原文连结: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-san-diego-padres3/ by Geoff Young March 24, 2010 Petco Park has lost its new park smell, the Padres have lost many games, and many fans have lost that loving feeling. There is a lot of work to be done in San Diego, and overwhelming success isn't likely to occur in 2010. Fortunately, between the new ownership group and some exciting young talent, the Padres appear to be on the right track...even if it's a slow and sometimes bumpy track. 去年Petco Park输掉了他的新球场味 教士队输掉了很多比赛 球迷们也输掉了对教士的爱 这地方需要很多改进 然而大跃进在今年眼看是莫可能 幸好新东家跟球队新血让这条改进之路看来没有脱轨 再颠簸 再漫长也应该能走到终点 How will Chase Headley respond now that he's back at third base? Chase Headley拿回了先发三垒後能表现如何? Miscast as a left fielder, the former top prospect finally gets the chance to play every day at his natural position. By Headley's own admission, he was never going to be anything more than an average outfielder. With the trade of Kevin Kouzmanoff to Oakland, Headley returns to the hot corner, where the hope is that with less to worry about defensively, he can focus more on his hitting and become a force in the lineup. 将Kevin Kouzmanoff换去运动家之後 前顶尖作物终於能回到他本命的三垒 Headley本人也承认 他只可能是个平庸的左外 从左外回到三垒热区 守备压力减轻後Headley应该能为打线注入一股原力 (不用分心守备的战神Headley表示:谁能挡住我的棒子?) Headley's first two full seasons in the big leagues have been solid, but nothing special. His list of comparable players includes such luminaries as Greg Briley, Leon Culbertson, Leon Roberts, and Willard Marshall. Part of the problem is that Petco Park destroys Headley's game (.218/.305/.355 in 455 PA, vs .301/.368/.437 in 546 PA on the road). Moving from left field to third base won't change that, but now he can spend less time thinking about how to avoid bumping into moving objects in the outfield and more time figuring out ways to produce at home. 战神黑力的头两个完整球季稳定但不亮眼 别忘了他被期待长成 Greg Briley, Leon Culbertson, Leon Roberts, and Willard Marshall等级的高手 Petco是个痛苦的所在 黑力在客场表现大大压过主场 (.218/.305/.355 in 455 PA vs .301/.368/.437 in 546 PA on the road) 即使换守位Petco还是令人同样痛苦 但不用防撞的内野能让黑力专注在为球队增加建设性 The sample is tiny, but so far, Headley has hit a little better when playing third base (.257/.348/.419 in 158 PA) than when playing left field (.261/.331/.387 in 812 PA). I would love to point to some study showing that players who shift positions magically transform into better hitters, but as far as I know, that issue remains one of baseball's Hilbert problems. In what promises to be a recurring theme, the Padres and their fans will have to settle for hope. 黑力在三垒的小样本三围也许只小胜左外 (.257/.348/.419 in 158 PA vs.261/ .331/.387 in 812 PA) 但别忘了有研究指出换守位有MAGIC~~~一般的神效 虽然这样的神效就等於是棒球界的黎曼猜想一样可能永远无法证明 但他都稳占三垒了 教士及球迷们只能乖乖期待神蹟~ How good can Mat Latos be, and when will it happen? Mat Latos能有多好? 我们得等他多久? He could be very, very good. It could happen tomorrow. It could never happen. All of these statements are true, if somewhat less than helpful. On a more practical level, Latos has upside that the Padres haven't seen in a young pitcher since Jake Peavy first arrived. Latos works with a mid-90s fastball and two advanced breaking balls. He is able to locate his pitches and has a clue. Latos also is young and inexperienced. His attitude has been questioned at times, but the same can be said of many people in all walks of life who are young and inexperienced. 他可以好到冒泡 也许明天爆发 又或者永远沉睡 这是废话但也是实话 实际点说 Latos是J. 皮维之後第一个这等级的强投 95迈上下的火球,两种高级的变化球和相当程度的控球让他至少知道自己在干麻 Latos很年轻 没经验 态度也欠佳 但每个成名强投也都这样过 Having pitched fewer than 200 professional innings before reaching the big leagues, Latos remains a work-in-progress. Because he has options remaining and some other pitchers who need to be evaluated (Sean Gallagher, Tim Stauffer) do not, Latos could start the season at Triple-A Portland to buy himself and the Padres a little time. 上MLB之前只在职业联盟投不到200局 Latos绝对还能长 由於他还有足够升降机会 从3A出发能让他好好长大 也顺便让没得升降的Sean Gallagher, Tim Stauffer努力看看 Wherever Latos starts the year, unless something goes horribly wrong, he figures to end it in San Diego. He also figures to be a key member of the next competitive Padres team. His stuff is top-shelf, but as Jeremy Bonderman (and perhaps Rick Porcello) has shown us, making the transition from the low minors to MLB isn't always easy. 除非见鬼了 从哪出发不该影响Latos在球季结束前站稳轮值 他的天份绝对是屋上提琴手的等级 但看看Jeremy Bonderman 跟 (也许)Rick Porcello的前车之监 我们也不要抱太大希望 从Low A直升MLB没那麽简单低 In his favor, Latos has posted terrific peripheral numbers (10.5 K/9, 4.6 K/BB) down on the farm. On the other hand, that's in the past and he needs to show what he can do at the highest level on a consistent basis. My suspicion is that he will succeed, but it's easy to be optimistic about things that haven't happened yet. 以10.5的K/9 跟 4.6的K/BB看来 Latos是个顶尖高手 但这已经过去了 现在的他必须在更高层级的殿堂证明自己连续屠杀的能力 虽然担心他会不会成功 但还没发生的事情总是让人抱持希望 Can Randy Ready survive the season as hitting coach? Randy Ready会不会成为打教坟场的悻存者? Like morning fog and wagonloads of 'Zonies, firing the hitting coach is an annual rite of summer in San Diego. But are coaches really to blame for the Padres' offensive woes since moving into Petco Park before the 2004 season? Well, in that time, the team has had one park and five hitting coaches, so you tell me which is the constant: 如同朝雾和一车车的'Zonies一样 火打教已成为教士的夏季盛事 (译按:Zonie指每年跑到SD海边冲浪的Arizona人 SD人非常讨厌他们 出没季节只在夏天) 但打教们真的是教士打线问题的重点吗? 换到Petco之後这支球队用过5个打教 让我们瞧瞧04年以来这球场对这些教练做了什麽: * Dave Magadan: 2003 - June 15, 2006 * Merv Rettenmund: June 16, 2006 - July 31, 2007 * Wally Joyner (he resigned, but still): August 1, 2007 - September 22, 2008 * Jim Lefebvre: November 3, 2008 - July 31, 2009 * Randy Ready: August 1, 2009 - ?? Here's how the Padres have performed under each of these men: 以下则是每个打教手下球员的成绩 Overall | Home | Road BA OBP SLG | BA OBP SLG | BA OBP SLG Magadan* .263 .335 .401 | .251 .326 .376 | .275 .344 .424 Rettenmund .256 .325 .410 | .242 .315 .388 | .267 .333 .429 Joyner .254 .323 .407 | .242 .319 .380 | .265 .328 .432 Lefebvre .235 .311 .375 | .213 .306 .340 | .254 .316 .407 Ready .257 .338 .391 | .228 .324 .346 | .282 .350 .431 *Petco Park years only Magadan只看Petco时代 Granted, there are varying sample sizes, but it can't be comforting to realize that each individual charged with getting Padres hitters to produce in their home ballpark has done a worse job than his predecessor. In retrospect, axing Magadan may not have been such a great idea (word is, he's since experienced a little success in Boston, which by some strange coincidence has a park that is conducive to offense). But what's done is done, and now the Padres have Ready, who benefits from the fact that presumably there isn't much further to fall. He also gets to work with Kyle Blanks, whose power plays anywhere and who figures to make any hitting coach look good. As for whether Ready can last an entire season, that depends on a number of factors. Actually, it depends on one factor. At some point, the Padres must accept that Petco Park, where they play half their games every year, suppresses offense something fierce. I have no doubt that on a certain level, they are very much aware of this. At the same time, when different coaches continue to yield similar results, perhaps it's time to look elsewhere for answers. Superior on-field talent is a good place to start. 尽管样本数不一样多 但看这样的数据实在令人不舒服 每个新打教都让打线在主场表现得越来越烂 现在看来砍掉Magadan不是个好主意 (他曾在Boston表现还行 但那很巧的是个打者天堂) 既然木已成舟 这条打线也不能更烂了 就让我们期待Ready的表现吧 他至少拥有Kyle Blanks的强大炮瓦能让数据像样一点 总之Ready能不能撑过夏天还是得看几个因素 事实上只有一个 (译按:大概是看输几场吧) 教士们得在打者坟场的Petco打81场这是必须面对的现实 我确定球团在某程度上知道这状况 当打教们表现都一样烂时 他们也许该换个方式试试 选秀选野手(译按:也就是指打击)会是个不错的开始 Which of the young players is likely to emerge this year? 今年哪个年轻肉体能冒出头? Blanks and Latos are the obvious choices. Although they are the best long-term bets, each comes with risk. Blanks is playing out of position and battled injury problems toward the end of his rookie season. Latos has very little professional experience under his belt. Blanks跟Latos明显有机会 长期来说他们是好投资但也各有风险 Blanks在新人年不固定的守位跟伤病挣扎是个风险 Latos则是没有足够的职业投球经验 Everth Cabrera? You know what I think about him, but this is a kid who skipped three levels last year. He's got a lot of talent, but also a lot to learn. Who knows when he'll put it all together? Everth Cabrera? 你知道我怎麽想他的 (译按:作者大概不看好他吧) 但这小子去年跳了三级 (译按:从A到MLB!!) 无疑地很有天份但也还有得长 谁知道哪时候他才能长成? The guys I'm looking at to emerge in 2010 are Headley and Will Venable. We've already discussed the former. As for Venable, because he's already 27 years old and still not established at the big-league level, he often gets overlooked or dismissed. For example, our own THT Forecasts put him at .241/.298/.379 this year. I think he'll beat that OPS by 100 points if he gets regular playing time (which he should). 我认为一定会跳出的是黑力跟Will Venable 黑力前面讲过了 而Venable27岁却还没能站稳MLB 让大家都忘了他的存在 我们家THT Forecasts预测今年他只能打出.241/.298/.379 但我觉得他的OPS一定能狂电预测值100分 前提是教练不脑残 有给他稳定出场机会 Venable won't be a star, but he is a gifted athlete (he was a standout basketball player at Princeton, which helps explain his late development) who has usable baseball skills and he's ready now. Former Padres Vice President of Scouting and Player Development Grady Fuson is quoted as saying he thought Venable would be a better big leaguer than minor leaguer, and I'm inclined to agree. Venable不会是个明星 但他是个有天份的运动员且具备有用的棒球技术 现在准备好了 (大学时的他在普林斯顿是个杰出的篮球选手 这也解释了他的棒球生涯的慢熟) 前教士球探部副总裁Grady Fuson曾说Venable会在MLB表现超出小联盟的自己 我现在倾向同意他的说法 What are the new owners doing? Will they increase payroll at some point, and can they restore fan interest in San Diego? 新东家在干麻? 他们会不会提高薪资呢? 他们能不能找回球迷的爱? The new owners have made a concerted effort to win fans back by reaching out to them in ways that previous ownership seldom did. For all that John Moores accomplished while running the Padres (World Series in '98, Petco Park), he had become decreasingly visible in recent years. This aloofness did not sit well with San Diegans, who wanted a more active owner that at least gave the impression of caring about his ballclub. Add in a messy divorce, and voila: ugly situation. 新东家做了老东家没做过的试图赢回球迷的爱:向球迷们贴近 前老板John Moores拿到98年世界冠军门票跟弄了Petco後就基本上消失了 这个不在乎的态度让SD人不太开心 何况他後来还搞了个惨烈的离婚与糗毙了的财务状况 Jeff Moorad and President and COO Tom Garfinkel have come in and expressed a commitment to the organization, the fans, and the city. They have made themselves available to the people and demonstrated a willingness to listen and improve where possible. Jeff Moorad and President and COO Tom Garfinkel (译按:大概是新老板跟经营者吧?) 出现并展现出诚意 至少他们愿意听取球迷心声 且试着让球队进步 The previous regime had trouble with that aspect of the job. Sandy Alderson, as brilliant a baseball mind as you'll find, showed little patience for details that didn't affect the bottom line. He and his group succeeded in many areas, but never really connected with a fan base that sought a kinder, gentler leader. San Diegans wanted to be addressed as equals in a partnership, not as subjects of an oligarchy. That was not the style of Moores and Alderson, and one got the sense toward the end that ownership and fans regarded each other as necessary inconveniences. 前经营者有倾听困难 Sandy Alderson是个聪明的棒球人 经营球队在各方面都取得成果 只可惜没有拉近跟球迷的距离 SD人不要当被统治的国民 而想当合夥人 但Moores跟Alderson没有这想法 等到卖球队前一刻才懂经营跟球迷互相扶持是必要之重 The new ownership group has made strides in restoring hope among disillusioned fans. Moorad and Garfinkel have talked a good game, but talk must be backed up by action. They have taken some small steps in that direction: lowering the price of beer, changing the start time of weekday afternoon games, and other cosmetic changes that may not make a difference to the bottom line but that tell San Diegans, "Hey, we're listening and we're trying to improve your experience." 新团队给了失去梦想的球迷希望 Moorad and Garfinkel 构筑了好比赛的梦 这个梦必须靠实际行动踏实 目前的步伐虽小但方向正确 降低啤酒价格 更改周间比赛开始时间 以及一些粉饰的调整在在向球迷表达一件事: "嘿 我们有在听而且我们想让你们比赛看得更爽快" Are such steps necessary? A quick check of the proverbial scoreboard is revealing: 这些努力重要吗? 来看一下进场数据怎麽说: Year Attendance Att/G 2004 3,016,752 37,244 2005 2,869,787 35,429 2006 2,659,757 32,837 2007 2,790,074 34,445 2008 2,427,535 29,970 2009 1,919,603 23,699 In six short years at their beautiful new downtown ballpark, the Padres have seen attendance plummet from a franchise high to lows last experienced in the wake of Tom Werner's Infamous Fire Sale and the subsequent labor dispute that ruined everyone's plans. At that time, when the threat of contraction was Bud Selig's weapon of choice, the Padres were mentioned as a possible candidate. 六年来在美丽的市区球场Petco 教士们惊觉球迷进场数暴跌 这个跌幅是前前东家Tom Werner的跳楼大拍卖与MLB劳资纠纷以来仅见 那时Bug Selig甚至想过用教士的契约来威胁球员们... (译按:这种要怎麽翻....) If some of us get a little nervous when fan interest wanes around these parts, it's only because we don't want to see our team moved elsewhere. Not that this appears to be an immediate concern, but after a very close call in 1974 and vague threats in the mid-'90s (to say nothing of what Selig did to the Montreal Expos), it's not as far in the back of our minds as we'd like it to be. 即使我们担心球迷的爱会因此消逝 那是因为我们不想让球队离开SD 也不是说这是个直接的危机 但1974殷鉴不远 90年代的含混威胁也还忘不了 (Selig怎麽对付博览会的...我都无言了) 那个风险也还没远到我们希望的程度 Sure, there are reasons for the plunge in attendance: The team has been bad the past couple of years, previous ownership didn't make nice when things were good, the economy stinks, people stop caring about a shiny new ballpark when they have other shiny new objects to distract them, etc. That said, there is no way to spin the numbers in a way that makes them look anything other than alarming. 当然入场数锐减有很多原因 这球队最近很鸟 前东家没趁之前状况好多开发球迷 经济状况烂爆了 当被别的闪亮东西分心时 闪亮亮的新球场不再能吸引目光 (译按:也就是说有明星能赢球才是王道 球场不重要) 想让扭转进场数字的惊人度似乎很困难... As for payroll, it's going to be low for a while. On the bright side, several franchises have demonstrated that it's possible to field a competitive ballclub despite financial limitations. On the not-so-bright side, many fans regard this fact as propaganda and aren't interested in hearing about it. What can you do? 至於薪资的部分 看来短期内是高不起来 往好处想:起码有球队低薪资也有竞争力 至於不那麽好的方向:球迷们认为低薪资有竞争力只是嘴炮且根本不鸟你的说辞 你能怎办? ======= 干....这篇(尤其是上面这段)实在太难翻了 ======= Bonus question: How much longer will Adrian Gonzalez remain with the Padres? 安可题:A刚还能在这留多久? Not much longer. Enjoy him while you can and hope he brings something good in return when the time comes. 没多久了 享受他还在的时间 并期待时候到来他能换来一些年轻肉体吧 ====== 这篇真的超级难翻 比起上篇(红袜那篇) 大概花了四倍的时间吧... 典故多 形容词多 句子长 又爱用比喻... 数据多 但实际上对现役先发根本没提几个字 看样子今年教士是真的前途黯淡.... 亏我还想多去看几场勒....真伤心Orz 总之翻这篇真的很辛苦... 希望大家看得愉快~~ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 70.179.13.240 ※ nolander:转录至看板 Padres 04/02 15:15 ※ 编辑: nolander 来自: 70.179.12.51 (07/05 02:04)