== Five questions: Texas Rangers == 德州游骑兵 2010 五大问 This could be the year the Rangers finally get over the hump. Of course, prognosticators have been saying something very similar ever since 2004, when Buck Showalter led a suddenly A-Rod-less Rangers team to an 89-73 record with a lineup that featured a quartet of under-30 infielders who were all capable of driving in 100 runs and hitting 30 homers. Rather than being the beginning of something special, though, it turned out to be more just more of the same. The Rangers never developed any pitching to go along with the offensive core, first baseman Mark Teixeira and second baseman Alfonso Soriano were eventually traded, the league figured out Hank Blalock and Showalter was shown the door. 今年可能是游骑兵终於要摆脱低潮大跃进的一年。当然啦~ 这句话自从2004年後， 每年季初都被预言者拿出来说一次。2004那年，总教练Showalter带领着少了A-Rod 的游骑兵打下了89胜73负的成绩。那时的游骑兵内野是四个不到30岁，却都有打出 单季30轰+100打点实力的重炮部队(详见注1.)。 注1. 2004年的游骑兵内野阵容与该季成绩。 1B Mark Teixeira (Age:24) 38HRs 118RBIs 2B Alfonso Soriano (Age:28) 28HRs 91RBIs 3B Hank Blalock (Age:23) 32HRs 110RBIs SS Michael Young (Age:27) 22HRs 99RBIs 超强的打击--这就是游骑兵给人的印象。然而球团这几年所做的，却只是让这印象 越来越深刻，却没有为这支以强悍打击为核心的队伍提升他们相对孱弱的投手阵容。 Teixeira和Soriano都被交易走了，Blalock的打击也被看破手脚，Showalter则被 球团扫地出门了。 It wasn't until last year that the Rangers would be back over the .500 mark at the end of a season. Once again, the Rangers are loaded with promise. Michael Young is the only significant player left over from that 2004 squad. Filling in the team around him is a group of players with seemingly endless talent, but with major questions marks. 游骑兵并不是到了去年才有实力打出超过五成胜率的球季。 我再强调一次: 游骑兵一直都是一支让球迷充满期待的球队。虽然2004年那恐怖的 内野四人众只剩下Michael Young还留在这里，但现在围绕着他的球员，似乎各个 都拥有无限大的天份，只是能不能在大联盟战场上证明出来，我们还得先打上问号。 1. Can the veterans stay healthy? 那些有经验的球员们能保持健康吗? Vladimir Guerrero and Rich Harden were unquestionably the biggest names to join the team in the offseason. If this were 2006, that would have been considered a coup. Instead, the Rangers get a version of Guerrero who will probably be relegated to DHing duties and a Harden who is practically guaranteed to miss at least a handful of starts. If the Rangers can get 500 plate appearances out of Guerrero, there's no reason to think he won't produce numbers any team would take from the DH spot: About 85 RBIs, maybe 20 homers and a batting average right around .300. Guerrero和Harden无疑是球队季後补强所获得的球员里名气最大的两位。如果现在 是2006年，那这补强简直是棒呆了! 可惜现在并不是2006年，游骑兵得到的是DH版 的Guerrero，还有保证每年会因伤错过至少五场比赛的Harden。 如果Guerrero打到500个打席以上，毫无疑问地，他能贡献给游骑兵的成绩绝对能 跟任何一支队伍的DH相提并论: 大概是20支全垒打、85分打点和三成左右的打击率。 Harden, on the other hand, is much more volatile. At one time considered to have some of the best stuff in all of baseball, he's missed so much time that it seems pointless to even consider that anymore. Even when he's healthy, he's shown precious little ability to work late into games. Although he made 51 starts the past two years, he's averaged about 5.2 innings per outing. His move back to the American League doesn't promise to make his life any easier. Still, he strikes out better than 10 batters per nine innings pitched... which may be part of the reason he can't work deep into games. If the Rangers figure out how to coax 200 innings out of Harden, they may have finally found the ace they've been looking for. 至於Harden呢... 他的不确定性就更大了。他曾经被认为是全联盟的投手里，拥有 最棒的资质的投手之一，但他因伤错过了太多的比赛，而难以让人再次想起他曾经 拥有这麽好的资质。就算是在他健康的时候，你也很难看到他能在比赛中投到後段 局数。即使过去两年他有51场的先发，他平均一场只能投到5.2局。重回美国联盟 投球并不保证会让他的日子更好过。当然啦~ 他的K功依旧犀利，平均每9局能投出 10次以上的三振，但这也可能是造成他(用球数过多)无法把投球局数拉长的原因。 如果游骑兵能够小心地使用Harden，让他能投到200局以上的话，那游骑兵将拥有 他们寻觅了多年的王牌投手。 Then there's Josh Hamilton. Amazingly, the soon-to-be 29-year-old is barely entering his fourth major league season. A year removed from what many thought was the beginning of a special career, the questions about Hamilton now surround his ability to stay on the field for entirely different reasons than those that plagued his minor league career. For the second time in three years, he played in just over half of his team's games. Of equal concern was the .160 drop in OPS from 2008-09. We have him projected at .808 this year, which seems conservative, but if he manages the nearly 550 plate appearances we project, his numbers should be fine. 接下来我们来谈谈Josh Hamilton... 喔~ 这真是太神奇了，杰克! 这个快满29岁 的家伙才仅仅正要开始他的第四个大联盟球季而已。一年前，大家想到的通常是他 那特别的生涯起步。一年过去了，现在大家关心的是他是否有能力让自己留在场上 (我是指保持健康之类的事)而不是他在小联盟时期那些造成他离开球场的荒唐事。 这三年里，他有两年错过了球队一半以上的比赛。还有一件同样值得我们注意的事， 就是他的OPS在2008到2009年下降了.160。我们预测他今年会打出OPS.808的成绩， 这个预测似乎有些保守，但如果他能如同我们预测地打到550打席，他的成绩应该 会是OK的。 2. Will the young guns fulfill their promise? 这些年轻投手们能符合期待吗? Even if Harden does miraculously fulfill his promise, the Rangers will need at least one of their two young flamethrowers to emerge as stalwarts of the rotation. Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz have been dazzling scouts for a couple years now and their continued development may dictate the Rangers' long-term future more than any other players. 就算Harden奇蹟似地达成球团的期待(像是先发30场或投满200局之类的)，游骑兵 仍需要他们的两大火球少年(Holland和Feliz)至少有一个能长大，并且在先发轮值 中独当一面。Holland和Feliz早就让许多球探惊艳不已，他们的持续成长也将影响 游骑兵球团对於球队未来的长期规划。 Holland flashed brilliance at points last season (a 10-strikeout, 8.2-inning gem on July 4 and a three-hit shutout two starts later were the standouts), but to call his rookie campaign uneven may be too kind. He finished with an ERA of 6.12 and worked more than six innings only four times in 21 starts. He allowed five or more runs on eight occasions, including a consecutive stretch of five such incidents. But, he's still just 23, left-handed and will be given every opportunity to rebound. Holland去年有过几次亮眼的表现--像是国庆日8.2局投出10K，两场先发後又投出 一场三安打完封。但是，如果说他的菜鸟年表现只是「表现不稳」还太仁慈了，他 最後缴出自责分率6.12的成绩，21场先发里只有4场投超过6局，有8场比赛失分在 5分以上，还发生过连续5场失分在5分以上这种鸟事。不过他才23岁又是左投，他 会获得每一个可以让他翻身的机会。 Feliz also flashed brilliance. In his case, though, his shortcomings were due to lack of playing time, as opposed to uneven performances. In just 31 major league innings—all out of the bullpen—Feliz struck out 39 and allowed just 24 baserunners. He's been a starter for most of his minor league career and will fight for a spot in the big league rotation. Feliz同样表现杰出，投了31局(全都是後援出场)，K掉39个人，只让24个打者上垒。 但这只是小样本，我们也没办法藉此观察他的稳定性。他在小联盟大部分是以先发 身分出赛，而他也将竞争大联盟的先发轮值位置。 3. What kind of production will they get up the middle? 年轻选手的成长会如何呢? Going through the middle of the diamond, there's much to like. Ian Kinsler has established himself as probably the second best offensive second baseman in baseball. Elvis Andrus played Gold Glove caliber defense at shortstop. Julio Borbon is considered one of the top rookies in baseball. Even at catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden, so far a bit disappointing, have potential. 来~ 看看场上的这些小夥子，他们真是太可爱了。Ian Kinsler已经展现他的实力， 而且他可能是全联盟攻击第二强的二垒手(Utley: 嘿~)。Elvis Andrus在游击区有 金手套级的守备，Julio Borbon被认为是最好的新秀之一。即使是目前让我们有点 失望的两位补手新秀Jarrod Saltalamacchia和Taylor Teagarden都有很好的潜力。 Unfortunately, each position has issues. Kinsler, for all his brilliance, has battled injuries his entire career. He played in 144 games last year —a career best—which is certainly a positive, but that's not exactly Cal Ripken, either. Andrus' glove will keep him in the lineup and his speed (33 steals) should help, but the Rangers would surely like to see an improvement on his OPS+ of 82. The same could be said for Borbon, who projects an anemic OPS of .687. The Rangers would love for one of their young catchers to seize the starting job. If past performance is any indication (they both project as sub-.700 OPS players), though, that could be more pick-your-poison than real battle. 可惜，每个位置都有他的问题。虽然Kinsler很棒，但他整个生涯都在跟伤痛搏斗。 去年他打了144场比赛--已经是生涯最多--这是个好现象，但很显然他不是像铁人 Cal Ripken那种选手。Andrus光靠手套和腿就可以让他稳站先发位置，但游骑兵仍 期待他那低到只有82的OPS+能够有所改善。同样的问题也发生在Borbon身上，今年 他被预测仅能打出OPS.687这种贫弱的成绩。游骑兵希望他们的两大捕手新秀其中 能有一人争取到固定的先发位置，但如果参考过去的数据(两人的OPS都不到.700)， 挑选先发捕手大概就像是「两种死法选一种」一样，毫无生机啊! 4. How will the ownership issue affect the product on the field? 球团经营权的问题会影响球员的场上表现吗? A year ago, Major League Baseball had to step in and start covering paychecks. I won't go as far as saying that it affected the players' production, but it certainly curbed the team's ability to acquire talent for a stretch run. At least twice this offseason, the team's sale to a group headed by Nolan Ryan was supposedly finalized. As of this writing, the deal is once again in limbo as MLB is apparently unhappy with the cash-to-debt ratio. Getting this all figured out may not have a huge impact on how the team starts. You can bet it will start to weigh on players if it drags on too long. Last year, the team didn't acquire a single impact player for the stretch run. You certainly can't lay all the blame there, but the team limped to a 29-31 record after the July 31 deadline and finished well out of a playoff spot. If nothing else, new ownership should provide the impetus to end what has become a 10-year playoff drought. 一年前，为因应全球不景气，大联盟球队也开始节约开支。我不会一言以蔽之地说 这样会影响球员的表现，但这的确限制了球团签下大约的能力。游骑兵老板想把球 队卖给以Nolan Ryan为首的集团，而在休赛期间，这笔交易至少有两次的机会可以 正式完成。然而在笔者写这篇文章的时候，这笔交易依然在不上不下的状态悬而未 决，因为大联盟官方很明显地不喜欢该交易收购款项的现金与借贷比例。 只要这一切搞定，球季开打，球员其实不会受到多大的影响。但如果这件事拖太久， 我跟你打赌这一定会开始影响球员。去年，球团没有为了追求任何一个大球员而开 出长约。虽然你不能把一切都归咎在这事情上，但球队在去年交易大限後的成绩是 29胜31负，而且很很自然地被屏除在季後赛之外。 如果没发生什麽别的意外，全新的经营团队应该会为球队带来新的气息，结束长达 十年不曾打入季後赛的窘境。 5. Who replaces Scott Feldman's stats when he invariably comes back to earth? 等Scott Feldman回到地球，谁来补上他去年带给球队的贡献? Feldman essentially came out of nowhere last year to register 17 wins and post a 4.08 ERA, which was second only to staff ace Kevin Millwood. A solid minor league reliever, Feldman converted to starter in 2008 and put up the kind of numbers you'd expect from someone who strikes out only a few more than he walks: 6-8, 5.29 ERA. It's hard to imagine Feldman's sudden success of a season ago will prove permanent. Assuming some backslide, combined with the loss of Millwood, the Rangers could certainly use another arm to fill that void. 去年，Feldman就这麽冒出来然後留下17胜、自责分率4.08的成绩。他的自责分率 4.08更是仅次於球队一号先发Kevin Millwood(3.67)的球队第二佳。Feldman在小 联盟是一名稳定好用的後援投手，在2008年才转任先发投手，而那年的成绩是那种 「夺三振只比四死球多一点点」的投手能拿到的典型成绩: 6胜8败，自责分率5.29。 像Feldman这种投手，你很难想他去年的成功能够持久。假设他的表现下滑，加上 Millwood的离队，游骑兵确实需要再找一名投手来填补投手战力的空缺。 It would appear the Rangers are hoping another converted reliever will be the answer. C.J. Wilson has been starting this spring and there's some reason for hope. Although he hasn't started since his rookie season, Wilson did make 70 starts during his minor league career. Last year was easily his best as a major leaguer: He struck out 10.3 batters per nine innings and fared reasonably well against batters from both sides of the plate. On the Rangers website, Wilson is still listed as a reliever and seven other pitchers are listed as starters. Other than Harden, none of them have much of a proven track record at the major league level. Brandon McCarthy would seem to have some upside, but he's now 56 starts into his major league career and still hasn't shown much else than middling results. 游骑兵正希望另外一名曾由先发转後援的投手可以填补这个空缺，而这个任务在今 年春天就落到了C.J. Wilson身上，虽然他自从菜鸟球季就没有先发过了--Wilson 在小联盟曾先发过70场。去年是Wilson生涯表现最好的一年，他平均每九局能K掉 10.3个打者，而且不论对左打或右打都有相当好的压制力。 在游骑兵的网站，Wilson仍然被列为後援投手，而另外有7名投手被列为先发人选， 但除了Harden以外，其他人从未证明过自己在大联盟层级也能是合格的先发投手。 Brandon McCarthy似乎是这群人里比较好的，但他生涯在大联盟的56场先发，表现 得也不过是个一般般的投手罢了。 -- 这篇文章有不少地方我看不大懂，也有不少地方不大能直接翻成中文， 所以我就照我的理解写，不见得会将英文直翻，希望错误还算少。 如果有重大错误，还请板友们不吝指教，谢谢~ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.160.166.204 ※ 编辑: KennyKuo 来自: 118.160.166.204 (04/03 18:20)