看来真的要拖到2026了 来源 https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/2005670465537487040 在波克罗夫斯克方向，ISW 观察到近期公开来源的证据，评估认为乌克兰军队在罗丁斯克保 持存在，而俄罗斯军队在米尔诺赫拉德不到一半的区域内活动。 12月28日发布的地理定位影片显示，乌克兰军队在罗丁斯克北部活动，显示乌克兰军队仍具 备在该定居点开展行动的能力。 12月27日发布的地理定位影片显示，俄罗斯军队近期在米尔诺赫拉德北部推进。 12月27日 发布的另一段地理定位影片显示，俄罗斯军队在米尔诺赫拉德北部和罗丁斯克中部多个地点 升旗。 ISW 评估认为，这些行动是俄罗斯的渗透行动，但并未改变地形控制或战区前缘（F EBA）。 ISW 仅观察到证据表明，俄罗斯军队（透过渗透行动或进攻）在米尔诺赫拉德49%的区域内 存在。 12月27日，乌克兰总参谋部驳斥了俄罗斯关於占领米尔诺赫拉德的说法，并指出俄 军尚未占领波克罗夫斯克——尽管俄军已在波克罗夫斯克市内作战近150天。乌克兰空降突 击部队第7快速反应军也於12月28日报告称，乌克兰军队在波克罗夫斯克北部地区保持阵地 。 In the Pokrovsk direction, ISW has observed recent open-source evidence to asses s that Ukrainian forces maintain a presence in Rodynske and that Russian forces have operated within less than half of Myrnohrad. Geolocated footage published on December 28 shows Ukrainian forces operating in northern Rodynske, indicating that Ukrainian forces maintain the ability to oper ate in the settlement. Geolocated footage published on December 27 indicates that Russian forces recent ly advanced in northern Myrnohrad. Additional geolocated footage published on De cember 27 shows Russian forces raising flags at multiple locations in northern M yrnohrad and central Rodynske during what ISW assesses were Russian infiltration missions that did not change control of terrain or the forward edge of battle a rea (FEBA). ISW has only observed evidence indicating a Russian presence (either through inf iltration missions or assaults) within only 49 percent of Myrnohrad. The Ukraini an General Staff on December 27 refuted the Russian claims of the seizure of Myr nohrad and noted that Russian forces have yet to seize Pokrovsk – even as Russi an forces have notably been fighting within Pokrovsk itself for almost 150 days. The Ukrainian 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Air Assault Forces also reported on December 28 that Ukrainian forces maintain positions within northern Pokrovsk . 让普丁当着全国丢脸的 库皮扬斯克 https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/2004044430714737003 更多：与克里姆林宫有关的军事部落客承认乌克兰在库皮扬斯克方向取得了重大胜利，并批 评克里姆林宫和俄罗斯军方指挥部提供虚假的战场报告。 俄国军事部落客广泛批评克里姆林宫和俄罗斯军方指挥部在库皮扬斯克发布的虚假和夸大声 明，这进一步暴露了俄罗斯正在进行的认知战努力——旨在将乌克兰防御描绘成濒临崩溃， 并将俄罗斯在战场上的重大胜利描绘成不可避免的——与战场现实不符。 俄罗斯军事部落客也承认，俄罗斯在库皮扬斯克的失败表明，俄罗斯没有足够的人力物力在 短期内击败「要塞带」北部，同时在其他地区继续发动攻击。 ISW近期评估认为，由於同时进行多方向攻势需要耗费大量人力物力，俄罗斯军队很可能难 以维持克里姆林宫所期望的多线进攻。 俄罗斯试图在「要塞带」地区发动进攻，很可能会进一步消耗其资源，因此俄罗斯可能需要 降低其他前线地区的优先级，以便将更多兵力集中到「要塞带」地区。 因此，克里姆林宫在谈判中要求乌克兰割让顿内茨克州未被占领的地区，其目的可能是为了 节省俄罗斯的人员和物资资源，并可能使俄罗斯在未来更有利於再次入侵，从而实现普丁控 制整个乌克兰的长期战略目标。 MORE: Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers are acknowledging significant Ukrainian suc cesses in the Kupyansk direction and criticizing the Kremlin and the Russian mil itary command for providing false battlefield reports. The widespread milblogger criticism of the Kremlin’s and the Russian military c ommand’s false and exaggerated claims in Kupyansk further exposes how the ongoi ng Russian cognitive warfare effort, which aims to paint Ukrainian defenses as o n the verge of collapse and major Russian battlefield victories as inevitable, d oes not reflect the battlefield realities. Russian milbloggers also acknowledged that Russia’s failures in Kupyansk indica te that Russia does not have sufficient manpower or materiel to imminently defea t the northern part of the Fortress Belt while simultaneously continuing offensi ve operations elsewhere. ISW recently assessed that Russian forces will likely continue to struggle to ma intain the Kremlin’s desired multi-pronged offensives in different directions d ue to the long-term materiel and manpower costs of these simultaneous operations . Russian efforts to start the battle for the Fortress Belt will likely further st retch Russian resources, and Russia will likely need to deprioritize other front line sectors in order to concentrate even more forces to the Fortress Belt area. The Kremlin is therefore making demands in negotiations that Ukraine cede the un occupied parts of Donetsk Oblast, likely in order to save Russia the personnel a nd materiel resources and possibly to put Russia in a more advantageous position to re-invade in the future to pursue Putin’s longer-term strategic goal of con trolling all of Ukraine. ______ 一个波村/红军村 三面包围 打了一年拿不下来 一个库皮 进村後还被乌贼反推 先猜推文说ISW不可信(苦笑 晚点有空再来发个俄方消息好了 普丁:我2025就要两个村而已 不过分吧？这也做不到？ 我有要你三天打下基辅吗？ (设计对白） --

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