※ [本文转录自 NY-Yankees 看板] ※ 引述《appshjkli (猫肉球)》之铭言： : http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-new-york-yankees5/ : Five questions: New York Yankees 洋基五问 : by Dan Turkenkopf : April 01, 2010 : 2009 was a obviously a very successful year for the Yankees. The offseason : spending spree, which netted the team Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia, and A.J. : Burnett, paid off big time, with 103 regular-season wins and a 27th World : Series title. 2009 对洋基来说当然是个很成功的球季。 在前一个冬天砸下大钱签下Teixiera / Sabathia / Burnett 的投资立刻就有了很高的报酬， 那就是个103胜的球季外加第27座 世界冠军。 : While last season's roster churn was fueled largely by free agent movement, : this winter's mostly involved some big trades. Sure, Johnny Damon and Hideki : Matsui came off the books, but the really big events were the deals that : netted the team Curtis Granderson and Javier Vazquez. 前一年的冬天最主要的名单异动都是来自自由球员市场，而这个冬天则是以交易为主。 没错，Damon 跟 Matsui 两人的合约到期了，但最重要的变动是来自於获得Granderson 跟Vazquez 的交易。 : Despite the recent success, the Yankees have faced a number of questions this : offseason. Joe Girardi already answered the related questions of the fifth : starter and Joba Chamberlain's immediate role, while questions as to Derek : Jeter's future are unanswerable until after the season. Instead of providing : yet another voice to the chorus singing answers to those questions, we'll : focus here on some that may be less overdone, but no less important. 尽管他们去年非常成功，洋基还是有面临一些问题，Giradi 已经必须选择了谁是五号跟 Joba 今年的定位，而Jeter的未来需要等到球季後才能定案。 这些已经谈到烂的问题就 先放一边，让我们来看一些同样重要但是还没被过度解读的问题。 : 1. Is the offense susceptible to left-handed pitching? 1. 洋基会怕左投吗? : Perhaps the Yankees biggest offseason acquisition was Curtis Granderson from : the Detroit Tigers. Granderson will play center field and is currently : projected to bat seventh. The biggest knock on Granderson throughout his : career has been his inability to hit left-handed pitching. As Matt Klaassen : points out over at Fangraphs, Granderson's career .358 wOBA breaks down to : .380 against right-handers and .270 against lefties. In general, his entire : offensive game degrades against lefties. He walks less, strikes out more, and : hits for a lot less power. And this has been consistent for a while. Still, : as Klaassen argues, that doesn't mean Granderson is expected to show that : large of a platoon split going forward. Using the findings of The Book, he : estimates that Granderson's projected wOBA against southpaws as .311. 洋基冬天最大的动作之一就是换到Granderson, Granderson 大概会先发第七棒的中外野手 。 他的生涯到目前为止最受批评的就是他打不到左投， Fangraphs 的 Matt Klaassen 指出Granderson 生涯的 .358 wOBA 可以分为 .380 vs 右投 .270 vs 左投。 他几乎整 体的表现都是面对左投差， 保送变少，三振变多，炮瓦下降，但是Klaassen 认为这不代 表Granderson 接下来的表现也会有如此夸大的差距，他根据他的研究认为Granderson 愈 期对上左投的 wOBA 大约会是.311 : So Granderson is still somewhat of a black hole against lefties, but not : likely as bad as he's shown so far. What about some of the other Yankees? : There are three other lefties in the starting lineup and three switch : hitters. Brett Gardner has shown a small platoon split in his short career, : while Nick Johnson has demonstrated a small reverse split. Teixeira is a : little bit better from the right side than the left, as is Nick Swisher, : while Jorge Posadais about the same from both sides of the plate. Granderson 无疑会是个对上左投的弱点，但是大概不会像到目前为止的那麽离谱。 那其他人呢? 打线中还有三个左打跟三个左右开弓的打者，Gardner目前面对左投只有 略差一些，Johnson 打左投还略好一些。 Teixeira跟Swisher都是 从右边打略好一些。 而Posada 几乎是完全一样。 : The bench will likely have Randy Winn and Marcus Thames, who generally hit : left-handers well (although Winn was horrendous against them in 2009). And : Thames may see some time in a platoon with Gardner in left field, which would : help the offense against lefties (although hurt the defense). 板凳上有Winn 跟 Thames, 两个人通常都很擅长打左投(不过Winn 去年奇烂无比)。Thames 可能在面对左投的时後会分摊一些Gardner的时间，那会对左投的打击有帮助(但是守备 就..) : All in all, despite being a little bit left-handed-heavy, there are enough : weapons in the lineup that it won't get completely shut down by left-handed : pitching. And while the AL East has some good left-handed pitchers in Jon : Lester, David Price, and Brian Matusz, there really aren't that many lefties : that the Yankees will see on a regular basis. 整体来说，虽然他们左打偏多但是整个打线的武器多到他们并不会碰到左投就整个熄火， 美东虽然有像是Lester / Price / Matusz 这些利害的左投但是除此之外洋基并不会常常 碰到。 : 2. Will home runs continue to fly out of Yankee Stadium? 洋基球场会继续是个全垒打天堂吗? : The early part of 2009 saw a tremendous number of home runs at the brand-new : Yankee Stadium. The first months of the season saw many complain about the : number of balls reaching the seats, with Peter Gammons going so far as to : call it "one of the biggest jokes in baseball." Many people began to blame : the weather patterns of the new stadium. The story was big enough news to get : weather provider AccuWeather in on the discussion. 去年开季时在新的洋基球场一堆球飞出场外，第一个月就出现很多人抱怨怎麽这麽多球 是全垒打。Peter Gammons 甚至说这个球场是个笑话。 很多人开始怪球场内的风流， 甚至连accuweather 的人都跑出来加入讨论。 : The conclusion? It was more likely the fences rather than any wind tunnels : causing the home run explosion in right field. But still questions linger. : As Yankees blog River Ave. Blues explains, however, the new Yankee Stadium : was actually a mild pitchers' park in 2009. While there were a lot of home : runs hit, offense in general was reduced. So the "biggest joke" turned out to : be missing most of the punchline. 结论? 大概还是全垒打墙太近太矮而不是风流的问题。 但是River ave Blues 这个blog 发现区年洋基球场根本是个略偏投手的球场。 虽然很多全垒打但是整体的得分反而略降。 所以这个大笑话看来言之过早。 : And what's more, Greg Rybarczyk of HitTracker found in The Hardball Times : Baseball Annual 2010 that Yankees pitchers managed to reduce the number of : fly balls opposing batters hit to right field as the season progressed. : So 2010 may see a number of balls flying into the right field seats, but if : 2009 is any indication, there will be a lot more from Yankees hitters than : from visiting players. Hittracker 的 Rybarczyk 在hardballtimes 2010 中也指出洋基的投手在季中逐渐的能 让对手减少打到右外野的飞球。 所以2010 大概还是会看到不少全垒打但是如果2009的数 子可靠的话那恐怕洋基球员打出去的会比对手多不少。 : 3. Will Jesus Montero ever don the pinstripes? 3. Jesus Montero 会穿上条纹圣衣吗? : For those of you who aren't aware, Jesus Montero is the best position player : prospect the Yankees have had in a long time—probably since Derek Jeter. : Well, that's not entirely true, since Montero is somewhat of a man without a : position. 如果你还没听说， Montero 是洋基自Jeter以来最好的野手新秀。 但是问题是他是个没 有守备位子的人。 : Nominally, he's a catcher—which makes him the best hitting catching prospect : since Mike Piazza. The problem is that he may be worse behind the plate than : Piazza was. And Piazza appeared to be pretty close to the line of "as bad as : possible but still allowed to catch." So even though the Yankees would seem : to have a need for a young catcher with Jorge Posada getting up there in age, : Montero's future remains cloudy. 理论上他是个捕手，可以说是Mike Piazza 以来最恐怖的打击捕手新秀，但问题是他的守 备可能比Piazza 更烂， 而Piazza 已经非常接近球队能容忍的最烂限度了。 所以即使 洋基明显得快要需要新的捕手，Montero 能不能接手还是个问号。 : Most analysts believe he will shed the tools of ignorance before too much : longer—most likely moving to first base or designated hitter. But the : Yankees have Teixeira locked up long term at first and, with an aging roster, : will likely want the flexibility to rotate players through the DH spot. 大多人认为他恐怕一定得转1B or DH, 但是洋基已经锁死Teixeira 很久而他们需要轮打 DH的人也很多。 : General Manager Brian Cashman is less certain that Montero will need to move : ---although Cashman acknowledges the possibility. In an interview with : NoMaas.org, he explained: "Whether he stays behind the plate, is a first : baseman, a rightfielder, a DH—that remains to be seen. But he's got one of : the best throwing arms in the minors, he's got some of the best blocking … : he's just so big, mechanically he takes a lot longer in his release." GM 现金人没那麽确定，虽然他也承认有这个可能性。 在跟Nomaas 的访问中他说到 "我们还不确定他会是C /1B / RF /DH , 但是他的臂力很好而他挡球也很好，只是他太 大支起身的时後会比较久。" : Everyone agrees Montero's bat will carry him to the majors in the next few : seasons, which is why he's a consensus top-five prospect despite the : defensive questions. Will he get a chance with the Yankees? That remains to : be seen. If Montero's not able to stay behind the plate (and he's got : competition from Austin Romine in the catcher-of-the-future battle), it seems : unlikely that he'll find a spot on the Yankees unless he can make the move to : the outfield. While no one has released a timetable for a decision, one needs : to be made in the next year or so, since Montero's bat is nearly ready for : the majors. He'll spend this season in Triple-A Scranton, where hopefully a : final determination of his position can be made. Otherwise, Yankees fans can : probably look forward to seeing Montero smash home runs for another team in : 2011 and beyond. 大家都同意他的棒子很快就会带他上大联盟，这也是为何级使守备有问题他还是公认的 五大新秀。 但是他会有机会跟洋基吗? 这还不确定，内部还有Romine 跟他竞争，似乎 除非他变成外野手才能卡到位子。 如果今年不能搞定他的守备位子的话洋基球迷恐怕 得看他帮其他球队打球了。 : 4. Is this finally the year the Yankees have to stand pat? 今年是洋基不动的一年吗? : In a question somewhat relevant to Jesus Montero, will the Yankees be able to : pull of a midseason deal if the situation warrants it? The team's forays into : free agency and the trade market over the past few seasons have severely : depleted both the available budget and the available pool of minor league : talent to deal. 这跟上个问题有点关联，洋基今年季中能交易吗? 他们过去两年的FA跟交易让他们的薪资 跟筹码都卡的很紧。 : Cot's has the 2010 Opening Day payroll at a shade under $210 million. With a : payroll that high, there are signs the team is feeling something of a budget : crunch. Many believe the recent release of Chad Gaudin was to save roughly a : million dollars. Couple the current obligations with the upcoming free agency : for legends Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera (plus Andy Pettitte and Javier : Vazquez) and you can understand why the team might be unwilling to take on : any additional salary. COTs 统计球队的开季薪资大约在 两亿一千万美金， 这阵子球队有出现一些已经到达 薪资极限的徵兆，例如最近释出Chad Gaudin 恐怕就是为了省钱。 在考虑到即将成为 FA 的 Jeter / Rivera (更别说Pettite / Vazquez ) 就不难理解他们的困难。 : But suppose the Mariners fall out of the race early and are willing to deal : Cliff Lee. Suppose also that the Steinbrenners agree to pay the remainder of : the $9 million owed to him. Do the Yankees have enough firepower to make that : deal? 但假设水手掉出竞争行列而想要交易Ciff Lee, 老板也愿意出钱，洋基还有足够的筹码吗? : The answer depends on the balance of tactical and strategic thinking in the : front office. Clearly Lee would improve the Yankees' chances to win the World : Series in 2010. But he would also cost a fair amount in terms of young : players. Recent trade deadline deals for expiring contracts haven't gotten : quite the return that previous ones have, but we'd have to assume that the : Mariners would ask for Montero and either Phillip Hughes or Joba Chamberlain : in the deal. Maybe Jack Zduriencik would settle for less, but assume the cost : would be substantial. 这个问题当然有很多变数，Lee 会让洋基更好，但是也会要很多潜力球员，近年来类似的 交易往往没有换到那麽大的包裹但是我们得假设水手会要Montero + Joba or Hughes. 即使降价也不会降太多。 : The farm system has a lot of interesting arms and some recent draftees at the : low levels, but the upper levels are fairly bare beyond Montero, Romine, Mark : Melancon and Zach McAllister. Trading three of your top prospects in one : offseason will do that to you—although the system wasn't necessarily that : strong even before the trades. 农场有一些有趣的投手跟刚选上的球员，但是在上层中除了Montero / Romine / Melancon /McAllister 外几乎就没了。 一个冬天换掉三个大新秀会有这个问题，而且在那之前 就没多好了。 : With an aging core at the major league level, and limited financial : flexibility, retaining a set of youngsters who can contribute might be more : important now than it has been in many years for the Yankees. That tune has : been sung before, but it seems to ring more true this time. : While it's surely possible that Cashman will pull another Bobby Abreu trade : out of his back pocket, the more likely scenario has the Yankees dancing with : the players that brought team. And that might not be such a bad thing in : either the short term or the long term. 大联盟的核心球员逐渐老去，资金也卡的很紧，不换年轻人对现在的洋基来说恐怕比以前 更重要。 过去几年就已经开始这样宣称了，而且越来越像是事实。 当然现金人可能又会 变出像是Abreu 那样的神奇交易，但更可能的状控就是他们用现有的选手来打这场牌。 : 5. Can the Yankees repeat as World Series champions? 5. 洋基能连霸吗? : The Yankees are certainly in a good position to make the playoffs. Using : DiamondMind and the five major projection systems, the Replacement Level : Yankees Blog developed team level projections for the 2010 season. The : Yankees had the best projected record in the majors—averaging 96 wins. The : team won the division 41 percent of the time, and the Wild Card an additional : 22 percent of the time. 根据五大预测系统的总和，洋基平均是大联盟最佳的96胜，而41% 的机率可以夺下分区。 22% 的机率夺下外卡。 : That said, there are definitely things that could go wrong and keep the team : out of the postseason. The AL East looks to be the toughest division in the : American League this season. The Rays, Red Sox and Yankees all have : reasonable claims to be the top team in the league, and only two of them can : advance. It wouldn't take much for the Yankees to end up as the odd man out : in that race. If any of the big five (Alex Rodriguez, Jeter, Teixeira, Posada : or Sabathia) go down for an extended period of time, the team could see : itself fall behind Boston and Tampa Bay. Of course the same statement is true : for any team with title aspirations, but the Yankees' age means there's : likely a greater chance of occurrence. 但是当然还是有可能会出问题，而且美东看起来会是个火药库，洋基，光芒，红袜看起来 都是一流强队，而顶多只能两队晋级。 洋基抽到签王的机会还是不小的，只要他们的五大 选手(A-rod / Jeter / Teixeria / Posada /Sabathia) 受伤够久他们就可能会落败，当 然这个风险每一队都有。 但洋基的年龄会让这风险更大一些。 : If New York can successfully navigate the treacherous AL East and reach the : playoffs, the team will be positioned quite well for success. A rotation of : Sabathia, Vazquez, Burnett and either Pettitte or Hughes stacks up well with : any team. It's impossible to predict the playoffs, but it's fair to say the : Yankees would have at least a 12.5 percent chance of winning the : championship. And on Opening Day, that's about all you can hope for. 如果洋基晋级，他们的机会不错，Sabathia / Vazquez / Burnett / Petttite / Hughes 的轮值不论跟谁比都不错。 季後赛很难预测但是可以说洋基至少会有那 1/8 的机会。 在开季当天这已经是你的最大奢求了。 -- My blog: http://yankeewave.blogspot.com Following the New York Yankees and baseball 2010 New York Yankees : reunion tour --

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