Nice work！ 不过有几句话没有翻出来，提出一些个人意见。 ※ 引述《outlaw (outlaw)》之铭言： : As a result, the Reds had their ninth consecutive losing season. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : Can they avoid a 10th? It probably all comes down to a few key players. : 09球季的红人队修正了长期以来在防守端的糟糕表现， : 不幸的是伴随着防守端成长的却是在打击表现方面的不尽人意, : 也使得红人连续第九季无法进入季後赛. Justin 的原文比这个还严重，他是指连续九年败多於胜， 而不单单仅是无法进入季後赛。 : 他们能够避免此难堪纪录迈向双位数吗？关键将取决於以下几位球员 : Jay Bruce: Barry Bonds, or Wily Mo Pena? : According to Baseball Reference, Jay Bruce's most similar batters through age ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : 22 are Barry Bonds and Wily Mo Pena, both with a score of 965. In the case of : Bonds, even before the PEDs, we have one of the greatest players ever to play ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : the game. With Pena, we have a player who showed excellent power, but never ~~~~~~~~~ : solved his problems with contact and low walk rates. Which will Bruce be? : 根据BP的统计分析，Jay Bruce至22岁的成长曲线有望长成下一个BB爷或是.... ~~ 这应该您的是笔误，因为Justin写的是 BR 而非 BP : Willy Mo Pena : 前者在禁药风波前或许是我们在棒球场上所拥有的最佳球员， 这句话的语意不太对，Justin是指「即使在使用禁药之前，Bonds依然是场上曾出现 过的最伟大球员之一。」 : Pena则曾经展现出优秀的长打能力，却从未解决过其无法挥中球及低落的保送率等问题， : 那麽未来的周董呢？ : Last year, he looked more like Wily Mo. He slugged 22 homers in 387 plate : appearances, but hit just .223/.303/.470. Many will point to his low BABIP : last year (.221) and say it was all due to bad luck. I'm not so sure. The : biggest concern I have is that his line drive rate was also miserably low ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : last year (13 percent, down from 21 percent in 2009). While line drives may : be a subjective measure, they are also a stable statistic for hitters. My : worry is that it's part of a failure to wait for good pitches; only 46 : percent of Bruce's pitches were in the strike zone last year, down from 48 : percent the year before (the major league average is 51 percent). : 上个球季,尽管在387个打席中夯了22只全垒打，但.223/.303/.470的打击三围则让 : Jay Bruce的发展显得Willy Mo Pena化， : 大多数分析将其归因於低到不行的BABIP(.221)以及坏运气 : 但我对其的最大质疑则来自Bruce在击出飞球比率上的衰退(21%->13%)，这让我担心 平飞球比率（LD%） : Jay在设定好球带的攻击上是否出了问题 : (前年为48%,去年降为46%,大联盟打者的平均则是51%) 这段的文意应该是：「去年，他看起来比较像 Pena，尽管他在387个打席敲了22支全 垒打，但打击三围仅有.223/.303/.470。很多人会说以Bruce去年过低的BABIP观之， 去年的糟糕表现应该是坏运气太糟。可是我对於这种说法并不买单。我最大的担忧在 於 Bruce去年击出平飞球的比率也是吓人地低。虽然平飞球是一个比较主观的评估标 准，不过对打者来说也是一个稳定的数据。我的担心在於过低的平飞球比率部分代表 了 Bruce 无法等待对进到好球带的球进行攻击：Bruce所面对的投球进到好球带的比 率从08年的48%降到46%。」 : On the other hand, there are lots of positive signs that make me want to : drink the Jay Bruce Kool-Aid. Bruce's O-Swing percentage improved by four : points last year, indicating that his ability to lay off pitches out of the : zone has improved. His strikeout rate was down, and his walk rate was up. His : ISO was up 50 points to .246. His fielding seemed improved, receiving strong : marks from both the Fans and objective measures like UZR. And, while his ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : monstrous production upon his return from injury in September (.326/.426/.652 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : in 54 PAs) is probably irrelevant due to the sample size, he talked a lot ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : upon returning about using the time to clear his head after a truly miserable ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : June and July in which he wOBA'd less than .300. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : 另一方面,我们仍有足够的正面数据来继续对Jay Bruce的未来发展有所期待(注1) : 1.O-Swing率在09球季提升了四个百分点 : 2.三振率下降及被保送率增加 : 3.ISO在上个球季提升到.246 防守上的改善亦可从UZR等防守数据上清楚显现 : 当然Jay Bruce去年九月伤癒归队後,在小样本内的惊人表现(.323/.426/.652 in 54 PAs) : 亦让人对其手术的成功及摆脱六、七月的低潮带来信心 这句话的语义有点问题，原文应该是说：「尽管Bruce伤癒归队後的惊人表现有可能仅是 因小样本的结果，不过他也多次提到他如何在受伤的这段期间如何让自己从六、七月的 严重低潮中走出来。」 : Bruce, a former No. 1 overall prospect, has all the talent in the world. But : if the Reds are going to contend, they're going to have to score runs far : more often than they did last year. While the supporting cast is important, : there is no bigger key to the Reds' 2010 chances than the not-yet-23-year-old : Jay Bruce. : Here's what the projections say: : Oliver: .257/.315/.469 : CHONE: .286/.351/.539—wow, massive difference! : ZiPS: .251/.315/.459 : CHONE is the current "heavyweight" among projection systems. But when it : departs so severely from Oliver and ZiPS ... well ... I'll just say that I : hope it's right. : Jay Bruce，这位拥有所有棒球天赋的23岁前顶级新秀,将是红人队想要在新的球季中得到 : 更多分数并摆脱上季贫打囧境的主要依靠 : 关於Jay Bruce这季的预测成绩: : Oliver: .257/.315/.469 : CHONE: .286/.351/.539—(FB记得选,谢谢) : ZiPS: .251/.315/.459 : Can Drew Stubbs hit major league pitching? : Last year, the Reds gave 95 starts in center field, 81 batting leadoff, to : Willy Taveras. He responded by hitting the brilliantly innocuous line of : .240/.275/.285, and posting an "MLB leading" mark of -25 wRAA. This year's : apparent starter, former No. 1 draft pick Drew Stubbs, is a brilliant ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : fielder, and seems a good bet to top Taveras' performance this year (in the ~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : good way). The question is by how much. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : 上季红人队给予W.Taveras在中外野95场的先发以及81场的首棒角色， : Taveras则以.240/.275/.285的完美成绩来诠释腿哥真谛， : 并成功夺得全大联盟最败家-25 WAA : 今年相同角色将由Drew Stubbs这位才华洋逸前首轮新秀担任， ~~~~~~~~Justin是指他优异的防守 （Stubbs一般被认为有拿金手套外野的潜力） : 目前看来Stubbs在缴出与Taveras辉煌时期相同的表现这点上是个不错赌注(好的方面) : 问题这在於Stubbs成功的机率有多少? 这句话就不太对了。意思应该是：「Stubbs有极大的可能会优於Taveras去年的表现， 只是可以提升到什麽程度？」 : The story you'll hear on Stubbs is that he has tremendous athletic tools, but : that he has had to shorten his swing so much to cope with severe contact : problems that his power is largely unusable in games. Perhaps for this : reason, he has rarely shown consistent power in the minors (28 homers in : 1,800-plus PAs, and five homers in 556 PAs at Triple-A). So I'm very : skeptical of what he did in his last-season call-up, which was to put on a : serious power display: eight home runs in just under 200 PAs. : 每当谈论Drew Stubbs，惊人的运动能力虽然是其注册商标， : 但他必须学着缩短挥棒轨迹以克服其在打击上的问题， 为了解决contact的问题，Stubbs必须修短他的挥棒轨迹，这使得他的power严重衰退。 或许就是这个原因，他在小联盟时期并无法持续缴出长打表现。 : 相较於上一季在短短不到200打席内所挥出的8只全垒打， : 我想在今年球季中偶尔展现昙花一现的长打火力或许才是真正的Stubbs : (小联盟超过1800 PAs仅有28只全垒打,在3A的556 PAs则一共只有五轰) : So what should we expect from Stubbs? In the minors, his primary offensive : contribution came from patience at the plate: he walked in at least 11 : percent of his PAs each year in the minor leagues. While he strikes out ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : enough that he may not be able to carry a high average, he may be able to ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : walk enough to carry a decent OBP. And that would make him a nice asset, ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : because manager Dusty Baker has to hit his center fielder in the leadoff slot ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : in virtually every game. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : Here are what the projections think of Stubbs: : Oliver: .225/.295/.326 : CHONE: .251/.328/.380 : ZiPS: .235/.305/.348 : Yikes. Let's hope he surprises. : 那麽我们究竟该如何看待Stubbs?在小联盟，他的主要攻击贡献来自於打击区上的耐心 : 过往每一季均有超过11%的被保送率，但高三振率亦使得Stubbs难以拥有高打击率 : 因此Stubbs必须倚靠足够的选球来掩护其上垒率， : 而这也是传说中的那个人将中外野及第一棒交给Stubbs时所希望看到的 这段语意有点怪怪的，原文的意思是：「尽管因为三振率过高使得Stubbs无法拥有高打 击率，但他拿保送的功力可以让他维持可被接受的上垒率。这对球队来说会是个不错的 资产，因为 Baker 总是喜欢让他的中外野手担任开路先锋。」 : 关於Stubbs的成绩预测: : Oliver: .225/.295/.326 : CHONE: .251/.328/.380 : ZiPS: .235/.305/.348 : 好吧...让我们期待奇蹟... : Balentien was acquired last year in a small trade and is out of options, so : he seems likely to make the team as a reserve power bat off the bench who can : play all of the outfield positions (though you can question how well he can : handle center). When factoring in offense and defense, I'd rather have : Balentien than Gomes. But given that Balentien seems likely to make the team, : top prospects Frazier and Heisey seem to be facing a numbers game problem to : finding a spot on the roster ... although Frazier's versatility could land : him a spot filling in for an injury someone in the infield as the season : progresses. : Balentien是红人队从去年的小型交易中所得到，由於他已用完下放选择权， : 因此Balentien预期将会在开季扮演板凳代打以及外野超级工具人的角色 : (至於让他守中外野会变什麽样子...就请自行想像....) : 如果同时考量进攻与防守，我对Balentien的爱甚於Gomes， : 但重用Balentien同时也会让球队中Frazier and Heisey等年轻新秀们面临该如 Justin指的不是重用Balentien，而是指在Balentin几乎笃定成为Reds开季名单的一员 後，将会压缩到 Frazier与 Heisey加入25人名单中的机会。 : 何在球队中定位的问题， : 其中Frazier的多功能性将提供球队在赛季中遇到内野伤兵问题时能够有所应变调度 : From the left side of the plate, Dickerson almost certainly has the team : made, and is the favorite to win the left-handed side of the platoon (and : possibly could also steal some starts from Stubbs in center). Dickerson has : hit well this spring. But the Reds also seem to like the incomparably : free-swinging Juan "El Niño Destructor" Francisco. He has the most extreme : combination of low minor league walk rate (4 percent) and high strikeout rate : (23 percent) I've seen among players who eventually had any level of success : in the majors. But the guy has tremendous power. : 左打方面，春训表现良好的Dickerson几乎确定成为球队面对右投手时， : 在左外野的打者人选(也可能从中外野手Stubbs身上得到一些上场机会)。 : 不过红人队对於JuanFrancisco这位典型重炮手也相当喜爱， : 其在小联盟中有着极端的被保送率(4%)以及三振率(23%) : 我想他们开季後该争的是板凳而非先发球员的角色 : So, back to the main question: Will this team break the streak of losing : seasons? The math says no. But there's a lot of good, young talent here. They : could surprise. : 所以回到最初的问题，红人队今年有希望破茧而出吗？ : 想太多了，期待那些年轻有才能的选手多带来一点惊喜还比较实际 球队今年有办法中止连续九年败多於胜的纪录吗？数学告诉我们不行，但是Reds阵中有 很多充满天赋的新秀，这些人有可能会缴出让我们惊艳的表现。 --

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