http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-washington-nationals3/ 缩网址: http://ppt.cc/DW-F The bright side about being a Nats fan is that after this last year—from "Natinals" to the GM resigning in disgrace to, well, the terrible record— things have to be looking up. And with Stephen Strasburg looming, they almost certainly are. So that leads us to... 当个国民队的球迷的光明面，就是～在去年总教练狼狈下台、加上那惨到不行的 成绩後～什麽事情都只会更好！看看Strasburg的成长，好像真是这麽一回事呢！ 让我们来瞧瞧： 1. What's going to happen to Stephen Strasburg this season? Strasburg今年球季将有如何的表现？ The Nats have announced—rightly—that their phenom is going to begin the year in the minors. If you're a lucky fan of the Altoona Curve, you'll be able to catch his first minor league start on April 11. 国民队已经宣布要让这位耀眼的新星从小联盟出发，如果你很幸运的恰巧是 Altoona Curve的球迷，那你可以在4/11看到他小联盟的第一次先发。 Was sending him down the right decision? Almost certainly. Does it kind of stink for Nats' fans? Sort of. He was the team's best pitcher in the spring. He's clearly got the stuff to hang with major league batters. Despite that, there's a legitimate argument to be made that sending him down to work on a few things would be beneficial. 把Strasburg放在小联盟是正确的吗？几乎可以肯定是；球迷会不爽吗？大概吧～ 他是春训中表现最好的投手，也有足够的条件来面对大联盟的打者，然而除此之外， 放他下去有很合理的理由，也就是在某些方面将带来更大的好处。 But we all know it's the off-the-field stuff that's driving this. First, keeping him down a few weeks gives the team an extra year of control. It's far better to have a fully developed Strasburg in 2016 than a still-learning one toiling for a should-be last-place team in 2010. Second, it's about the money. While the contract that Strasburg signed reduces the temptation for the team to game the system a bit, keeping him down still means millions more saved in the future. As the Washington Post's Dave Sheinin lays out, keeping him down is the difference between three years of arbitration salaries or four. Translation: it could mean a minimum of $15 million for the Nats. 大家都知道，这并非球场上表现的问题。首先在小联盟多放几周可以让球团多控制 他一年。拥有2016年完全成熟的小史、或2010年用生涩的球技在极可能垫底的球队 中挣扎...这两者做比较，选择应该很明显吧！其次，就是钱的问题了 小史的合约中已经稍微避免了球团操弄制度的可能，不过在小联盟中多放几个礼拜 还是能为球团在未来省下几百万美金。Washington Post 的 Dave Sheinin 推算过， 这将是3或4年薪资仲裁的差异，这一年的差异至少代表1500万美金。 So Strasburg's not likely to make the majors until June, and Nats fans are getting excited, even the casual ones waiting around for the team to just do something interesting. In the end, Strasburg will likely get 15 or so starts in the majors. And if he's anything less than 15-0 with 165 strikeouts, it'll be a major disappointment. 所以6月前应该不会在大联盟的赛事中看到他，不过即便是那些等待球团振作等的 不耐烦的球迷，也都兴奋起来了。 Strasburg应该会在大联盟有15次的先发机会。搞到最後，如果没有拿到15-0的成 绩外加165次三振，球迷大概会失望吧～ 2. Is Ryan Zimmerman really a superstar? Zimmerman 真的是超级巨星吗？ Last year, you could've made an argument that Ryan Zimmerman was an MVP contender. Sure, he wasn't really Pujols, but without straining yourself, you could've made an argument that he was the next best player in the National League. The shorthand version of that argument: his Silver Slugger and Gold Glove. Few players in the game put up such great numbers at both facets of the game. 去年，你可能会认为Zimmerman是MVP的热门候选人。当然，他不是Pujols，不过若 你要认为他是国联仅次Pujols的打者，那也无伤大雅。简言之：银棒奖、金手套。 守备跟打击一样出色的选手，这的确很少。 Defensively, there probably aren't any third basemen with better instincts and range. The only knock on him defensively is his errors. When he has too much time, he tends to take an extra look at the ball, throwing off his timing: his footwork goes astray, and the ball whips past the first baseman for an error. If he could halve those throwing errors, he'd simply be the best. 守备方面，几乎可以说拥有最佳的守备范围跟反应能力，硬要挑缺点的话，大概是 失误吧。当传球时间充裕的时候，他可能会多看球一眼，有时候就扰乱了节奏，打 乱了脚步，偶尔会出现传过头的失误。如果能减少传球的失误，他毫无疑问就是最 棒的。 But it's the bat that took a huge step forward. And whenever that happens, everyone runs to BABIP to explain it. Not in this case. His .310 is right in line with his career numbers. What improved was his eye and his health. He bested his career high in walks by 11, and his overall rate crept up to 10.4 percent. We'll chalk that up to Adam Dunn's influence. But it's really his health that made the biggest difference. He was coming off seasons ruined by a frayed shoulder and a hamate bone removal. Both likely affected his swing, especially his power. With rest and rehab, he finally showed what he was capable of. Maybe expecting a pure repeat of last year's offensive performance isn't realistic. But even if he drops a few ticks in slugging, he's still among the most valuable players in the league. 打击方面则有惊人的进步，一般上人们喜欢用 BABIP 来解释，不过这不适用在他 身上。 .310的打击率与生涯水准差不多，真正造成进步的原因是视力跟健康。 保送次数比生涯平均还多了11次，整体而言，保送率也多了10.4个百分点，或许 可以归因於 Dunn 的影响吧。 不过说真的，健康才是进步的主要原因。更前一年他受困於肩膀的伤势跟钩骨移除 手术，这都会影响他的打击，特别是击球的力量。在休息跟复健後，我们可以说， 去年的表现才是真正 Zimmerman 的水准。 或许期望能复制去年的打击成绩有点不切实际，不过即使打击成绩掉了一些，仍然是 MVP的等级。 3. What does the bullpen look like? 今年的牛棚将会是...？ One of the reasons last year's Nats did so terribly compared to their Pythagorean record was their terrible bullpen. 用 Pythagorean record 来看得失分的比例，我们大概可以知道去年那令人崩溃 的成绩，其中一个原因就是因为有着令人崩溃的牛棚... After starting out 0-7, the Nats won one before starting a three-game series with the Marlins. Game one: Joel Hanrahan gives up a homer in the ninth that tied the game at two before Saul Rivera gave up an RBI single in the 10th in a 3-2 loss. Game two: Hanrahan gave up three runs in the ninth, including two on a Jeremy Hermida homer, (he later hit a three-run bomb) on the way to a 9-6 loss. Game three: Rivera, who had failed in the first game, tried for the one-run save, instead giving up an RBI double followed by a bases-clearing double in what turned into a 7-4 loss. Three games, three blown saves. That was a microcosm. But it wasn't quite rock bottom, because the Nats' pitchers kept finding new and interesting ways to lose. 开季壮烈的7连败後，总算在对上 Marlins 的三连战前止败，让我们瞧瞧这三场： Game 1: Hanrahan在第九局被击出追平比数全垒打，Saul Rivera 接着在第10局被 打出一分打点安打，最终3:2输球。 Game 2: Hanrahan在第九局又送出3分，包括Hermida的两分全垒打（他後来又干了 一支3分炮），9:6输球。 Game 3: 第一场BS的 Rivera ，在一分差的情况下上场。这次是先送上1分打点的 二垒安打，再送上一个清垒的二垒安打，最後7:4输球。 三场比赛通通砸锅，这就是整年度的缩影。不过这还不是最惨的呢，国民队的投手 群总是不断的找出新奇又有趣的方式输球，随时提供你想像不到的娱乐飨宴。 So the Nats kicked most of those stiffs out, and they're coming into 2010 with a bullpen led by Matt Capps, he of the 5.80 ERA and 4.90 FIP, Sean Burnett, he of the -0.1 WAR, and Brian Bruney, he of the career 6.22 BB/9. Cherry-picking, of course. But the larger point remains. These guys aren't very good. But even not very good is going to be better than last year. Even if you don't like ERA, especially in evaluating relievers, the 5.09 bullpen ERA or the 5.71 ERA in save situations paints a thorough enough picture. 可以想见的是这些家伙几乎都被扫地出门了，瞧瞧今年吧！Matt Capps，5.80 ERA 以及 4.90 FIP；Sean Burnett，有着WAR -0.1 的成绩；Brian Bruney，生涯平均 每九局投出6.22个保送。当然，这已经市场上的最佳选择了，问题还是一样，这些 人怎麽看都不太行阿～ 不过烂到极点也是有好处的，那就是很容易进步...不管你是如何的讨厌ERA这项数 据，如何的讨厌用ERA来评价後援投手，牛棚平均 ERA 5.09，或是领先时上场救援 那高达 5.71 的 ERA，这已经说明了一切... Along with a change in arms, a change in management might help here. Manny Acta never really seemed to grasp how to use the guys he had. Notably, on opening day last year, he brought Rivera in to face Ryan Howard, even with at least two lefties sitting in the pen. His explanation? Saul was his "seventh inning guy." A big homer later, and the game was over. While there wasn't much talent to mine from those arms, Acta consistently seemed to find ways to use the talent in the worst possible way. So while Capps, Bruney and Burnett aren't going to make anyone miss the Nasty Boys, there's hope for some marginal improvement here. 随着换上新鲜的手臂，换换教练的脑袋可能更有用。Manny Acta 好像从来都不知道 该怎麽用他的子弟兵。大家可能还记得，在开幕战的时候，即便还有两个左手牛，他 也硬是让 Rivera 去面对 Ryan Howard。对此，他的解释是 "左手的 Saul 是投第七 局的啦～" 结局就是目送着球飞出全垒打墙外，含恨输球。 这些牛棚新兵中，笔者认为都不是什麽好货色，不过让我们看看神奇的 Acta 还能想 出什麽新奇又恶搞的玩法吧。 Capps, Bruney 和 Burnett 应该都不会有什麽好表现，不过进步个一咪咪总是可以 期待吧？ 4. How loud will the clanks off Adam Dunn's glove be? Adam Dunn 的守备到底行不行？ The guy that everyone wants to be a DH has found a home at first base. 大家都想要他去当 DH ，不过他好像当一垒手当上瘾了。 We know he's not going to be a great first baseman, but everyone likes to point at his terrible UZR numbers (-25 per 150 games last year) to say he's the next Dick Stuart. Maybe he is. Maybe he isn't. But half a season's worth of UZR, even when combined with fractions of seasons before it aren't really enough to tell. Piecing together those partial seasons and drawing a conclusion from them makes no more sense than picking out a batter's statline in April and August and drawing conclusions from that. 我们都知道他不是个好的一垒手，大家喜欢批评他那糟糕的 UZR 守备数据 （在150 场比赛中多丢掉25分），还说他将是下一个 Dick Stuart，或许吧！不过只有半季， 即便把之前的场次也加进来，真要下什麽结论也还不够充分。把几个零星球季的数据 拼凑在一起然後下结论，这样跟光看打者四月跟八月的打击成绩有什麽两样呢？ Nats fans have seen some truly horrid first base defense, including a morbidly obese Dmitri Young and a short-armed Ronnie Belliard. Anyone who watched Dunn regularly at first didn't see someone as terrible as those guys. Dunn's not going to have great range, but he's a great target. With his size, if he can figure out the footwork around the bag, he'll cut down on bad throws, something that's not necessarily captured by UZR. I have zero belief that he'll be a good first baseman, but it's hard to believe that someone with his size and athleticism would be the absolute worst in the league. If he shows he's only costing the team five to 10 runs at first, he's a valuable player. 不过国民队的球迷应该真的觉得一垒的守备很抖，尤其是几乎病态肥胖的 Dmitri Young 及手短的Ronnie Belliard。而在 Dunn 守备的时候，至少球迷可以比上面那 两位安心多了。 Dunn 的守备范围不会再进步了，不过他的身体倒是不错的档球工具。看那巨大的身 躯，如果他能在想想怎麽档球，搞不好一些误传的球都能档下，这可是UZR看不出来 的呢！当然，我一点都不相信他会是好的一垒手，不过以他的体型跟运动能力，要说 他是全联盟最糟的，这怎麽想都不太可能。 如果他能证明他站一垒最多只会让球队多失去5~10分，那 Dunn 就很有价值了。 5. How important is a good showing this season? 打出亮眼的一季有多重要呢？ With everything that's gone on to this team—much of it self-inflicted—the answer is "very." Nobody's expecting a pennant winner, or even really a .500 team. But they absolutely cannot afford to have another 100-loss team. There are plenty of casual baseball fans who just want to cheer for a decent team, but they've had absolutely nothing to root for, at least since September '05. 看看这个球队过去的一切（大部分还都是自找的），答案是：非常重要！没有人真的 期望一个冠军戒指、或胜率五成的队伍，不过也没有人能忍受再来一次100败！有很多 游离的球迷，他们只是希望有个还不赖的队伍让他们加油呐喊一下，不过在国民队的 身上还真找不到一丝丝支持的理由，至少在05年9月之後。 The Washington Capitals are Cup contenders. The Washington Redskins are always the dominant force in town, and after a few years of futility, they finally have adults in place making football decisions. There's a lot of competition for the sports dollar and rooting time. And so far, the Nats have given no reason for most people to care. Washington Capitals是史坦利盃的夺冠热门队伍，Washington Redskins也是美式 足球的劲旅，在几年的挣扎後也算有点成绩。在各种运动中，彼此也要竞争收入以 及球迷的心，不过到目前为止，国民队还真找不出什麽理由让大家多看一眼。 75 wins isn't going to make anyone stand and cheer. But it would be a step forward. They could go into the off-season, talking about the 15-win improvement they had. They could point to Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, John Lannan, Drew Storen and Jordan Zimmermann as the core of a potential championship contender -- and do such without really stretching the truth. 或许75胜不是个让人欢欣鼓舞的数字，不过总算是个开端，或许能进到季後赛，回味 一下多出来的15胜，把 Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg,John Lannan, Drew Storen and Jordan Zimmermann当成夺冠的核心阵容，而且这样的幻想并没有离开现 实太多！ Fans need to be convinced that the team is building towards something, not just with the words the team utters (which have typically been hollow), but with their actions and results. So while some mocked the team for signing a pitcher like Jason Marquis, they're missing the point. He's not here to bring a championship to DC, he's here to bring stability to the team -- to keep the bottom from dropping out as it's done the last few seasons. He's here to stabilize, help younger pitchers develop (if only through absorbing a workload), and to keep the team in games. Hypothetically there's no difference between 62 wins and 75, but that couldn't be further from the truth in DC. 球迷渴望相信球队正在成长茁壮，而非只是听听空洞的宣示。所以在签下Jason Marquis後球迷们不以为然甚至嘲笑，然而这些球迷却尚未理解到重点。他不是来 带领球队迈向冠军的，顶多就是稳定的吃些局数，避免像过去一样早早就提前出局。 他只能算是个稳定力量，协助年轻的球员成长（除了工作量以外别乱教阿！）， 让投手轮值不至於崩溃。 假设我们认为62胜跟75胜没什麽差别，但对DC的球迷来说，这可是有大大的差别！ --

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