※ [本文转录自 Baseball 看板 #1fevr8M8 ] 作者: Yjizz (Zz菊池大谷西舘zZ) 看板: Baseball 标题: [分享] Griffin 可能成为青少年大联盟球员 时间: Sun Mar 1 09:58:09 2026 Griffin could be a teenage big leaguer. Here's how history says that might go February 28th, 2026 Travis Sawchik https://www.mlb.com/news/konnor-griffin-teenage-debut-possibilities?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage https://shorturl.at/06p8I 30秒(春训炸裂2nd)、总教练Don Kelly, Konnor Griffin 访谈1分25秒(关於未来), milb highlight & 口白介绍1分05秒、shorts一则 Griffin 可能成为青少年(siàu-liân)大联盟选手，历史数据告诉我们结果会如何 When MLB Pipeline's No. 1 prospect Konnor Griffin launched not one, but two home runs over the replica Green Monster and out of JetBlue Park on Tuesday, social media servers seemed at risk of overheating. 当 MLB Pipeline 排名第 1 的新秀 Konnor Griffin 在周二击出不止一发，而是两发飞越 仿造「绿色怪物」墙并飞出 JetBlue Park 的全垒打时，社群媒体的伺服器似乎快要当机 了。 Enthusiasm was already elevated for the 19-year-old Pirates shortstop, and performances like that will continue to push the hype machine into overdrive. If there are more such feats this spring, it will become increasingly difficult to keep Griffin off the Opening Day roster if making a merit-based decision. 人们对这位 19 岁的海盗队游击手早已展现极高期望，而这样的表现将持续让炒作机器进 入超速运转状态。如果今年春训还有更多这类壮举，那麽在以实力为导向的决策下，要将 Griffin 排除在开幕战名单之外，将变得越来越难。 The ninth overall pick from the 2024 Draft is expected to debut at some point during the 2026 season, but it could happen before his 20th birthday arrives on April 24. How many 19-year-olds have made the jump in recent years? What can reasonable expectations be for the most precocious talents, especially when the gap between the Majors and Minors is as large as it's ever been? Let ’s explore. 这位 2024 年选秀会的第九顺位新秀，预计会在 2026 年赛季的某个时间点初登场，但这 很可能就在他 4 月 24 日满 20 岁生日之前。近年来有多少 19 岁球员能完成这种跳跃？ 对於这些最早熟的天才，我们该抱持怎样的合理预期？尤其是在大联盟与小联盟之间的实 力差距达到史上最大的现在。让我们来探索一下。 Over the past 40 years, there have been 18 position players to debut as teenagers. Reaching the pinnacle of baseball at an age when many are freshmen in college is an incredible feat. The list is loaded with four Hall of Famers (Ken Griffey Jr., Adrian Beltré, Iván Rodríguez, Andruw Jones), a 696-homer shortstop in Alex Rodriguez and a number of MVP winners, including Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. 在过去 40 年中，共有 18 位野手以青少年身份初登场。在许多同龄人还只是大学新鲜人 的年纪，就达到棒球界的巅峰是一项惊人的成就。这份名单中包含了四位名人堂成员 （Ken Griffey Jr.、Adrian Beltré、Iván Rodríguez、Andruw Jones）、击出 696 支全垒打的游击手 Alex Rodriguez，以及多位 MVP 得主，包括 Bryce Harper 和 Mike Trout。 A teenage debut is often indicative of a special career trajectory. But there's just one catch: Not everyone from this incredible list was a star immediately. In fact, the majority are not. 青少年时期的初登场通常预告着一段特别的职业生涯轨迹。但这值得注意的是：这份惊人 名单中的成员并非每个人都能立即成为球星。事实上，大多数人都无法兑现。 The average debut year OPS+ of these rare teenagers is 75, meaning they are about 25% below MLB-average offensive performance when adjusting for ballpark and run-scoring environments. 这些罕见的青少年新秀在初登场年份的平均 OPS+ 为 75，这意味着在考量球场及得分环境 调整後，他们的进攻表现比大联盟平均水准低了约 25%。 The performance improved when we filtered those teenage debuts to a group that received at least 200 plate appearances, suggesting they at least treaded water at the Major League level. Those eight players combined for a 98 OPS+, or just about league-average performance. This suggests initial expectations likely ought to be tempered for Griffin. 当我们将范围缩小到这些青少年初登场中，获得至少 200 个打席的群体时，表现有所提升 ，显示他们至少在大联盟层级站稳了脚跟。这 8 位球员合计交出了 98 的 OPS+，几乎接 近联盟平均水准。这表明对 Griffin 的最初预期可能应该有所保留。 So, curb our collective enthusiasm, right? Well, perhaps not. 所以，我们应该浇熄大众的热情吗？嗯，或许不必。 If we refine our search down to teenagers who reached 400 plate appearances in their first full season since 1986, that's where things become interesting. Griffin could reach that threshold if he debuts early and shows he belongs at the highest level. 如果我们进一步筛选自 1986 年以来，在第一个完整赛季中达到 400 个打席的青少年球 员，事情就变得有趣了。如果 Griffin 尽早初登场并证明自己属於最高殿堂，他也能达到 这个门槛。 It's a short, elite list: Harper, Griffey, Juan Soto and Edgar Renteria. That includes a Hall of Famer (Griffey), a two-time MVP (Harper), a six-time Silver Slugger through age 26 (Soto) and a five-time All-Star and World Series hero (Renteria). 这是一份精简又精锐的名单：Bryce Harper、Ken Griffey Jr.、Juan Soto 和 Edgar Renteria。其中包括一位名人堂球员（Ken Griffey Jr.）、两届 MVP（Bryce Harper）、 26 岁前就拿过六次银棒奖的球员（Juan Soto），以及五次入选全明星的季後赛英雄 （Edgar Renteria）。 They averaged a 118 OPS+ in their teenage debut seasons. Harper hit 22 homers with a .270/.340/.477 slash line. Soto posted a .406 OBP. Griffey slashed .264/.329/.420 with 16 homers and 16 steals. 他们在青少年初登场赛季的平均 OPS+ 为 118。 Harper 击出 22 支全垒打，打击三围为 .270/.340/.477；Juan Soto 缴出了 .406 的上垒率（OBP）；Ken Griffey Jr. 的打击三 围则是 .264/.329/.420，并有 16 支全垒打与 16 次盗垒。 If Griffin is a true superstar talent, perhaps those ought to be his select comps. Harper and Griffey were No. 1 overall picks in the Draft and viewed as generational prospects. Soto was an uber prospect. Many are pinning similar lofty projections on Griffin. 如果 Griffin 是真正的超级巨星天才，也许这些球员才是他该被对比的对象。Bryce Harper 和 Ken Griffey Jr. 当年都是选秀状元，被视为百年一遇的新秀；Juan Soto 也是 顶级球员。许多人正将同样崇高的评价投射在 Griffin 身上。 If we assume Griffin is more like those names as a No. 1 prospect -- he's certainly an elite athlete, having even featured on "You Got Mossed" as a ninth grader -- then he could potentially be an impact player right now. And he does not even have to be a star to help the Pirates in his first season. If he's a league-average bat at shortstop, he would be a major impact player for the club -- as it would be for most clubs in the league. 如果我们假设身为排名第 1 新秀的 Konnor Griffin 更接近上述这些名字──他无疑是 一位菁英运动员，甚至在九年级时就曾在《You Got Mossed》节目中亮相──那麽他现在 就有潜力成为一名具影响力的球员。而且他甚至不需要成为超级巨星，就能在他第一个赛 季帮助海盗队。如果他在游击手位置上能提供联盟平均水准的打击，对球队来说就将是一名 极具影响力的球员──对联盟中大多数球队来说也是如此。 While the Pirates have upgraded their lineup, they produced just one above-average qualified hitter last season. Griffin might be one of their very best hitters right now. 虽然海盗队已经升级了他们的打线，但去年他们全队仅产出一名符合规定打席且表现优於 平均的打者。 Griffin 现在可能就已经是他们阵中最好的打者之一。 But what gets really exciting is Year 2, and perhaps getting to Year 2 as quickly as possible. For players debuting as teenagers since 1986, and who played in the following year, they increased their OPS+ on average of 18 points -- or nearly a 20% improvement. 但真正令人兴奋的是第二年，以及如何尽快进入第二年。自 1986 年以来，对於那些在青 少年时期初登场并在隔年继续参赛的球员，他们的 OPS+ 平均提升了 18 点──这几乎是 20% 的进步。 (Note: The analysis of sophomore seasons did not include B.J. Upton and Wilson Betemit, who did not play in the Majors as 20-year-olds after debuting as 19-year-olds. Nor does it include Karim Garcia, who logged one plate appearance in the following campaign.) （注：这项关於二年级赛季的分析不包括 B.J. Upton 和 Wilson Betemit，他们在 19 岁 初登场後，20 岁时并未在大联盟打球；也不包括 Karim Garcia，他在随後的赛季中仅记 录了一次打席。） Those who reached at least 200 plate appearances in their second season averaged a 106 OPS+, mostly as 20-year-olds. 那些在第二个赛季达到至少 200 个打席的球员，平均 OPS+ 为106，且当时大多仅 20 岁 。 Harper (133 OPS+), Soto (142 OPS+) and Griffey (136 OPS+) did much better than that and posted some of the best 20-year-old seasons on record. After struggling as a 19-year-old, Mike Trout went on to have the best season ever in terms of WAR (10.2) by a 20-year-old in 2012, elevating to a superstar level of play he would sustain for the remainder of the decade. Harper（OPS+ 133）、 Soto（OPS+ 142）和 Griffey （OPS+ 136）的表现远优於此，并创 下了历史上最顶尖的 20 岁赛季纪录。在经历了挣扎的 19 岁赛季後，Mike Trout 在 2012 年以 20 岁之龄创下了史上最高的 WAR（10.2）纪录，提升到了他在该年代剩余时间里持 续保持的超级巨星水准。 It raises the question of whether rare talents should spend more time in the Minors to refine their abilities and reduce the chance of severe struggles. Or, should they be thrown in the deep end that is facing Major League pitching and work through any adjustment period while in the bigs. 这引出了一个问题：稀世天才是否应该在小联盟待更长时间以磨练能力，并降低遭遇严重挫 折的机率？或者，他们应该直接被扔进面对大联盟投手，在大联盟期间度过任何适应期？ If Griffin debuted on Opening Day, he wouldn't quite arrive as quickly as Robin Yount, who made it up after only 64 Minor League games, after being drafted out of high school by the Brewers as a teenager in 1973. He made the Opening Day roster in 1974 to begin a Hall of Famer career. Griffin's arrival wouldn't be that fast, but it would be a blur of a journey to the Major League level. 如果 Griffin 在开幕战初登场，他的晋升速度还不及 Robin Yount。後者在 1973 年以青 少年身份被酿酒人从高中选中後，仅打了 64 场小联盟比赛就升上去了。他在 1974 年进 入开幕战名单，开启了名人堂生涯。Konnor Griffin 的到来不会那麽快，但对於通往大联 盟层级的旅程来说，这也将是一段极速的航程。 Griffin has totaled only 563 plate appearances as a professional, including none in Triple-A and just 98 in Double-A. An Opening Day assignment seems aggressive. But in speaking to one assistant general manager, his preference for an elite prospect is the latter path, the more aggressive approach. Griffin 作为职业球员总共只有 563 个打席，其中在 3A 为零，在 2A 也仅有 98 个。排 入开幕战名单似乎过於激进。但在与一位副总经理（Assistant General Manager）交谈时 ，他对於顶级新秀的偏好是後者，也就是更激进的做法。 "They are best developed when they see the most challenging pitching they can," the assistant GM said. "They tell us when it’s time to go up. Defense and [fundamentals] can be learned at any level. I don’t think it is prudent to keep them in the Minors unchallenged. I think that is not developing a guy." 「当他们面对最具挑战性的投手时，开发效果最好，」这位副总经理（Assistant GM）表 示。「他们会告诉我们什麽时候该升上去。防守和 [基本功] 在任何层级都可以学习。我 不认为让他们留在没有挑战的小联盟是明智的，我认为那不是在培养球员。」 After all, how can one truly get better against Major League pitching if they are not facing Major League pitching? All top prospects are eventually going to have to do that, so why not start the process? 毕竟，如果不面对大联盟投手，一个人要如何真正针对大联盟投球表现得更好呢？所有顶 级新秀最终都必须面对这一点，那麽为什麽不现在就开始呢？ Perhaps it also accelerates their development. Harper's best season came when he was 22, in 2015, when he won the NL MVP after bashing a career-high 42 homers. In his third season, Griffey was a 7-WAR player. Soto produced a career-best 202 OPS+ in his third year, albeit the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. Those three were full-fledged superstars by 22, and perhaps that doesn't happen without accelerating timetables and development at the big league level. 或许这也能加速他们的成长。 Harper 表现最好的一个赛季是在他 22 岁时（ 2015 年），当时他轰出职业生涯最高的 42 支全垒打，并赢得了国联 MVP。Ken Griffey Jr. 在第三个赛季，他已是一名 WAR 值达到 7 的球员。Juan Soto 在他的第三年交出了 生涯最佳的 202 OPS+，尽管那是受疫情缩短的 2020 年赛季。这三个人在 22 岁时都已是 名副其实的超级巨星，而如果不加速在大联盟层级的时间表与开发，这或许就不会发生。 But there are differing viewpoints. 但目前仍存在不同的观点。 "It feels like the [Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI)] stuff has changed the attitude from, 'Keep him down for a bit and make sure they never go back,' to 'Let’s see if he can hang, and if not, we send him down,'" said another assistant GM. "I think the hype for these young guys like [Jackson] Holliday and [Anthony] Volpe can sometimes be a bit much and people expect too much at a young age. 「感觉像是 [新秀推广奖励机制 (PPI)] 改变了态度，从『先让他待在下面一阵子，确保 他们上来後永远不会再下去』，转变成『让我们先看看他能不能撑住，如果不行，我们再 把他送下去』，」另一位副总经理（Assistant GM）表示。「我认为对於像 Jackson Holliday 和 Anthony Volpe 这些年轻球员的炒作有时有点过头了，人们对这麽小的年纪 期望太高。」 "I’d probably lean toward a bit more Minor League time to expose any flaws." 「我可能会倾向於让他们在小联盟多待一段时间，以便发现任何缺点。」 There's another development to consider, too. Baseball America's J.J. Cooper recently documented that players who reach the Majors are spending less time in the Minors first. That's in part because there's a heavier college lean in Drafts and in part because affiliate counts have been reduced, but it’s also tied to development advancements. 还有另一个发展趋势值得考量。Baseball America 的 J.J. Cooper 最近报导，登上大联盟 的球员在小联盟待的时间越来越短。这部分是因为选秀中更偏向大学球员，部分是因为附属 球队数量的缩减，但也与开发技术的进步有关。 The game has changed a lot in recent years. One can argue it's changed more in the last decade than it had in the previous 50 years preceding it due to new technology, data and training practices that have accelerated player development, not just at the professional level but also in the amateur game. For instance, advanced pitching machines and simulators, in addition to new training regimens -- like bat speed and bat-path training -- can accelerate development. 棒球运动在近年来发生了巨大变化。有人会争论，由於新技术、数据和训练实践加速了球 员开发，过去十年的变化比之前的 50 年还要多，这不仅发生在职业层级，也发生在业余 比赛中。例如，先进的发球机和模拟器，再加上新的训练方案──如挥棒速度和挥棒轨迹 训练──都能加速球员成长。 Regardless of whether a prospect is pushed, every player who arrives to the Majors will face a sink-or-swing moment to see if they can stick. 无论一位新秀是否被提早捧出场，每一位抵达大联盟的球员都会面临不进则退的时刻，看看 他们是否能站稳脚跟。 Griffin's arrival appears like it will come sooner rather than later. And perhaps the sooner he debuts, the more that will accelerate him toward a star-level production. Griffin 的到来似乎迟早会发生，而且越早初登场，或许就越能加速他迈向球星级产出的过 程。 At some point, Paul Skenes could be opening a playoff series for the Pirates, and Griffin could be hitting near the top of the lineup. The vibes have rarely been this strong this time of year in Bradenton, Fla. 在未来的某个时刻，Paul Skenes 可能正在为海盗队在季後赛系列赛中担任先发，而 Griffin 则在打线前段打击。在佛罗里达州的 Bradenton，每逢这时节的氛围鲜少如此强烈 。 Columnist Travis Sawchik has covered MLB since 2013 with a focus on data-based analysis and enterprise reporting. ※ ※ ※ On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/on-base-plus-slugging-plus ※ ※ ※ Wins Above Replacement (WAR) https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/wins-above-replacement ※ ※ ※ That time MLB's No. 1 prospect got a shoutout from Randy Moss -- in ninth grade! https://www.mlb.com/pirates/news/konnor-griffin-was-featured-on-you-got-mossed Griffin中学时期也是多栖球员，曾经参加 ESPN节目 "You Got Mossed" ※ ※ ※ Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) FAQ https://www.mlb.com/news/prospect-promotion-incentive-faq PPI (Prospect Promotion Incentive) 是大联盟在 2022 年劳资协议（CBA）中引入的一 项新制度，主要目的是打击「操控时间」的现象，并鼓励球队让最强的顶级新秀尽早登上 大联盟。 --

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※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ※ 转录者: Yjizz (49.217.177.149 台湾), 03/01/2026 09:58:47