Five questions: Atlanta Braves by John Beamer and Alex Remington April 02, 2010 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-atlanta-braves5/ or http://tinyurl.com/y9aq34z After 14 years of winning their division (and yes, that excludes the strike-shortened 1994 season when the Expos were top of the standings) the Atlanta Braves haven't come close to playing October ball. This season figures to be the end of an era for the Tomahawks as Bobby Cox spits out his chewing tobacco for the final time. Can the the Braves win for Bobby? Will Jason Heyward mash 75 homers? Can Billy Wagner strike out every hitter he faces? These questions and more are answered below. 在勇士队14次赢得分区冠军之後(喔是的，除了1994年罢工缩水球季之外，该年结束时 分区第一是博览会队)，勇士队就没有接近季後赛过了。而今年被认为是Bobby Cox执教鞭 的最後一年。勇士队能够为了Bobby赢球吗？Jason Heyward可以轰个75发吗？ Billy Wagner可以K掉他面对的每一个打者吗？这些问题将在下头一个一个回答。 译者按： 1.1991-2005这15年间勇士队赢得14次分区冠军，这个纪录和Bobby Cox本身都是个传奇。 2.Tomahawk是印第安战斧，这里应该是指教头Bobby Cox，而为什麽要讲"把嘴里嚼的烟草 吐掉"我猜想跟他那大联盟纪录的151次ejection有关系。(有理解错误请指正) 3.有关Tomahawk、Tomahawk Chop(战斧之歌)的由来，有兴趣的人可以看底下这篇文章。 http://tinyurl.com/3x2xch To mix things up a bit I've teamed up with Alex Remington, who writes about the Braves at Chop-n-Change. Hang on—here we go. 为了整合度更好一点，我跟Alex Remington合作，他在Chop-n-Change网站有写一些关於 勇士队的文章。等一下--好我们开始。 Chop-n-Change：http://www.chop-n-change.com/ 1. What production can we expect from Jason Heyward in 2010? 1. 我们在2010到底能期待Jason Heyward缴出甚麽样的成绩？ Alex: As I wrote elsewhere, I think that Heyward's superior control of the strike zone will lead him to exceed the expectations of most of the offseason projection systems, nearly all of which expect him to hit fewer than 20 homers with an OPS right around .800. I'm expecting a tick better on all those counts. Most importantly, though, he stabilizes the Braves' right field situation, where he'll be far, far, far better than the .262/.305/.409 that Jeff Francoeur produced from 2007 to 2009, and isn't likely to be a downgrade defensively. Alex：正如我之前在别的地方(http://tinyurl.com/yg3w44b )写的，我认为Heyward的 杰出好球带控制能力会让他超越大部分预测系统所预计的成绩(注)，几乎全部的预测成绩 都预计他只能缴出低於20HR、OPS.800左右的成绩。我目前预期他能打得比这个数字好些。 尽管如此，最重要的是他让勇士队的右外野稳多了，他可以打得比07-09年Jeff Francoeur 的.262/.305/.409好太太太多了，而且几乎不可能守得比他还要糟糕。 注：预测成绩在这边指的是John Sickels的这篇http://tinyurl.com/ybdt7ty 140 games, 490 at-bats, 77 runs, 137 hits, 31 doubles, 3 triples, 19 homers, 58 walks, 89 strikeouts, 12 steals, 4 caught stealing, slash line .280/.361/.473, .834 OPS 而四大预测给他的分别成绩是： Bill James: 542 at-bats, .303/.371/.465, .836 OPS CHONE: 310 at-bats, .258/.324/.416, .740 OPS ZIPS: 448 at-bats, .275/.341/.429, .770 OPS PECOTA: 423 plate appearances, .272/.343/.450, .793 OPS Sickels本人是稍微悲观地偏向ZIPS的预测成绩。 Of course, he isn't guaranteed for immediate success. Even Matt Wieters, who once stole second, third and the shortstop's hat on the same pitch, had an adjustment period last year before catching fire in the last month of the season. While Heyward's floor is probably higher than Francoeur's baseline, it may not necessarily be that much higher. So he'll be a welcome improvement for the Braves, and he'll likely post Nick Johnson-like P/PA numbers, but he won't be an offensive catalyst just yet. 当然，无法保证他一定能成功。就算是曾经在投手投一球的时间内同时盗二垒、三垒还 顺便摸走游击手的帽子(注1)的Matt Wieters，在上个球季最後一个月的大肆开火之前， 也都经过一段调整时间。不过Heyward可能连地板(注2)都高过Francoeur，或许也不需要 那麽高。所以他对勇士阵容将会是受欢迎的升级，而且他有可能缴出类似Nick Johnson 的P/PA数，但是还不会是勇士队的攻击催化剂。 注1：我无法想像这会是Wieters能做到的事，所以我想Alex是故意酸了一下Wieters。 注2：相对於天花板(ceiling)，我不知道翻成哪个字比较恰当。 John: There's no doubt Heyward is good—you've just got to look at his spring training stats. His line is a massive .347/.467/.490 and some of his home runs were true monsters. The most impressive thing is his ability to get on base. Make no mistake: This kid has a 20:20 batting eye, and unlike Francoeur, whose place Heyward will inherit as face of the franchise, he'll walk enough to get to Everest and back (aside: for goodness sake, Jason, don't do any Delta ads). That should mean at the very least he'll survive in the bigs. John：Heyward很棒是不用怀疑的--去看看他的春训成绩就知道了。.347/.467/.490的超棒 三围，而且他有几只全垒打像是怪物一样。来确定一下：这小子有着20:20的选球眼，而且 不像Francoeur，Heyward取代他是要来成为下一个王朝的门面的。他可以选到数量足够让 他来回圣母峰一趟的保送(题外话：看在老天份上，Jason，不要拍任何Delta的广告(注)) 。这些都显示最少最少这小子都会在大联盟生存下来。 注：我不知道Delta是不是指Delta Air Lines美国航空公司，而且我不知道这家公司跟 Heyward有甚麽关系...orz He also tops most prospect lists, which is encouraging but by no means guarantees success. Remember who the last Brave was to be the No. 1 rated prospect in all of baseball? Yes ... Andy Marte. His career line of .216/.272/.352/ is anything but magical and is a stark reminder of how quickly baseball talent turns from boom to bust. However, let's not kid ourselves. Heyward's minor league career has already been on a different planet than Marte's. 他也是被报导排名胜过大部分人的顶级新秀，这很令人振奋，但却不保证一定成功。 还记得勇士上一位被认为是NO.1新秀的人吗？是的...Andy Marte。.216/.272/.352的生涯 成绩一点也不梦幻而且是个血淋淋的警告，告诉我们棒球天份从露出光芒到消失不见可以 是如何地快速。尽管如此，不开自己玩笑。Heyward的小联盟成绩跟Marte是完全不同的。 Given the weakness that the Braves have in the outfield, it wouldn't be too surprising to see Heyward top the pile come the end of the year. One thing is certain: It is unlikely the Braves will challenge for the division without a productive Heyward. 考量到勇士的外野是如此孱弱，Heyward在今年结束後成为外野举足轻重的角色是不会太 令人惊讶的。有一件是肯定的，缺少崛起的Heyward的话，勇士是不太可能在他们分区挑 战分区冠军的。 2. Is Wagner going to dominate the ninth? 2. Wagner会能够终结第九局吗？ Alex: Mariano Rivera's contemporaneous career has obscured just how good he's been, but Wagner has been one of the most consistent and excellent relievers of the modern closer era—as Mac Thomason has written, "There aren’t many relievers, ever, who have been better than Wagner." Alex：在同时期的Mariano Rivera表现之下，Wagner曾经有多棒就被人忽略了，但是 Wagner一直是现在终结者史上最稳定也最棒的其中一名--就如同Mac Thomason写的一样， "没有多少後援投手"曾经"表现得比Wagner好过。" Wagner has had exactly one bad year in the major leagues: 2000, when he posted a 6.18 ERA in 27.2 innings before going on the DL and eventually undergoing elbow surgery. That is the only time in his major league career that he had an ERA over 3.00 or a K/9 under 10. Wagner过去有个很糟糕的一季：2000年在他进DL之前，他在27.2局里留下了6.18ERA的成绩 ，最终去动了手肘手术。这是他大联盟生涯中唯一一个球季ERA超过3或是K/9低於10。 It was also, prior to 2009, the only time he'd ever pitched fewer than 47 innings in a season. Then, of course, he blew out his elbow again, but came off Tommy John surgery just in time to throw upper-90s heat in September to secure a one-year payday. When he's been healthy, he's never been anything short of excellent. If he's healthy, there's little reason to doubt that he can be excellent again, especially considering the year that the 41-year-old Trevor Hoffman just had in Milwaukee. 同时，这也是在2009年之前他唯一一次单季投球局数少於47局。然後，当然就是他又操坏 他的手肘，但他成功从TJ手术中复原然後及时在九月展现出他的high-90s火球，为他保住 那一年的薪水。当他从前健康的时候，除了杰出没有别的能够形容他。如果现在的他是健 康的，没甚麽理由可以去怀疑他再度拿出杰出的表现，特别是考虑到去年41岁的Trevor Hoffman在酿酒人的演出。 If he's healthy. After all, he's a 38-year-old lefty coming off his second elbow surgery. He's a physical freak—an undersized righty who can somehow throw 100 mph with his left hand—but even physical freaks can't stretch their tendons forever. Tommy John surgery is viewed as a relatively safe procedure, but it's not foolproof. Wagner had a nice stretch run in 2009 and has pitched well in the spring of 2010, but his arm will be monitored closely. If he goes down, the Braves will rely on their setup duo, fellow Tommy John returnee Peter Moylan and the 40-year-old Takashi Saito. If the Braves can get 150 innings out of that trio, the late innings will be well in hand. If not, they could be in trouble. 如果他是健康的。毕竟现在是个38岁，刚从他的第二次手肘手术中复原的左投。他是个 体能怪物--一个体型较小的右投可能有办法用左手投个100mph的速球--但是即使是体能怪 物也不能够永远拉长他的韧带。Tommy John手术被认为是个相对安全的手术，但并非万无 一失。Wagner在2009年的韧带伸展状况良好同时2010春训目前为止投得也不错，但他的手 臂仍将会受到严密的追踪。如果他倒下来了，勇士将仰赖他们的两位SU，同样是开过TJ的 Peter Moylan和40岁的斋藤隆。如果勇士能从这三个人身上拿个150局，那後段局数就尽在 掌握之中。如果不行，那就麻烦大了。 John: Certainty. That is what a great closer gives you. When did the Braves last have certainty in the ninth? In 2004, when John Smoltz was at the back end of the rotation. Since then the Braves have wheeled out sub-standard closers: Dan Kolb, Kyle Farnsworth, Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano ... there's no certainty there. At least Soriano and Gonzalez can pitch ... day to day you can't be sure if they'll be healthy. John：确实是如此。这就是一个很棒的终结者能够给你的。上一次勇士能够拥有这样在 第九局的确实感是甚麽时候的事？在2004年，当John Smoltz当轮值後盾的时候。从那之 後，勇士就换过一个个标准以下的终结者：Dan Kolb,Kyle Farnsworth,Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano(注)...等，就没有那样的令人放心了。至少Soriano跟Gonzalez还能投... 以天为单位计算，你根本不能确定他们是健康的。 注：他把M-Gon跟R.Soriano讲进去，在底下的common就立刻被讲话了XD 他有回应说并不是说这两只不好，只是没"那麽"好...(sub-standard惹的祸) Certainty is what the Braves hope to get from Wagner. Sure he has been far from healthy over the last couple of years. But last year, after Tommy John surgery, he did well at Fenway Park. His heat was in the mid- to high-90s and he looked like his old self. I'm optimistic that Wagner will work out well for the Braves. 这种确定感就是勇士希望能从Wagner身上得到的。在过去他健康的几年里他当然是有这样 的能力。不过最近几年，动过TJ手术之後，在Fenway Park是投得不错的。 他的火球大概在mid-到high-90s之间，而且看起来就跟过去的他一样。 我对他在勇士队的投球抱持乐观态度。 Let's go through the facts. First, Wagner is a seriously good pitcher. His career ERA is 2.39; his K/BB is 3.9 and his K/9 is 12. Second, despite being on the DL he is STILL a seriously good hurler. As Alex mentioned, the only time that Wagner has had an ERA over 3.00 was in 2000, and that was when we was hurt. You want me to prognosticate? He'll keep off the DL, put in a sub-3 ERA and get at least 30 saves. You heard it here! 让我们检视现实的数字。第一，Wagner绝对是一个好投手。他的生涯ERA是2.39，K/BB是 3.9而K/9是12。第二，尽管常进DL，他仍然绝对会是个好投手。就像Alex提到的，他唯一 ERA超过3的球季是在2000年，而那是在他(注)受伤的时候。你想要我预测吗？他会整季没 进DL，ERA低於3，拿到至少30次SV。你听到了喔！ 注：that was when "we" was hurt←我怀疑是he打成we... 3. How good is the rotation? 3. 轮值到底有多棒？ Alex: The Braves' 2009 Opening Day starter, Derek Lowe, was so unimpressive last year after signing a four-year, $60 million contract that the Braves spent most of the offseason fruitlessly trying to offload him. When it became clear that no one wanted him any more than the Braves did, they turned around and traded their best pitcher of 2009, Javier Vazquez, for Melky Cabrera and a flame-throwing teenager. Alex：勇士2009年开幕战的先发投手，Derek Lowe，在他签了张4年60M的合约之後，去年 表现是如此的不显眼，这让勇士在去年季後花了很多徒劳的时间尝试摆脱掉他。当没有任 何球队比当初勇士更想要他这个事实变得如此清晰之後，他们回头交易掉他们2009年最棒 的投手，Javier Vazquez，换来Melky Cabrera和一个火球年轻人。 After all that, Lowe's still a Brave, and he's not bad for the back of the rotation, where he and Kenshin Kawakami are still likely to deliver an ERA somewhere south of 4.50. Anything better than that will be gravy. 在那之後，Lowe还是勇士队的一员，不过他至少还是个不错的後段轮值投手，他跟川上 宪伸组成的後段轮值仍然可以提供大约差不多4.50的ERA。比这数字再好的话都算是惊喜 了。 That's because, as usual, the Braves' top three starters are terrific. Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens and Tim Hudson are all No. 1/No. 2 starters, and all look set to excel in 2010. Like Wagner, Hudson came back from Tommy John surgery last year, and like Wagner, he pitched quite well in the final months of the year. Jurrjens is likely to come back to earth a bit after 2010, when he had an ERA about a run less than the year before despite virtually identical components. But his 2008 was plenty good. And Hanson was simply dominant during the final months of the season, looking every bit like the ace he was predicted to be. He and Jurrjens might be the best under-24 one-two punch in baseball. 那是因为，正常来说，勇士的前三号先发非常棒。Tommy Hanson，Jair Jurrjens和Tim Hudson都是1号/2号的先发，而且这三人在2010看起来都更好了。就像Wagner，Hudson从 去年的TJ手术中回来。Jurrjens在2010数字可能会稍微没那麽好看，去年他跟差不多的投 手比较起来ERA整整低了一分。但他的2008也是很好的。然後Hanson在上季最後一个月只能 用完美压制来形容，看起来就如同被预测要成为的Ace一样。他跟Jurrjens可能是低於24岁 最棒的1/2号投手组合。 John: I like the Braves' rotation. Sure I'd rather have seen Lowe disappear rather than Vasquez, but that was never going to happen when Lowe still has three years left on his $60 million contract. Anyway, our old friend, regression to the mean, should help Braves fans get past their initial disappointment. John：我喜欢勇士的轮值。当然我宁愿看到Lowe消失而不是Vazquez，但考虑到他还有60M 合约剩下的三年要走完，要他消失是不可能的事。不管怎样，我们的这位老朋友将会回归 到生涯平均，这应该会让勇士迷们慢慢不像一开始这样失望。 Also, for the first time in many years, the Braves have a stable rotation that should hold together for a few years. Kawakami is only one year into his contract, Hudson re-upped in the offseason, and Jurrjens and Hanson, the young whippersnappers, are still pre-arb. This crew could hang together for three more years (although if Lowe has a good year he'll be offloaded). The last time the Braves had a stable rotation, with a solid top three ... yup, Smoltz, Glavine, Maddux. 而且，最近这麽多年来第一次，勇士拥有一个稳定而且能够维持好几年的轮值。川上他的 合约只有一年，Hudson在季後再度站起来，然後Jurrjens和Hanson，年轻的狂妄小子，仍 然还没有仲裁资格。这样的组成可以支撑三年或更久时间(虽然如果Lowe哪年投得好，他就 会被交易掉)。 上一次勇士队有稳定轮值，而且有强力前三号...嗯，Smoltz、Glavine、Maddux。 Now I'm not suggesting that the current trio is a patch on what may have been the best 1-2-3 in baseball. Nowhere near. But a look at the projections shows Jurrjens on a 3.80 ERA, Hudson with a 3.90 ERA and Hanson at a 3.50 ERA. On paper it sounds great—but then again most rotations do. One of these guys is bound to hit the DL at some stage and that is when the Braves will struggle. Who's the reserve starter at Turner Field? Jo-Jo Reyes? .... Please, no. 现在我还不会说这个三人组会是棒球史上最好的1/2/3号。事实上还差得远。但来看看预测 给这三个人的成绩，Jurrjens ERA 3.80，Hudson ERA 3.90，Hanson ERA 3.50。纸上讲看 起来当然不错--但大部分的轮值都是这样。要是这些人其中一个在哪一段时间进了DL，那 勇士就糟糕了。谁会是Turner Field预备的先发投手呢？Jo-Jo Reyes？拜托...不要。 4. Can Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus stay on the field? 4. Chipper Jones跟Troy Glaus可以留在球场上吗？ Alex: The pitching probably won't be the problem for the Braves. It's the offense. No regular slugged over .500 or hit 25 homers for the Braves in 2009, and there's a very good chance no one will in 2010 either, considering that Heyward won't turn 21 until August. The team is severely underpowered, and the No. 3 and No. 4 hitters are aging sluggers with injury problems. Alex：投手可能不会是勇士的问题。是打击。在2009球季没有一个勇士球员SLG超过.500 或是轰出超过25发HR，而且2010很有可能也是一个都没有，考虑到Heyward到8月前都还不 满21岁。这支队伍严重火力不足，而且阵中3、4棒还是老化中的炮手外带伤病问题。 Glaus and Jones were two of the best third basemen of the last decade, but they're both past their prime, and Glaus is trying to learn how to wear a first baseman's mitt, too. Glaus has played 149 games in three of the last five years, a total that Jones hasn't reached since 2003, but the fact is: Over the past seven years, Glaus is averaging 104 games played, and Chipper's averaging 131. (Over that same period, Jones is slugging .535, and Glaus is slugging .498.) When they've played, they've hit. They've just been off the field a lot. Glaus跟Jones是过去十年最棒的三垒手中的两位，但都已经过了巅峰期，而且Glaus目前 还在尝试学怎麽穿一垒手的手套。Glaus在过去5季当中的3季都至少出赛149场，这是个 Jones从2003年後就没有达到过的数字，但事实是：回顾过去七年，Glaus平均出赛104场， 而Chipper平均反而有131场。(同样的期间，Jones长打率有.535，而Glaus为.498) 当他们可以上场，他们可以打得很好。他们只是缺赛太多了。 If the Braves can get 1,000 combined at-bats out of their corner infielders, they'll have a decent middle of the order. The rest of the lineup is filled with pesky hitters with double-digit home run power: center fielder Nate McLouth, shortstop Yunel Escobar, second baseman Martin Prado, catcher Brian McCann (the Braves' best hitter in 2009), right fielder Heyward, and the left field platoon of Matt Diaz and Cabrera. None of them are automatic outs, but none of them is all that frightening, either. Without production from Jones and Glaus, the Braves will be playing a lot of 4-3 ballgames. 如果勇士可以从这两位角内野手得到总共1000个ABs，他们会有很好的中间打序。打线其他 地方充斥着不怎麽样、仅差不多双位数HR power的打者：中外野手Nate McLouth，游击手 Yunel Escobar，二垒手Martin Prado，捕手Brian McCann(勇士2009最佳打者)，右外野手 Heyward，然後左外野由Matt Diaz跟Cabrera轮替。其中没有一位是自动出局数，但也没有 一位是特别吓人的。没有Jones跟Glaus，勇士将会打出一大堆4分到3分的比赛。 John: Who the hell is asking these questions ... another health-related conundrum. Given Alex has done such a good job with his answer and I'm bored of talking about the DL I'll answer a different question, "Can Chipper Jones regain batting title form?". John：到底是谁问这些问题...另一个健康与否...难解的问题。既然Alex回答得那麽好， 而且我又厌烦不想讲跟DL有关的事情，我来回答一个不一样的问题，"Chipper能不能再度 拿回一个打击王title？" Chipper's demise has been predicted for years. Remember in 2004 when he went .248/.362/.485? Pundits were ready to pen an obituary to what even was at that point a stellar career. Since then Jones has accelerated: 2005 was .296/.412/.556 and then his average didn't drop below .300 until 2009, when he hit a disappointing .264/.388/.430. Can he bounce back once again? Chipper的衰退已经被预料到好几年了。还记得在2004年他打出了.248/.362/.485的成绩吗 ？专家们已经准备写一篇唱衰文说这样一个杰出的球员到底是发生甚麽事了。然而从那之 後Jones就回升了：2005是.296/.412/.556，然後打击率再也没低於.300过，直到2009年， 他打出令人失望的.264/.388/.430。他还能够再度反弹吗？ Unfortunately, the odds are more against him than last time. He's 38 years old and at this point in their careers many hitters see a sharp drop-off in performance. And it wasn't like he was especially unhealthy in 2009. Sure he had some knocks and niggles, but he started 143 games—the most since 2003. 很不幸地，这次不利数据比上次更强烈对他持反对意见。他已经38岁而且在这个年纪很多 球员表现出剧烈的衰退。而且看起来并不像是他在09年特别不健康。当然他有受到一些 撞击或是小伤，但他先发了143场比赛--从2003年以来最多的一年。 However, his batting eye is as sharp as a fox's, as evidenced by his ability to get on base at a .388 clip. That has a lot of value even if his arms can't deliver the power they used to. My admiration for Jones as a player has grown this season as he has confounded the baseball community with his approach at the plate. 尽管这样，他的选球眼依然犀利得跟狐狸一样，证据是他特别高的.388上垒率。这很有帮 助，即使现在他的手臂已经无法再展现出过去的power。我对Jones身为一个球员的赞扬( http://tinyurl.com/y8pj64u )在这一季更高因为他公开说明自己在打击区的策略实在令 人惊叹(注)。 注：这边不确定有没有翻错 The many projections figure that Jones should hit for a .290/.400/.470 clip. I don't know about you, but I'll take that line right now. My head tells me he'll be closer to where he was last season, but that's still better than the rest of the Braves infield. 很多人预测认为Jones今年可以回头打出.290/.400/.470的成绩。我不太懂你们在想甚麽， 但我会暂时接受这个数字。我的理智告诉我他会比较接近去年的表现，但他还是比其他勇 士内野来得好就是了。 5. The biggie... can Bobby win again? 5. 最大条的问题...Bobby可以再度获胜吗？ Alex: The 2010 Braves look a lot like the teams that Cox took to the playoffs like clockwork: a deep, dominating starting rotation and a pesky but underpowered offense. They certainly look like one of the best four teams in the league, but while Cox certainly can escort this team to October, these Braves don't immediately look dominant enough to win it all. The Phillies return a terrific team with Roy Halladay at the fore, and the Marlins, Rockies, Cardinals, Dodgers and Giants all finished with better records than the Braves in 2009. Some of those wins may have been fluky—I'm looking at you, Ryan Franklin—but the Braves will have a lot of teams to leapfrog. Alex：2010年的勇士看起来跟Cox过去带进季後赛的勇士很像，一只照计画进行的球队： 一个很深、压制力强大的先发轮值和一个不怎麽样、power不太够的攻击打线。他们当然 看起来像是联盟中四只最好的球队之一，但就算Cox理所当然地把这支队伍送进十月份的 比赛，这些勇士们却不像能够立刻强大到够把比赛全都赢下来。费城人队有了 Roy Halladay站在前线立刻变身成一只超棒的球队，然後马林鱼、洛矶、红雀、道奇和 巨人在2009球季全都有比勇士好的战绩。当中有些或许有点靠运气--我就是在讲你， Ryan Franklin--但是勇士有好多队伍必须踩过去。 The Braves don't necessarily have more question marks than any other team— after all, just about every team has to caveat its chances against the likelihood of injury. The Braves had the third-best run differential in the NL last year, and they've had the best run differential in the Grapefruit League this spring. They're virtually guaranteed to score a lot more runs than they give up. But they won't bludgeon anyone to death—they'll win with pitching and singles. That may well be enough in the regular season, but it likely won't once October rolls around. 勇士并不会比起其他任何球队有更多的问号--毕竟，差不多每一只球队都必须警告自己 必须提防受伤的风险。勇士队上个球季有着国联第三好的得失分差，而这个春训在葡萄柚 联盟他们的得失分差是最好的。好像已经可以确定他们这一季能在得失分差上更上层楼。 但他们没办法敲昏任何一只队伍--他们必须靠投球和一垒安打赢球。那在正规季赛可能会 足够，但可能没办法在季後赛依样画葫芦。 John: I could write an essay on this, but I'll keep it short. The Braves were unlucky last year. They score a lot more runs than they gave up and should have ended up with a better record. The rotation should be an improvement despite the loss of Vasquez. Lowe will improve a bit, Hudson will replace Vasquez, and Hanson and Jurrjens are a year wiser. Although the bullpen is a weak spot, a healthy Wagner will covert a lot of close games if he is given the chance. And Heyward has the discipline and power to be a rock star in the outfield. John：我可以对这个问题写一篇专文，但我会讲得简短些。勇士队去年并不幸运。他们 得分比失分多而且应该有更好的战绩才对。尽管失去了Vazquez，轮值应该还是会比去年 进步。Lowe会稍微进步一点，Hudson会取代Vazquez，然後Hanson跟Jurrjens会更聪明。 虽然牛棚是个弱点，健康的Wagner将能应付(注)很多比分接近的比赛，如果他有机会的话 。而且Heyward纪律跟power都有，在外野会成为一位红牌球星。 注：我觉得原文把cover误植成covert了... If that happens, that I fancy their chances. If one of those factors goes off, then no way. The problem is that the NL East is probably the strongest division on the Senior Circuit. The Phillies have reached the last two World Series and, if anything, have upgraded with Doc Halladay over the offseason. The Mets have the talent but underperform and the Marlins are starting to up their payroll and still have a very talented bunch of ballplayers. 如果这些都发生，那麽我认为他们成功机率很大。如果哪一项因素不如人意，那就免谈了 。问题就在於国联东区可能是最强大的一区。费城人已经连续两年进到WS同时，若有的话 就是，在季後赛结束後成功得到Doc而升级了。大都会有天份但普遍表现不佳，马林鱼开始 往上增加他们的payroll而且仍然拥有一大堆非常具天份的球员。 It's Bobby Cox's last season in charge. You know he wants it—that is why Heyward is starting. Here is hoping that the Tomahawks can give one of the greatest managers in the game the send-off he deserves. Go Braves! 这是Bobby Cox最後一年的执教。你知道他很想要赢--这就是为什麽Heyward会先发的原因 。我在这边希望所有的小斧头们可以在比赛中给这位可能是最伟大的教头一个送别的、他 应有的勳章。冲吧!勇士队!! 有错欢迎指正喔~~ --

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