作者qazpoi753 (草间雨)
站内Math
标题[机统] 应该是条件机率的问题
时间Mon Feb 14 23:31:25 2011
现在确定有65%的把握确定这个嫌犯有犯案。在审办的过程中，一个证人出面指证
嫌犯有85%的机会是左撇子。假设有23%的人口数都是左撇子，而嫌犯也是左撇子
请问在获得证人的资讯後，嫌犯犯案的机率变成多少？
因为怕自己翻译的不对，所以题目原文也贴上来
A judge is 65% sure that a suspect has committed a crime. During the course of
the trial a witness convinces the judge that there is an 85% chance that the
criminal is left-handed. If 23% of the population is left-handed and the
suspect is also left-handed, with this new information, how certain should
the judge be of the guilt of the suspect?
请各位板友帮我解决这个问题
谢谢
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