The 2009 Houston Astros performed down to expectations, finishing with a 74-88 record. Drayton McLane, the owner, had ordered the general manager, Ed Wade, to "work with" Tal Smith, the president of baseball operations, to keep the team "competitive" without signing free agents to more than one-year contracts. To keep a long story short, Ed Wade's cheap free agents—Ivan Rodriguez, Mike Hampton, Russ Ortiz and Jason Michaels— didn't help the team win. Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman both suffered from injuries and decreased effectiveness. Carlos Lee posted a 118 OPS+, which was his lowest since 2003. Miguel Tejada's 109 OPS+ was negatively balanced by his poor defensive play. 2009年.太空人有个失望的球季.74胜88败 终极警探麦克连爷爷要GM Wade与球队总裁Tal Smith"合作"让球队在没有签超过一年约FA 的情况下保持竞争力.但Wade的便宜军团I-Rod,老汉,Russ Ortiz,Jason Michaels没帮到 球队什麽. 王牌跟白肥又都因为受伤多多少少影响到.黑肥的118 OPS+是他03年以来最低的.Tejada 的109 OPS+勉强可以跟他糟糕的防守抵销 On the bright side, Michael Bourn improved greatly, playing a dazzling center field, stealing an NL-high 61 bases and improving his OPS+ to 96 from 54; Wandy Rodriguez continued his excellent pitching, posting a 139 ERA+ over a career-high 205 innings; Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins were solid as closer and setup man; Ed Wade's proclivity for picking very good relievers off waiver wires and team discards proved itself with the emergence of Jeff Fulchino, Alberto Arias and Tim Byrdak. The manager and pitching coach were heartily disliked by the players and the team had all the cohesion of particles in Brownian motion by the end of the year. The lackadaisical play had them losing 20 out of their last 26 games; the owner specifically instructed the manager to not play any of the young players who had been called up; the fans were bored and disappointed. 在好的方面.Bourn快速的进步:中外野令人惊艳的守备.国联最多的61次盗垒还有OPS+ 从 54成长到96.Wandy Rodriguez持续高档.投出139 ERA+以及生涯新高的205局.肥弟跟 LaTroy Hawkins让後防相当舒服 Wade喜爱在waiver wires捡一些别队不要但不差的後援投手.并且给他们有机会证明自己. 像Jeff Fulchino, Alberto Arias and Tim Byrdak. 总教练跟投教都非常不喜欢季末时球员跟球队间的弥漫着一股诡异的气氛.这些无精打 采的演出造季末最後26场里输了快20场.老板特别指出教练不敢用被升上来的新秀.球迷都 很无聊跟失望 The owner did what he did two years ago when the team had a similar losing record—fired the incompetent manager. This time, he hired a man to manage who had been associated with the Red Sox instead of merely obeying Bud Selig's "suggestion" for manager. He also hired Brad Arnsberg, an experienced pitching coach with a stellar reputation, and fired every other coach with the exception of the hitting coach and replaced them with men from outside the rganization (except for third base coach Dave Clark, also very well liked by the players) instead of merely promoting from within, as usual. So far this spring, the players appear to have very positively responded to both the new manager and pitching coach. While it is quite true that one can't make chicken soup out of chicken, uh, excrement, a positive attitude, enthusiasm and confidence from the players is a change for the better. So, what is in store for the 2010 Astros, given that few people outside of hopeful Astros fans expect to team to improve on last year's record? 当球队跟两年前烂的战绩.老板不免俗的也火掉无能的教练.这次.他选了一个跟红袜有关 的而非按照Bud Selig的建议.他也雇用了有经验名望的投教Brad Arnsberg.并且除了打 教其他的教练都火掉.照例从外面找人来替代他们(除了三垒教练Dave Clark.他也相当受 到球员喜爱)而非从内部寻找. 到目前春训看来.球员都积极地回应新教头跟投教.然而.再好的教练也是需要配合球员本 身.一个积极的态度.热情以及自信对球员都是变更好的一种转变. 所以2010年对於太空人来说.能给球迷比去年更好的成绩吗? Will the Astros again insist on using, um, recycled Veteran Presences or give young players a chance? New manager Brad Mills, unlike his predecessor, is actually willing and eager to try young players, but unfortunately for him, Ed Wade is not. Although there is ostensibly a tryout for outfielders Yordany Ramirez, Alex Romero and Brian Bogusevic, Wade has already told reporters and prediction services that 30-year-old lefty Cory Sullivan and his 81 OPS+ will be the fifth-outfielder replacement for Darin Erstad and his grittiness. Cory is almost a duplicate of Erstad—slim, blond, left-handed, seldom walks, strikes out in 20 percent of his at-bats, has very little power, runs fast in center—a born Astro. There was never any doubt about ex-Phillie Jason Michaels and his weak glove and 98 OPS+ taking the fourth-outfielder spot. 问题1:太空人是否会坚持用老将还是给新秀机会呢? 新教练Brad Mills跟前任教头不同.实际上他愿意并倾向给年轻人机会.可惜对他来说. Wade是相反的 虽然现在表面看起来在试用外野手Yordany Ramirez,Alex Romero and Brian Bogusevic .但是Wade已经告诉记者并预言30岁的左撇Sullivan跟他的81 OPS+成绩将代替Erstad成为 第5号外野手 Sullivan几乎跟Erstad类似.单薄.白人.左撇.很少保送.打数里有20%被三振.力量低.跑很 快---天生的太空人 咦.那你应该不会怀疑第4号外野手是Jason Michaels这个烂守备跟98 OPS+取得 Edwin Maysonet.28岁.却无法取代Keppinger.尽管他比较有才能.特别是防守 投手呢?没有年轻投手有机会被叫上去.除了Felipe Paulino等几只少数投手有机会从小联 盟一路走上去.给了他超乎想像的机会.所以.老妖横行.除非老头受伤加上你是重点人物 或突然成为焦点就会开启大门 不要期待有更好战绩.因为新老人并不会都比老老人好多少 Will Matt Lindstrom and Brandon Lyon effectively replace LaTroy Hawkins and Jose Valverde at setup and closer? Valverde over the past two years was an extremely effective closer who accumulated 69 saves, 11 blown saves and one additional loss. He threw only 54 innings last year because he was injured when a batted ball struck his shin. He recovered fully without incident; he posted an ERA+ of 180. LaTroy Hawkins, picked up off the waiver wire in 2008, threw 84 innings of 1.77 ERA ball over 89 games, compiling 32 holds, 12 saves, four blown saves, three wins and four losses over that year and a half. Neither Matt Lindstrom nor Brandon Lyon has been a particularly effective closer in the past. Lindstrom started 2009 as the Marlins' closer, and by the time he lost his job in June, he had a 6.53 ERA, 20 walks and 26 strikeouts over 31 innings pitched; in spite of his throwing hard, he has had a BB/9 rate over 4 over the past two years and his K/9 rate is 7.1, low for a power-pitching closer. Brandon Lyon was a setup man for the Tigers in 2009, pitching 78.2 innings over 65 games with a 161 ERA+ and losing five games, with an additional blown save, and posting a K/9 rate of 6.5 and a BB/9 of 3.5, a career-high figure. He had a 4.76 ERA, four losses and five blown saves at the end of August 2008, when he lost his closer's job to Chad Qualls. In 2007, he was an extremely effective setup man for Jose Valverde. The probability is not good that either man will duplicate Valverde's success; however, Lyon has proved to be an effective setup man and may serve as a very expensive replacement for Hawkins. The real question is how long will Ed Wade allow each man to continue pitching his assigned inning if he proves ineffective before either replacing him with one of the Astros' young pitchers or, more likely, trading Astros minor leaguers for an expensive Proven Middle Reliever? 问题2:林暴风+狮头能有效的取代去年的Hawkins+肥弟吗? 肥弟两年来是出色的守护神.累积69SV.11BS.以及一次救援败.他去年被球打到胫受伤只 投了54局.他充分的恢复并缴出ERA+ 180的成绩 LaTroy Hawkins是2008年捡来的.这一年半他出赛了89场投了近84局并缴出Era 1.77还有 32个中继点.12个SV.3胜4败的成绩 林暴风跟狮头都不足以承担守护神的位置.2009年开季林暴风是马林鱼的守护神.但是6月 就丢了这个位置他的ERA高达6.53并在超过31局的投球有20个BB跟26K.尽管他投得很卖力 .但是他的BB/9值超过4也比他过去两年高.而K/9值7.1则比其它威力型守护神低 狮头09年在老虎队里当布局投手.出赛65场78.2局.成绩是161 ERA+输掉了5场比赛以及一 次的BS --K/9值6.5以及BB/9值3.5.一个生涯高峰的数字 08年ERA 4.76.4次败投和5个BS是他在Chad Qualls 8月接手守护神前的成绩.但07年它 可是在肥弟上场前最出色的布局投手.要复制出肥弟的成绩是不可能的.狮头可能会缴出 不错的布局投手成绩.但那只是非常贵的Hawkins @@ 真正的问题是如果牛棚开始爆爆乐Wade会让这些牛称到什麽时候换新秀上来试试呢?事实 上.太空人会用年轻人交易来有经验的中继投手的机率比较大 Will the much-hyped (by the Astros organization) Jason Castro be given the starting catching position to start the year? Ed Wade has told reporters on the record that Humberto Quintero WILL be the backup catcher; his 58 OPS+ combined with his virtual refusal to walk and propensity to strike out make him the ideal backup catcher, except for his mediocre defensive skills. Castro had a .747 OPS over 239 at-bats at Double-A Corpus Christi in 2009, and he has never faced Triple-A pitching. His opponent for the starting position is 26-year-old J.R. Towles, who failed when given the job of starting catcher in 2008. However, he has an .842 OPS at Triple-A over 356 at-bats and is hitting the ball well in spring training: 11-for-20. If he continues to hit this well, he will probably be given the starting job again, and the Astros will hold Castro back until the Super Two deadline has passed. If Castro is hitting well at Triple-A and if Towles is not hitting well, Castro may be promoted even earlier. The Astros apparently think that Castro is the next Johnny Bench. 问题3:令人兴奋的Jason Castro有机会在今年看到他先发蹲捕吗? Wade告诉记者Quintero会是备用捕手.58 OPS+还有不愿意等保送又很容易被K.除了二流的 守备.是个典型的替补 Castro 09年在2A超过239个打数缴出.747 OPS .但他还没上过3A 他的竞争对手是26岁的毛巾小弟.08年在大联盟有一段相当失败的开季 但是.他在3A超过356个打数缴出.842 OPS并且春训也打得很好:11-for-20 他如果持续这样的表现.有可能再度开季先发.然後就能下放Castro并延後他的仲裁资格 但如果Castro在3A适应良好.毛巾小弟又打不起来.可能Castro会更早被推上前线 太空人认为他是下一个Johnny Bench Will the monster that is Lance Berkman in even years return for an encore in 2010? Lance Berkman had a down year (for him) last year, posting a .274/.396/.509/.907 line. He slumped badly to begin the year, posting only a .743 OPS after four weeks of play, and insisted he was not hurt. He then recovered his stroke after sitting out three days, and increased his OPS to .943 by July 22, then missed 25 games because of an injury to his right calf. He did finish with a 139 OPS+ over 136 games, not exactly a poor showing, but many point to his even years' OPS+ since 2002 of 150, 159, 163, 159 and compare them to his odd years since 2003 of 138, 143, 130, 139 and declare that this can't be normal variation, which, of course, it is. This is also his walk year on his five-year contract, and if Berkman has recovered from his minor knee arthroscopy, I would expect him to post at least the same slash line that he did last year over 160 games. 问题4:白肥会在2010年再度变成偶数年怪物吗? 去年对白肥来说是打得很差的一年.打击四围是.274/.396/.509/.907 开季就开始烙赛.1个月後才缴出.743 OPS.并且宣称:我没有受伤 但是.他休息了3天後却开始人来疯.在6月22日时OPS增加到 .943 然後因为他的右小腿受伤错过25场比赛 在136场比赛里缴出了139 OPS+.虽然不算太差 但比对他2002年以来偶数年的OPS+ 150, 159, 163, 159 比较他2003年来基数年的 138, 143, 130, 139 这些数据当然不能说是正常的变化. 今年也是他走到合约的第5年.如果手术後恢复良好 我可以期待他出赛超过160场然後缴出一份好的成绩单 Will Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman and/or Roy Oswalt be traded for prospects? It is not that Ed Wade refuses to try to rebuild, but that all three of those players have COMPLETE no-trade clauses. Carlos Lee has said, on the record, at least three times, that he will refuse any trade; in fact, he has so far refused three trades. Lance Berkman is in the last year of his contract and has been adamant about refusing to be traded to any team except the Rangers, who don't need a first baseman. However, if the Astros make it clear to him that they will not pick up his $15 million option for 2011, it is possible that he might agree to a trade at the deadline. Even if he has to leave Texas. Roy Oswalt has one more year on his five-year deal, and if he posts good numbers in the first half, and if the Astros are doing very poorly, and if Roy demands a trade, he may be traded at the deadline, although it is doubtful because his top two teams are the Braves and the Cardinals. Had Drayton McLane not replaced the pitching coach in the offseason, chances are excellent that Oswalt would himself have demanded a trade. However, the probability is that neither will be traded because the owner wants them both to spend their entire career in an Astros uniform, as Bagwell and Biggio did. And Drayton McLane is the most interfering owner in the majors, now that The Boss has essentially retired. 问题5:为了远景是否该把黑白双肥交易出去.甚至是Oswalt 不是Wade不想要重建.而是因为阵中有3位球员拥有NTC 根据报导.黑肥说他至少3次拒绝被交易.事实确实是3次交易失败 白肥是最後一年合约.他坚决只能被交易到条子.刚好条子不缺一垒手 然而.只要球团不执行他的2011年选择权.想必白肥也只能同意被交易出去.即使因此离开 德州 王牌离他的5年约还有一年多.如果他上半季投的不错.然後太空人持续低迷.而且王牌想被 交易.那麽他有机会在截止日前被交易.虽然是很困难的.因为他最喜欢的2个选择是斧头帮 或红雀 麦克连爷爷有可能在季後换一个投教吗?只要王牌要求被交易.机会是可能的 因为.麦克连爷爷并不想交易他们2个.而是希望他们终身都穿着太空人的球衣.就像老巴 跟BGO 麦克连爷爷曾经是联盟中干预最多的老板.但现在已经交给年轻人了 Bonus question: Will Ed Wade obtain more middle relievers before Opening Day? Does the sun rise in the east? Is the Pope Catholic? Are the Astros thanking their lucky stars that the Pirates exist so that they won't finish last in the NL Central? 附带问题:Wade是否会在开季前获得多点牛 太阳是从东边升起吧?教宗是信仰天主教吧?太空人是否会想:超爽德.有海盗在国联中区 帮忙垫底.答案是肯定的 第一次翻.感谢赐教@@ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.122.38.218 ※ 编辑: MonkeyFly 来自: 140.122.38.218 (04/02 16:28) ※ googoodoll:转录至看板 Astros 04/02 22:55