Five questions: Los Angeles Dodgers by Joshua Fisher March 23, 2010 In terms of roster moves and baseball dealings, it's been a relatively quiet offseason for Southern California's flagship sports franchise. Part of that lull in coverage can be attributed to the underwhelming moves engineered by Dodgers GM Ned Colletti. Bringing back Vicente Padilla and Ronnie Belliard and adding Jamey Carroll and Reed Johnson doesn't exactly light up MLBTR. Indeed, the most significant baseball news of the winter was the team's decision not to offer Type A free agents Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson arbitration. Other than that, it's been a downright tranquil hot stove season. 依据目前的布局和交易来看，在南加州的季後赛实在是太平静了 这表面上的平静可能是因为道奇的 GM 并没有做出什麽令人惊奇的举动… 弄来了 Vicente Padilla, Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carroll 跟 Reed Johnson 结果 MLBTR 连看都不看 (茶) 看来今年冬天最有代表性的新闻 还是球队决定不提供 Randy Wolf 跟 Orlando Hudson 仲裁权啊 orz 剩下的也没什麽大不了的了 What's that you say? Something about a high-profile, billion-dollar divorce? Affairs with team underlings, grandiose plans for world domination, and repeated denials that the seemingly simple dissolution of a marriage has had any effect on the club despite ominous evidence to the contrary? Okay, so this might not all be news to me, but I feel that the club itself has taken a backseat this winter to the McCourts' shenanigans. That said, ignoring them completely in a preview of the 2010 season would be inappropriate, so let's get this nastiness out of the way. 什麽？难道你不知道吗？前几天才爆一个可能达上亿元离婚赡养费的八卦啊 (茶) 这件事情可能会影响整个球队的运作！！！！ 看来这件事情对新一季的道奇队必然会有很大的影响吧 1. How will the McCourt divorce affect the 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers? 你觉得 McCourt 离婚官司事件可能会怎样影响新一季的道奇队呢？ Other than deflecting attention from the Manny Ramirez contract drive circus, the answer is probably "not a whole lot." The litigation to resolve the ownership of the club, once scheduled to begin May 24, has been postponed indefinitely. Reaching a resolution during this baseball season is a long-shot, and don't put this thing past extending all the way into 2011. With the ownership of the club up in the air, one wonders, should the season have a successful ending, if Jamie McCourt might petition the family law court to award her a locker-room-style champagne celebration to keep her on equal footing with Frank. 终於有人问了不是 Manny 合约的问题啦~ 答案是…会有影响，但不会很大 毕竟这官司五月底才打，还不知道要打到啥时才会结束 说不定会打到 2011 年，所以烦恼那个，还不如先烦恼怎麽拿冠军 有人说，这样说不定会是这一件一个好的结局 球队的经营权不知道归谁， 然後 Jamie McCourt 关起门来庆祝他跟他老公一样有钱了 (好在哪？) As far as the product on the field goes, it sure appears that the die has been cast when it comes to payroll. If the Dodgers somehow sell more tickets or merchandise than forecast, might there be money to make a splash midseason? Perhaps. But given that the team's recent M.O. has been to spin off talented prospects rather than pick up salaries, Dodgers fans can't be terribly optimistic about the team's ability to add a big piece in mid-to-late July. Regardless of who you want to believe on how much money Frank's got to spend on the team, it's clearly not being run as a megamarket team should be. 至少现在该卖钱的都还是继续卖，或许季中还有点钱可以拿来捡点好物来用 最近球队为了省钱才处理掉一些可能有希望的新人而已， 老实说球迷们也知道球队大概没什麽能力在七月过後还能补充什麽大物进来。 更别说大家都知道有个家伙正等着分球队的钱。 The most visible impact of the McCourt divorce will be the constant media noise surrounding the topic. Being a Dodger this year must be something like being a non-Tiger Woods PGA Tour member. At some point, you probably have to convince the media that you still, you know, play the game. And given the tendency thus far for fairly explosive information to hit the press at least once per month, this story isn't going away any time soon. From a fan's perspective, though, the divorce ought to be fairly benign. Tickets to games will still be reasonably priced, even if the same might not be said for the options for purchase within Dodger Stadium. But, hey, there's still nothing like Chavez Ravine on a warm summer night at sunset. 对球队而言，目前最大的冲击还是媒体的报导一直在那上面绕 身为一个道奇人，今年最好别让自己加入 Tiger Woods 的行列了 orz 毕竟球员还是要以打球为重。 我想这件事这麽有话题性，大概也不会多快就落幕 从球迷的观点，这个事件应该还是算是件好事。 球赛的票并不会因此变贵，毕竟没有别的地方会像这里一样 能够在日落後有个暖和的夏夜啊 2. What in the world does this team do if someone gets hurt? 球队对於接下来如果遇上有人受伤会有什麽问题吗？ This team is supermodel-thin in the outfield. It's got a kiddie-pool infield— breadth in lots of options, but no depth in talent. The outfield—Ramirez, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier—is backed up by Johnson and the mythical Jason Repko. Greg Miller disease, you see. Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal and James Loney are assured starting spots in the infield, while Blake Dewitt and Alfredo Amezaga are battling the aforementioned Belliard and Carroll for the second base job. If one of the non-Loney infielders goes down—and remember, Furca is a member of this group—then the replacement would likely come from one of the losers of the second base competition. Catcher Russell Martin, facing serious questions about his own future, is backed up by A.J. Ellis, whose tangible skills include getting on base at an acceptable rate and, well, getting on base at an acceptable rate. 这球队的外野防区像是个超级巨星聚集地 但内野就像小孩子游戏的地方，是有很多可以抓来当替补的 但是好用的就不是那麽多了 外野有 Ramirez, Matt Kemp 跟 Andre Ethier，还有 Johnson 跟 Jason Repko 在等着 Greg Miller 生病了…你知道吧！？ (有点跳 tone?) 而 Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal 跟 James Loney 都确定了他们在内野的先发位置 Blake Dewitt 跟 Alfredo Amezaga 还在等着看要选谁 Belliard 跟 Carroll 也还没决定要放谁在二垒 如果倒下的不是 Loney 的话，那就会让二垒比输的放去他的位置 补手的位置现在也有 A.J. Ellis 当备用，他的上垒率也还可以…嗯，就还可以 If one of the outfielders, the three of which are the team's best hitters, has to miss extended time, this team might be toast. The good news is that Kemp and Ethier are reliable and young. The bad news is the other is Ramirez. As for the infielders, the team could survive an injury to anyone from second base around to third without suffering a season-crushing blow. That is, of course, unless Blake plans to do at 36 something like what he did at 35, when he posted a .280/.363/.468 line. That's a guy you can't lose. Problem is, of course, due to regression and aging, the Dodgers probably already have lost him. It's difficult to say what sort of impact an injury to Loney would have, as he's quite the wildcard heading into 2010, but we'll talk about him later. 如果外野手，也就是我们队上最好的打者，有人受伤的话， 那球队可能就会比较麻烦一点了 好消息是 kemp 跟 Ethier 可以信赖而且也还有青春的肉体 坏消息就是… Ramirez..... 内野的话，二垒到三垒只要不是整季爆消都不会有问题 除非 Blake 打算在他 36 岁的高龄还打算像他去年一样凶 (打击三围 .280/.363/.468) 尽管 Loney 如果受伤又没有他的话可能会有点冲击 不然球队基於年龄考量，已经准备好会失去他的打算了 或许我们等等可以再聊聊有关他的事... There are similar questions facing the rotation. Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley—who also will be discussed later—are nearly irreplaceable. Think of those two like the outfielders, Hiroki Kuroda and Padilla are penciled into the third and fourth spots. While they aren't great shakes— Kuroda has durability issues and Padilla has Padilla issues—the Dodgers really can't afford for one of them to go down either. That's because the group battling for the 30-some starts from the fifth spot, which features Eric Stults, James McDonald and Carlos Monasterios, really ought not to make many starts from the third and fourth spots in the rotation. 在投手轮值上， Kershaw 跟 Billingsley 看起来应该就是不动先发了 就像那两个有年轻肉体的外野手一样 $_$ Hiroki Kuroda 跟 Padilla 暂定会是第三号跟第四号先发 不过他们可能还不够稳，Kuroda 看起来没啥挡头，Padilla 则有 Padilla 的问题 不过目前球队没办法承担他们如果掰了的话要怎麽办 至於现在第五号先发还没决定，应该会从下面三个里面选一个 Eric Stults, James McDonald 跟 Carlos Monasterios 他们应该也没办法先发像第三、四号这麽多场吧 The bullpen is a brighter picture. I think about four of these guys—Jonathan Broxton, George Sherrill, Ramon Troncoso and Hong Chih Kuo—would be in line for relief ace work with other teams. (Psst...Mr. Colletti...are you paying attention?) And there's some depth to the 'pen, too. Any number of losers in the race for the fifth rotation spot can help out of the bullpen, including McDonald and Scott Elbert. Bottom line is that the bullpen is about the only place the team can reach into its reserves and not suffer much on the field. Except second base, I suppose, but the Dodgers don't figure to get much from there anyway. 牛棚的话… Broxton, Sherrill, Troncoso, 小小郭 都可以胜任中继 (Psst.... Colletti... 你还有在听吗？) 还有其他可用之兵可以用，上面那些没当上第五号先发的也是 牛棚大概是所有位置里最不怕有伤兵的吧 除了二垒之外，我想道奇应该不太需要担心太多 3. Just who are Loney and Billingsley? 刚说 Loney 跟 Billingsley 等等再聊，那就现在聊吧，介绍一下他们吧 Both born in 1984 and debuting in 2006, they were supposed to be the first wave of the monsoon of youngsters who figured to put the Dodgers in a dominant position for several years. They've certainly shown significant signs of life. All Loney did in his 111 plate appearances in 2006 was post a .284/.342/.559 line. Not bad for a 22-year old with a reputation as an excellent defender. As for Billingsley, he recorded a shiny 3.80 ERA in 16 starts. This being 2010, of course, we know to look further—he struck out just one more batter than he walked, FIPing his way to a 4.88 freshman campaign. Not awe-inspiring, but he is the younger of the two. 这两个都是 1984 年出生的，2006 年选秀进来 他们是第一波注入道奇的新血，也让道奇在後面几年能有够纵横球赛的实力 他们应该要算是这一代的代表球员了吧 Loney 在他的 2006 年 111 次打席中，交出了 .284/.342/.559 的打击三围 以一个 22 岁的新秀来说算是很威了 而 Billingsley 在 16 次先发中也有亮眼的 3.80 ERA (後面这段不会翻 orz) Since his debut, Loney has moved the wrong direction in some ways. His SLG dropped from .538 in 375 plate appearances in 2007 to .434 (651 PA) in 2008, and cratered at a ghastly .399 in another 651 plate appearances in 2009. He was 25 last year. This is not the trend you want to see from a first baseman, especially one whose swing just looks so good. But there is, yet, cause for hope. He rebounded from a 0.53 BB/K ratio in 2008 to a much-more encouraging 1.03 figure in 2009. And he shows decent enough plate control: His percentage of swings outside the zone has decreased each season, while his contact rate reached a career high 88.5 percent last season. If the power comes—and he'll turn just 26 in May—he might still be a monster. Through his age-25 season, his No. 1 Baseball Reference comparable is Jeff Bagwell. Don't give up, yet, Dodgers fans. Loney 从他初登板後，他有些数据似乎不是这麽的好 他的长打率从 07 年的 .538 到了 08 年掉到 .434，09 年剩下 .399 这不是大家乐见的一垒手该有的样子，特别是他的挥棒姿势看起来没啥问题 不过他的选球眼有长出来，而且跑垒的选择看起来也比较好了 他挥击坏球的次数也有逐年下降，contact rate 也到他的生涯新高 88.5 我猜他今年五月就会进化成完全体，你们会看到一个全新的一垒手兼强打者 As for Billingsley, I admit to being among the most bullish on his future. While a couple of notable playoff debacles and odd injuries have drawn some extremely negative press, I'm not sure most realize what the Dodgers have in the solidly built right hander. After that promising-but-illusory 2006, he proceeded to fool hitters instead of shiny-number worshipers. Although, "fool" might be the wrong word; Billingsley's tool of the trade is power. In the three seasons since his debut, he's never struck out fewer than 8.21 per nine or posted a WHIP greater than 1.32. In 2008, he threw more than 200 innings and logged a 3.62 xFIP as a 23-year old. Last season, he made the All-Star team following a sparkling first half in which he allowed a .227/.316/.339 line. That's pretty much turning every hitter into David Eckstein. The injury problems that derailed his season, combined with his reputation for postseason failure, have made many forget that he was on the fast track to acedom only a few short months ago. I expect him to be excellent this year and going forward. 至於 Billinigsley，我承认那些有关他未来大放异彩的耳语应该都会是真的 不过在季後赛爆了两场，然後又受伤… 我也不太确定道奇队是不是还是这麽坚信这位右投手 不过，至少他现在能够成功的迷惑打者，而不是只依赖那些数据 或许用"迷惑"这两个字可能不是那麽的正确 Billingsley 最大的武器是他的力量 从他登板的三个球季来，他的三振率没有低於 8.21，WHIP 也没有超过 1.32 2008 年，他投了超过 200 局， xFIP 只有 3.62 去年，他在明星赛先发，打者的打击三围才 .227/.316/.339 打者遇到他都变得像 David Eckstein 一样了 (Eckstein: 躺着也中枪) 受伤可能是他爆炸的原因，不过整体来说他还是表现的很好 我很期待他今年可以变得更强 4. What will become of Manny Ramirez? 那 Manny Ramirez 呢？ You've seen the story: Manny doesn't expect to be back with the Dodgers in 2011 after the expiration of his two-year, $45 million contract. Manny's clearly smarter than people give him credit for; of course he won't be back! Not at anything approaching his current price tag, anyway. Between his personality quirks, chicanery in the outfield, and ever-looming threat of a shutdown, Manny's best team for the remainder of his career (with the Dodgers and otherwise) might always be "another team." Given his pending free agency, and taking into account the declining market for declining designated hitters, it's hard to know what to expect from him this season. 我想你也知道，Manny 2011 年後不打算再跟道奇续约 我想 Manny 应该是不会再回来了 个人的观点，我觉得 Manny 在外野的表现， 对他来说，剩下的球员生涯应该不会再留在道奇 除非他愿意以一个指定打击的球员身份继续打下去 On one hand, he could rake. Desperate to prove he's still a top-line hitter, he might come out and do something preposterous for a 38-year-old. Make no mistake, .325/.430/.580 is in play. While this outcome isn't likely by any means, it's possible, and not even in the anything-is-possible-with-Manny way. If he does something like that over 600 plate appearances, he'll be one of the most interesting free agent cases in recent years. And the Dodgers just might do a whole lot of winning along the way. 毕竟他也 38 岁了。.325/.430/.580 的打击三围还是很威 他证明了他还是第一线的打者 如果让他跑去自由市场的话，他大概会是这几年自由市场里最威的球员吧 Things aren't likely to go quite that well. Our own forecast has him at .298/.400/.524, coming to the plate 554 times. Most Dodgers fans would take that outcome in a heartbeat. ZiPS projects a .290/.405/.538 line over 536 plate appearances, while CHONE pegs him for a .280/.374/.511 season in just 478 plate appearances. Obviously, even the most bearish expectations for what he'll do at the plate identify him as a serious offensive threat. It's all a matter of how often he'll be in the lineup and the extent to which his offense can offset his defense. 不过我觉得事情不会这麽顺利啦 我们自己预估他明年大概剩下 .298/.400/.524， ZiPS 则是估 .290/.405/.538 CHONE 则是 .280/.374/.511，而且打数只剩下 478 个 很明显的，他在打击上还会是个威胁, 不过他的守备就完全无解了，这是他将要面对的 5. Is there a more desirable young hitter/pitcher combination in the majors than Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw? 来聊聊那些年轻的球员吧 除了 Matt Kemp 跟 Clayton Kershaw 之外， 你还想对哪些大联盟哪些年轻的投打组合发表看法吗？ You might not have heard of many members of the horde of pitchers competing for the last spot in the rotation. And, like me, you might be skeptical of Jason Repko's existence. Kershaw and Kemp do not enjoy such anonymity. The pair—Kemp will be 25 this season and Kershaw just 23—has everything you might want in a young duo. Kemp is on the cusp of MVP candidacy already, coming off a .297/.352/.490 (plus good defense) effort in 2009. And all Kershaw has done is strike out 285 batters in his first 278.2 innings. 你可能不知道，其实有很多人在争最後一个先发轮值的位置 你可能也和我一样，怀疑 Jason Repko 是不是有他有必要性 Kershaw 跟 Kemp 就不太会有没没无名的困扰 Kemp 已经是个 MVP 球员了，Kershaw 去年三振了 285 个打者 Kershaw, with just two seasons under his belt and susceptible to pitchers' generally more unpredictable career trajectories, has the more significant warts. He still walks too many batters—4.79 per nine innings last year. Unsurprisingly, he has difficulty going deep into games, averaging just under 5.2 innings per start in 2009. But man, oh man, his stuff. Despite the ugly walk figure,he carried just a 3.90 xFIP last season. And while his innings did rise from 107.2 to 171 over the last two seasons, he has been used judiciously. Often to the point of frustration (both of the fans and Kershaw himself), he's been routinely pulled during good games once his pitch count exceeded 100. While this isn't a perfect indicator of durability, the point is the Dodgers have done what they can. There's only so much you can hold back a player as talented as Kershaw. Three of his pitches are worth at least 1.36 runs per 100 pitches, and he uses his one below-average pitch—a nascent changeup—just 4.6 percent of the time. He's special. Kershaw 已经有两个球季的登板经验，而且还有着不可限量的生涯 不过他还是保送了太多的打者 (平均每九局保送 4.79 个) 不令人意外的，他平均每场球只能投不到 5.2 局 但是尽管这样，他还是缴出 3.90 xFIP 的成绩，投球局数也从 107.2 升到了 171 局 虽然他常常遇到挫折，但在他状况好的时候，他也是能投超过 100 球的 他是为很有天份的投手，我相信他能再表现的更好 Kemp is much more of a known commodity, though he still possesses potential for more. His development trend line has been, well, the sort of thing that would be in a textbook about this sort of thing. Over the last three years, his plate appearances have gone 311, 657, 667. BB/K rates: 0.24, 0.30, 0.37. Isolated power: .178, .168, .193. Heck, even his run value in the outfield has trended -3.7, -0.1, 2.6. He's not the perfect player; his on-base skills could use work, he takes strange routes now and then, and his performance is BABIP-heavy. And yet his on-base skills are moving the right direction, he's getting better in the field, and sustainable BABIP varies player to player. Simply put, when you've got a young player with such excellent strengths— power and speed—who is improving on his weaknesses (instincts in the field and getting on base) you've got one of the most valuable players in the game. Kemp 还有很大的潜力，他的发展曲线就像教科数里的那样 上垒数 311→657→667 BB/K值 0.24→0.30→0.37 Isolated power: .178→.168→.193 球击到外野时的跑垒得分值：-3.7→-0.1→2.6 他并不是完美的球员，他擅用他的跑垒技巧，诡异的跑垒路径，让他的 BABIP 值提高 他现在的跑垒技巧正在提昇，防守也慢慢变强了 简单的说，这家伙已经具备了优异的力量和速度，也正在强化他的弱点 这大概是我们已经有的 MVP 球员了 So how do these two stack up with other young tandems? Zack Greinke and Billy Butler certainly deserve a mention. Yovani Gallardo and Prince Fielder figure in, though Fielder gets expensive soon. Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson might be better, but they're costlier. Pablo Sandoval and Tim Lincecum are certainly contenders. Ubaldo Jimenez and Troy Tulowitzki are very good. And who knows what Jason Heyward might do paired up with Jair Jurrjens or Tommy Hanson. Evaluating all these duos against each other sounds like excellent fodder for a future article, but for now I'll go with this: if Kemp and Kershaw aren't the best young hitter/pitcher combination in the majors, they're very, very close. 所以除了这些之外，还有谁呢？ 我想会是 Zack Greinke 跟 Billy Butler 吧 Yovani Gallardo 跟 Prince Fielder 也可以考虑，不过 Fielder 很快的会成为大物 Hanley Ramirez 跟 Josh Johnson 可能会比较好，不过他们现在价位太高了 Pablo Sandoval 跟 Tim Lincecum 也很有竞争力 Ubaldo Jimenez 和 Troy Tulowitzki 也不错 Jason Heyward, 和 Jair Jurrjens 或是 Tommy Hanson 可能可以搭配的很好 这些都是不错的组合... Conclusion The 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers are, fittingly, an impressive team on the surface. The club enters 2010 in a very strong position to win a middling NL West. The Dodgers might have the finest group of outfielders in the game, and Kershaw, Billingsley and Broxton are a ferocious trio of young arms. But there is trouble lurking. An injury to an outfielder or key pitcher would present a serious risk to the club's bid to win its third straight division crown. 2010 年的道奇会是一个令人印象深刻的球季 他们有很大的机会赢得国联西区的冠军 他们有很强力的外野手，有着青春肉体的投手 不过一个外野手或是重要的投手受伤有可能就会影响整个战局 There are established young performers in Kemp, Kershaw, Billingsley, Broxton and Ethier. There are position players whose careers are, if not yet in danger, surely on the protected species list: Loney and Martin. There are several veterans whose sustained health and performance are vital to the team's success. There is Manny Ramirez, who gets a category all to himself. 年轻的选手也正准备要展露头角，他们都在自己的位置上扮演重要的角色 而 Loney 和 Martin 各是需要特别注意的 他们的健康和表现早已成为球队胜利的关键 还有个 Manny Ramirez 在呢！ And then there are the McCourts. The hope in Chavez Ravine is that the product on the field is so good that talk circling around the Dodgers can focus on the reason the club exists: to compete for World Series championships. However, if injury, regression or stalled development tanks the club, you can bet that the daily workings of the McCourt divorce will overshadow quiet developments on the baseball front. The 2010 season might go just as its preceding offseason went: noteworthy for all the wrong reasons. 然而 McCourts 的风波可能还是会影响到球队 但对於道奇而已，只需要专心去打好每场比赛，赢得世界冠军 But this Dodger lifer has hope, as should all. Odds are strong that September will, at the very least, matter. And the potential is there for meaningful baseball to continue into November. This club has it all. Top-shelf ceiling. Ugly downside. A scandalous side story which shows no signs of quieting. The Dodgers are, truly, Hollywood's team. The only guarantee? The most gorgeous sunsets in baseball. (这段是在做一些局，不过我不确定要怎麽翻才好，简单的说是大家等着看 0.0) -- ◢◢◤██▌▌█ ▂▄▃▂ ──┬┬╮ ██▉▇▇▇▇▇ ◢ｈｉ～ ◣ ├┼┤ ██▉▇▇██▇ ◢ 我是匡 ├┼┤ ██▉▇▇██▇ ◥ ◤ ├┼┤ ◥◥◣▇▇▇▇▇ ├┼┤ ◢◤ ▅▄▄ ∮lovemama ────┴┴╯ --

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