标题: 时间: Sat Apr 3 02:32:13 2010 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-san-francisco-giants5/ http://ppt.cc/xafO Five questions: San Francisco Giants by Steve Treder March 25, 2010 Ah, yes! It's that time of year again, when we dust off our (oh so murky) crystal ball and do our best at sizing up just what might be in store for Los Gigantes de San Francisco. 是的，又到了一年一度的这个时候，该是我们把(脏到爆的)水晶球擦亮，用力预测巨人队 今年成绩的时刻。 Last year's ball club turned out to be among the most positive surprises in either league; they most definitely far surpassed the expectations of yours truly, coming in at 88-74, good for third place in the dramatically improved NL West. Whether they can build upon that improvement (or even sustain that level of performance) in 2010 is, of course, a function of how various looming questions may be answered. Let's consider the most pressing five. 去年本队成为两联盟中的最大惊奇，他们打破大多数人的预测，缴出88胜74败，在水准显 着提升的国联西区排名第三的好成绩。他们在2010年是否能更上层楼(或者只是维持水准) 当然是影响着浮现的问题，答案变化程度的一个因素。在此提出最关键的五个问题。 1. How will the Dubious Duo do at the keystone? 中间内野手最少会有啥表现？ A double play combo consisting of Edgar Renteria at shortstop and Freddy Sanchez at second base could very well be considered among the finest in the game—it could be, that is, if it's still, say, 2006. Unfortunately I believe we've made it all the way to 2010, and thus this particular keystone pairing is, well, uncertain, in a Brian Sabean Special sort of way. 今年的双杀二人组是由游击手Edgar Renteria以及二垒手Freddy Sanchez组成，他们会是 顶尖─如果你是说2006年的话。很可惜的现在2010年球季要开打了，而他们两个的表现在 Brian Sabean流的补强下，变得难以预测。 In terms of raw age, neither of these guys is ancient, although Renteria at 33 and Sanchez at 32 are both well beyond the normal prime years for middle infielders. The larger issue is that neither was healthy last year: Renteria was dogged by a sore elbow, and neither hit nor fielded well, while Sanchez spent the second half of '09 hobbling on a bad knee. Both underwent surgery in the offseason; Sanchez in fact went under the knife twice, dealing with the knee and a shoulder problem as a bonus. 单就年纪来讲，他们不是老人，虽然33岁的Renteria与32岁的Sanchez过了人们眼中中间内 野手的巅峰期。不过更大的问题是他们在去年不算健康：Renteria被手肘酸痛搞得打击守 备都烂了，Sanchez下半季因膝盖伤势有一场没一场的打。两人在季後都动了手术， Sanchez还加码搞定了肩伤。 Sanchez hasn't played an inning of spring training and won't be available until mid-April at the earliest. Renteria has been playing this spring, but he has a lot of improving to do on his 2009 production to even be considered average. All in all, things will have to turn out as well as they possibly can for the Giants to avoid problems at one or both of the crucial middle infield positions in 2010. Sanchez春训没有上场，且最少到四月中才能上。Renteria春训有上，但从2009年来看他 离至少被视为平均还有很大的进步空间。总的来说，他们两个得尽可能改变，避免今年巨 人在其一甚至两个位置上受到困扰。 2. What's the story in right field? 右外野又如何？ The archetypal right fielder is a big guy: Whether or not he possesses the position's ideal of a cannon arm, he's almost always a power hitter. Very often the right fielder is among his team's top run producers, a core-of-the-order slugger. 典型的右外野手是球队的要角，不论如何理想上他得是的强肩犯，也几乎要是豪打者。右 外野手常是球队的得分重心，是中心棒次的打者。 But not for the Giants of the current era. This franchise hasn't had a right fielder who hit as many as 20 home runs in a season since, get this, 2003, and only one since then (Moises Alou in 2006) has delivered as many as 15. The 2009 Giants presented yet another distinctly inoffensive alignment in right field: Randy Winn and Nate Schierholtz combined for 151 starts at the position, while delivering a total of seven homers and 50 RBIs. 但不光是现在，整个巨人在2003年前没有打过20支全垒打的右外野手，在那之後也只有一 次(2006年的Moises Alou)曾经打到15支。2009年当然又是这样的组合：Randy Winn与Nate Schierholtz共先发了151场比赛，总共打出7支全垒打与50分打点。 Sabean's action in addressing this issue for 2010 consisted of letting Winn go, and, well, nothing else. So the 26-year-old Schierholtz is back; despite modest major league production so far, the position is his to lose. Schierholtz brings some impressive tools to the challenge: He does have the requisite howitzer, and he's a big fellow who runs reasonably well (though he hasn't shown particular defensive aptitude). He has a track record of consistent high-average, moderate-power hitting at every level of the minors, and the kind of doubles power Schierholtz demonstrated as a youngster often develops into home run power later. Sabean今年对此的解决之道为，放走Randy Winn，然後，下面没有了。所以26岁的 Schierholtz取得了位置，虽然到目前为止打得零零落落，他还是稳居先发。Schierholtz 有不错的技能挑战这个位置，他算是小炮，也是一个灵活的大个子(虽然他还没展现特殊的 防守天份)。过往成绩显示他在小联盟的每一层级能够维持高打率，以及还可以的长打力， 而这种擅长打深远二垒打的年轻人，往往能够发展成拥有打全垒打的长打力。 Balanced against those positives is an amazing absence of strike zone discipline (more than once in 2009 Schierholtz swung through a pitch that plunked him in the back leg). One suspects that unless meaningful progress is made on the plate discipline, the power won't materialize, and while 26 isn't too old for it to begin to happen, it's getting darn close. 有好就有坏，与上述众多优点相对的，是缺乏好球带判断的显着缺点(2009年Schierholtz 不只一次对飞往他後脚的球挥棒)。一个假设是除非他在好球判断能大幅长进，长打能力是 长不出来的，这件事以26岁来说虽然不算老，但也差不多了。 The only real competitors for the job currently on the Giants' roster (a late-spring pickup of someone like Jermaine Dye isn't out of the question) are John Bowker, another 26-year-old left-handed hitter with impressive minor league credentials but not much in the majors, 29-year-old Fred Lewis, whose all-around mediocrity lost him the starting left field job in 2009, and speedy 28-year-old jack-of-all-trades Eugenio Velez—and if Velez ends up spending a lot of time in right field, then the Giants will be pulling off their most ardent head-scratcher yet. 现在巨人阵中的真正竞争者(在春训结束前找来某个像Jermaine Dye的家伙也是解决之道) 计有John Browker，另一位也是小时了了的26岁左打者，因为什麽都很鸟而在09年失去先 发工作的29岁左外野手Fred Lewis，还有速度型、28岁且没没无闻的Eugenio Velez─而如 果Velez大部分时间站右外野，巨人可能会更加的头痛。 3. How will the young southpaw starters fare? 年轻的左腕呢？ The Giants' starting rotation for much of 2010 will likely contain two young left-handers who represent the opposite ends of the spectrum of great potential: Jonathan Sanchez (who, to be sure, at 27 isn't all that young anymore), who's teased the Giants for several years with dazzling stuff and erratic results, and Madison Bumgarner, who's just 20, but who's torched the minor leagues so thoroughly that he appears nearly ready for the majors. (Just this week, the Giants optioned Bumgarner to Triple-A, but he will almost certainly be back soon.) 巨人2010年的先发轮值大概会有两位年轻左投，他们潜力光谱上代表两种极端。Jonathan Sanchez(他已经27岁不算年轻了)，以不稳定的投球内容以及大起大落的成绩玩弄巨人球团 於手掌心，以及才20岁的Madison Bumgarner，已经彻底杀爆小联盟，似乎已经准备赢项挑 战。(就在这周，巨人把Bumgarner送到3A，但他应该很快就会回到大联盟。) The ceiling for each (particularly Bumgarner) is sky-high. But, alas, neither has any record of consistent major league success, and if there is any creature on the planet less dependable than a young pitcher, it's a young pitcher with brilliant potential. 他们的极限都很高，但是，唉，没有一个人能维持他们在大联盟的荣景，而如果有比年轻 投手更不可靠的生物，那就是高天赋的年轻投手。 Either or both could get hurt or otherwise implode. Sanchez could join the legion of great-stuff throwers who never put it together, and Bumgarner could join the legion of what-might-have-beens. But still, there is a real possibility of true brilliance from both. Where these two land upon the spectrum from nothing to all may well make the difference in how the Giants do in 2010, and quite a ways beyond. 他们可能会因受伤或其他因素毁掉。Sanchez可能会变成一大票能够丢出好球种，却从来没 投出成绩的投手们的其中一员，Bumgarner则可能成为「想当年他...」的投手。但，他们 也有很大的机会变得很好。他们会落在从坏掉到完全体构成的光谱上的哪一点，将对2010 年，甚至之後的巨人产生影响。 4. Will the run production be any less meager? 得分还会更低吗？ The Giants won 88 games in 2009 despite featuring the worst offense in the league. (Those who might interpret the team's low-scoring tendency as an artifact of its home ballpark are looking at some very out-of-date data; AT&T Park hasn't played as a friendly environment for pitchers in many years.) While a win is a win and a loss is a loss, regardless of how it's created, sustaining a successful ball club without even as much as a league-average performance in one half of the inning or the other is a most difficult act. Balance imparts flexibility, while all the eggs in one basket imparts vulnerability. 巨人在09年攻击虽然破烂，还是赢了88场。(把低得分趋势归咎於球场的人资讯已经过时了 AT&T球场已经不是投手球场很久了。)虽然赢就是赢输就是输，可以不管是怎麽来的，但要 以其中半局连联盟平均都不到的表现，维持球队的胜场，是最为困难的事。攻守均衡可使 球队较为灵活，把鸡蛋放在同一个篮子则会导致翻船。 San Francisco's offense in 2009 presented one extraordinarily good hitter (the phenomenal 22-year-old Pablo Sandoval) and, effectively, nothing else. The remedy Sabean has endeavored to provide for 2010 consists of acquiring so-so 33-year-old veteran Aubrey Huff as the new first baseman and so-so 35-year-old veteran Mark DeRosa as the new left fielder. While it's a measure of the remarkable offensive weakness of those positions on the '09 Giants that Huff and DeRosa will likely bring upgrades in run production, neither is truly a good hitter by the standards of first basemen and left fielders, and moreover their age suggests meaningful injury risk. 巨人09年的攻击显现的是一个超好的打者(22岁超乎常人的Pablo Sandoval)，还有，简单 来说，又没了。Sabean为今年球季努力找来的补强有，打得普普的33岁老将Aubrey Huff担 任一垒手，以及打得普普的35岁老将Mark DeRosa担任左外野手。这些位置是09年巨人攻击 主要的弱点，Huff与DeRosa的加盟理应为得分带来助益，但他们在那些位置上都不算真的 打得很好，还有他们的年龄也代表显着的受伤风险。 Sabean's other major move was to re-sign 35-year-old veteran catcher Bengie Molina. While Molina is a decent hitter for a catcher, he isn't a good one, and moreover his presence serves to block 23-year-old rookie Buster Posey— universally regarded as the best-hitting catching prospect in the game today, almost certainly a better hitter than Molina right now. Only the Giants, it seems, would find a way to do something like this. Sabean另外一个主要的补强是与35岁的老捕手Begie Molina续约。Molina以捕手来说攻击 不错，但还不算好，而且留下他也挡住23岁的新秀Buster Posey─宇宙公认现今最好的攻 击捕手，几乎现在就肯定比Molina还要好。好像只有巨人队，才会想到这麽做。 What it means is that while the Giants' offense won't likely be any worse than it was in 2009 (one might well ask, "How could it?"), the probability of it being much better isn't high. Which means the team's pitching staff will once more shoulder an exceptionally heavy burden. Which leads to the final question ... 现阶段这代表巨人的攻击不会像09年那麽糟(当然有人会问，「怎麽说？」)，但要大幅进 步的可能性不高。这也代表投手们又要肩负重责，也迎来了下个问题... 5. How long can the young aces remain injury-free? 健康的年轻王牌荣景还能维持多久？ Let's face it: Injuries are a part of every sport, baseball certainly included. It's just the nature of athletic competition; as the body is pushed to the breaking point, well, sometimes it's going to break. Any team in any sport that makes plans based on an assumption of zero injuries is a team doomed to disappointment. 面对吧：受伤是各种运动的一部分，棒球当然不例外。这也是运动员竞争的一部分，当身 体迈向临界点时，有时就是会爆。每项运动的每支球队以「零受伤」为前提拟定计画时， 注定会迈向失败。 Thus the 2010 Giants seem particularly precariously poised. The team in the field is hugely dependent upon 30-somethings, a most injury-vulnerable demographic, and the ball club's strength is heavily focused upon two great young starting pitchers: 26-year-old Tim Lincecum and 25-year-old Matt Cain. 而2010年的巨人队尤其岌岌可危。这支球队的野手大量仰赖30多岁，处在易受伤之龄的球 员，战力重心几乎放在两位年轻强投─26岁的Tim Lincecum以及25岁的Matt Cain身上。 Both of these exceptional young right-handers have made their mark not only on the basis of their effectiveness (wonderful as that has been, obviously and especially in Lincecum's case), but also on the basis of their stalwart durability: Neither ever misses a dang start. Lincecum may be a hippie gymnast-flexible prodigy, and Cain a strong-as-an-ox old-schooler, but the bottom line is that both have simply never gotten hurt. Ever. At all. Period. Not once. Never. Ever. 两位深受期待的年轻右投都已经打出成绩，不只是他们的投球效率(可说是无懈可击，以 Lincecum来说尤其明显)，还有他们的耐操程度：两位都没有错过任何先发。Lincecum也 许是怪姿势的天才，Cain则是典型的「耐操好档」，但回归基本来说他们都没受过伤。从 来没有，就这样。不是只有一次，而是从不。(按：作者在下面的评论回答球迷，他是有点 过度神话Lincecum，因为去年季末Lincecum下背部受伤错过一场先发，但他还是十分耐操) We Giants fans fervently hope that this will always be the case. But we'd be fools (and yes, I know, we're Giants fans so that may already be settled) if we expected this to always be the case. At what point either or both of these remarkable workhorses demonstrate normal susceptibility to injury is the point at which the Giants are likely to struggle. 巨人球迷热烈希望这会持续下去，但如果我们一直这样期望就是笨蛋(是的，因为我是巨人 迷，所以可能已经被公认了)。不论何时，要假设这两位或其中一位优质工作马会受伤，对 巨人球团来说是很困难的。 Steve Treder can often be found spending way too much time talking baseball at Baseball Primer. He welcomes your questions and comments via e-mail. Steve Treder是Baseball Primer的作家。 --

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