球员生涯全貌，我找了一些资料来做比较。去年， 22岁的Beckham打出了107OPS+的成绩。所以，我上Baseball-Reference网站 使用了它的Play Index功能，找出1900年来符合下列(单季表现)条件的球员: (1) 22岁。 (2) 防守2B/SS/3B。 (3) OPS+在97到117之间。 (4) 有足够的打席可以在打击排行榜列名或是打超过400打席。 结果出来了，有53个名字符合这些条件，其中两个是在2009球季，一个正是 Beckham，另一个是Everth Cabrera。我把这两笔资料拿掉，留下51笔做为 预测Beckham生涯成绩的工具。(我知道B-ref网站可以模拟出生涯成绩，但 我不相信它的预测结果，它没有考量不同世代与球场的因素，而且我认为守 备位置也应该要列入考虑。)然後，我开始研究这51名球员的生涯成绩，以 预测Beckham的短期与长期成绩。(想看51人完整名单的请按End。) Let's look at the long-term results first. These look fantastic for Beckham. Of the 51 players, eight are currently in Cooperstown: Joe Sewell, Joe Tinker, Joe Cronin, Bobby Doerr, Robin Yount, Lou Boudreau, Tony Lazzeri, and Billy Herman. Several others could, will, or ought to be enshrined, ranging from Pete Rose to Roberto Alomar to Derek Jeter. There's scarcely a bum on the list. Of the 41 retired players, only three played fewer than 1,000 games in their career: Sean Burroughs (he hasn't played in four years? I feel old), Johnny Hodapp, and Erve Beck. Meanwhile, 30 played at least 1,500 games, 11 of whom played in more than 2,000. They averaged 1,751 games played. Games played are a rough tool, but they indicate clearly how long someone remains effective. 我们先来看看长期的结果吧! 这结果看起来真是太梦幻了! 51位球员中，有 8位球员已经进入名人堂，分别是: Joe Sewell、Joe Tinker... (详见原文) 名单上还有一些人虽然还没进名人堂，但未来八成会进的，像: Pete Rose、 Roberto Alomar还有Derek Jeter。 这份名单上几乎找不到弱咖，在41位已退休球员里，只有3名球员生涯出赛 低於1000场(Sean Burroughs、Johnny Hodapp和Erve Beck)，30位球员生涯 出赛超过1500场，其中有11位球员出赛超过2000场(平均1751场)。光看生涯 出赛数虽然是很粗糙的分析，但出赛数却是一项评断该球员是否保持竞争力 的指标。 That's nice, but what matters for the Sox in 2010 is the short term, and here the results are a bit less rosy. Even though these guys were great at age 22 and had long, productive careers, they mostly took a step back at age 23. That isn't too surprising, but worth noting. By Batting Wins (which has the added bonus over OPS+ of also accounting for playing time), only 20 of the 51 got better. In all, they went from 266.5 collective batting wins to 202.3. Oh, added bonus: of Beckham's 51 comps, only four peaked at age 22, according to Batting Wins. 喔这真是太美好了! 但对於2010白袜队来说，重要的是Beckham的短期表现， 而我的分析结果就没有像长期这麽乐观罗! 即使这51名球员在22岁时的表现 相当优异而且有着很棒的生涯，他们大部分的人在23岁都有些退步。这结果 并不让人意外，但却值得一提。51名球员里，Batting Wins(详见注1.)进步 的人只有20位，全部的人Batting Wins总和也从266.5退步到202.3。喔对了， 讲点开心的: 在这51名球员里，只有4名球员(以Batting Wins来看)的巅峰 在22岁。 注1. http://www.baseball-statistics.com/Leaders/glossary.htm I expect Beckham to have a terrific career, but 2010 might be one step back before two steps forward. This is another reason why I think Quentin is so key for the Sox this year. They had seven regulars post an OPS+ of 90 or higher on last year's lousy offensive squad. Three are gone. Two are both on the wrong side of 30 and coming off years when they improved their hitting (which is to say especially unlikely to keep up last year's production). Beckham, the sixth, may endure growing pains. I don't trust Andruw Jones, leaving Quentin as their big force. 我期待Beckham有一个美好的生涯，但2010年的他可能会有小小的退步。 这也是为什麽我认为Quentin的状况将决定白袜今年的命运的原因。在去年 那个惨淡的打线里，他们还有七名固定先发球员的OPS+在90以上，不过今年 走了三个(Dye/Thome/Podsednik)，还有两个已经30好几岁了(AJP/Konerko)， 他们早已远离那个打击年年进步的年纪(要重现去年的绩效大概很难)。至於 打第六棒的Beckham则可能遇到成长必经的苦难。我不相信Andruw Jones， Quentin才是白袜最大支的棒子。 5. Can the Sox win the division in 2010? 白袜可以在分区称雄吗? So far, I've presented a mixed approach. I like their starting pitching, but am skeptical of their offense. The White Sox have one special advantage, though: They play in the AL Central. The Royals have been so bad for so long they can be discounted on general principles. Last year the Indians went through their biggest give-away of possessions Ohio had seen since the Treaty of Greenville. The Twins just lost Joe Nathan. The Tigers are hardly a sure thing. 目前为止，我已经针对各个面向都做了分析。我喜欢他们的先发投手，对於 他们的进攻打线则充满怀疑。但白袜有一项最特别的优势: 他们在美联中区。 皇家一直都很烂所以不用考虑他们。去年印地安人进行了继Greenville协议 (详见注2.)以来Ohio最大的清仓大拍卖，而双城刚刚失去Joe Nathan，老虎 则是一切都还不确定。 注2. http://encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/Treaty+of+Greenville I can see arguments for the Sox, Tigers, or Twins taking it. Then again, I can also see arguments for all five teams finishing with a losing record. I expect one team will pull off a quality season, though. For the White Sox, I think it's simple: If Peavy and Quentin both produce, Chicago will win the division easily. If neither does, the team is screwed. If one does, it'll be a fight for the flag. 我可以预见白袜、老虎和双城争夺分区冠军。同样的，我也可以预见这五支 美联中区的球队都以胜率低於五成作收。不过，我认为大概会有一队能有个 不错的球季。 对於白袜呢... 很简单，只要Peavy跟Quentin都能发挥，赢得分区冠军只是 信手拈来的事。如果两个人都失常，那这支球队就毁了。如果只有一个人有 发挥，那他们大概要很拼。 -- The 51 comps for Beckham: (ordered from highest to lowest OPS+ at age 22) Hank Blalock, Eric Chavez, Hanley Ramirez, Joe Sewell, Chris Speier, Bobby Doerr, Harlond Clift, Alan Trammell, Lou Boudreau, Gregg Jeffries, Ron Hansen, Robin Yount, Dan Driessen, Ron Hunt, Red Smith, Troy Tulowitzki, Carney Lansford, Tony Lazzeri, Donie Bush, Joe Tinker, Lou Whitaker, Marty McManus, - (the next three guys had an OPS+ of exactly 107, just like Beckham) - Ryan Zimmerman, Eddie Yost, Joe Cronin, Robinson Cano, Sean Burroughs, Carlos Baerga, Travis Fryman, Billy Herman, Milt Stock, Tony Cuccinello, Bill Bradley, Johnny Hodapp, Dick Bartell, Aurelio Rodriquez, Erve Beck, Omar Infante, Derek Jeter, Willie Randolph, Pete Rose, Harvey Kuenn, Cecil Travis, Dick McAuliffe, Troy Glaus, Roberto Alomar, Bill Coughlin, Rafael Furcal, Steve Sax, Buddy Meyer, and Bill Sweeney. 现役三大游击手都被拿来类比耶... Beckham要成为下一个Future HOFer了吗? -- 终於翻完了 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 163.29.130.56 ※ 编辑: KennyKuo 来自: 163.29.130.56 (04/01 16:38)