作者pneumo (超☆冒险盖)
看板NBA
标题[情报] James Harden如何持续攻击Steph Curry?
时间Thu Mar 14 00:08:26 2019
来源: ESPN
网址:
http://tinyurl.com/y58j8lpb
How James Harden relentlessly attacks Steph Curry
James Harden如何持续不断的攻击Steph Curry
Wednesday night marks the 18th time the Golden State Warriors and Houston
Rockets have squared off since 2016-17, and looking back at the data from
those games provides a fascinating glimpse into one of the NBA's most
high-profile matchups: James Harden vs. the Warriors' defense.
星期三的火勇战会是2016-17赛季以来水火不容的两队的第18次碰面,而若是回顾过去双方
交手的统计资料,经过分析後有了有趣的结果,所以就来看一下NBA最刺激的对决:
James Harden vs勇士的防守
The Rockets love to isolate Harden, but when they play Golden State, it's
more accurate to say that they love to isolate him against Stephen Curry.
Over the past three seasons, nobody has switched onto Harden as much as
Curry, and that's no accident.
火箭很爱让Harden单打,但是当他们面对勇士时,更正确的说法是他们很爱让Harden去单
打Stephen Curry。在过去三季,没有人在换防後去守Harden比Curry更多了,而且那并不
是凑巧。
Aside from splashing all those 3s, the defining trait of the Warriors dynasty
might be the tendency to switch defensive assignments. The Rockets try to
exploit that tendency by hunting and isolating mismatches more than any other
rival.
勇士除了那如浪花般扑天盖地的三分球外,另外一个特色就是他们会做换防补位。火箭则
是利用勇士换防补位,找出比其他队伍来的多的多防守错位後单打。
Look at the switching data from last season's epic seven-game series in the
Western Conference finals. It's clear which defender Harden and the Rockets
were targeting:
来看一下去年西冠7战的统计资料,很明显的可以看出Harden跟火箭是在针对谁:
2018 West Finals: Defending Harden
DEFENDER(防守者) SWITCHES(换防)
Stephen Curry 83
Kevon Looney 26
Draymond Green 24
Jordan Bell 23
Klay Thompson 5
Nick Young 5
Curry switched onto Harden as many times as the next five Warriors combined.
Why? Because it works. The numbers are staggering.
Curry换防去守Harden的次数比其他五个勇士球员加起来的总数还要多,为什麽呢?因为有
用,数据就是这麽惊人。
Dating back to the 2016-17 season, more than 5,000 unique NBA player duos
have matched up at least 100 times. But within that massive sample, Harden
vs. Curry produces the most extreme stats.
从2016-17球季到现在,超过100次防守对决以上的话,总共有约5000对球员组合,而在那
5000多个组合,Harden vs Curry这组合的数据非常惊人。
Lest you think I'm exaggerating, consider these four factoids, via Second
Spectrum tracking:
看看下面四个状况数据:
‧No other matchup elicits a higher usage rate by the offensive player
‧No other matchup is more likely to include a drive
‧Only three other matchups produce free throws at a higher rate
‧Only six other matchups yield more points for the offensive player
‧没有其他的组合攻击方对防守方的球员使用率比Harden-Curry组高
‧没有其他的组合攻击方会运球切入比Harden-Curry组高
‧只有三组其他的组合比Harden-Curry组有更多的罚球比率
‧只有六组其他组合攻击方得分比Harden-Curry组多
Out of more than 5,000.
5000多组里面就是他们这组。
Harden vs. Curry is the wildest analytical matchup in the NBA, especially
when you consider the stakes involved. After all, these are two MVPs and
scoring champs battling for Western supremacy.
Harden vs Curry是NBA里最让人兴奋值得分析的组合,尤其考虑到整个NBA受到他们影响的
层面。毕竟,这两位都是MVP,都是得分高手,都为了登上西区巅峰。
When you compare Harden's key matchup numbers with other Golden State
defenders, you quickly understand why Houston designs sets to target Curry:
而当去比较Harden跟勇士主要球员的对决时,更可以了解为何Harden设计好要打点Curry:
Harden Vs. GSW (2016-17 To Present)
DEFENDER USAGE RATE DRIVE RATE FT RATE POINTS
(防守者) (使用率) (切入率) (罚球率) 得分
Stephen Curry 50.7 43.0 20.7 54.1
Draymond Green 36.4 21.0 4.8 33.3
Kevin Durant 34.1 15.9 6.5 37.0
Klay Thompson 26.5 20.4 5.9 27.9
Andre Iguodala 25.7 20.0 9.7 17.2
Harden is much more aggressive and much more fruitful against Curry than
against any other Warriors player. His usage rate surges to 50.7 -- right
around the average for an NBA Jam game, but a cartoonish number for any
real-life environment.
Harden对上Curry,比起对上其他勇士球员,显得更有侵略性,结果也比较好。他的使用率
高达50.7趴,差不多是电动NBA Jam的平均数字,但是对於真正的比赛来说,是高的不可思
议。
With Curry on him, Harden is more than twice as likely to drive the ball to
the hoop and get to the free throw line.
当Curry守Harden时,Harden比起对上其他勇士球员有两倍以上机率可以切入上篮或是上罚
球线。
影片支援:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1001296487240945664
The other guys in that table are either strong enough or long enough to
dissuade Harden's aggression, but Curry is slight and short compared to his
teammates, and he is much less able to slow Harden's rim attacks.
其他勇士球员相较Curry来说,比他高或手长,较可以抵挡Harden的侵略性,也因此Curry
比较没办法挡下Harden攻击篮框。
While it's tempting to interpret these data as indictments of Curry's
defense, there's something else happening here. It just so happens that all
of the other defenders in that table are world-class, and Houston's tendency
to isolate and attack Curry at freakish rates says just as much about its
respect for those other dudes as it does about Curry. Isolating Curry isn't
Houston's best choice, it's really the Rockets' only chance.
当然解读这数据很让人感到刺激,似乎可以当作Curry防守不佳的证据,但是,这数据里还
藏了别的东西。因为刚好这表里面的其他防守者都是一等一的,而火箭挑Curry单打奇高的
比率其实也是其他队伍对Curry做的事是一样的。单打Curry不是火箭最好的选择,而是唯
一的选择。
Watching the Rockets these days is an exercise in repetition. They love to
isolate Harden over and over and over. But against Golden State, that
bread-and-butter tactic really makes sense only against Curry or the
Warriors' slower bigs such as Kevon Looney. Plus, when Curry is defending
Harden, that means dudes such as Andre Iguodala, Kevin Durant and Klay
Thompson are busy stifling Houston's secondary scorers, further establishing
Harden vs. Curry as the best option available.
最近看火箭打球像是不断的重复,他们就是爱不停让Harden去单打。而当面对勇士时,最
好的攻击策略当然是打Curry或是勇士动作较慢的大个子像是Kevon Looney。在加上,当是
Curry在守Harden的时候,这代表了其他球员像是Andre Iguodala,Kevin Durant跟Klay
Thompson正在忙着压制火箭的第二轮得分守,那就让Harden vs Curry这样的策略显得是最
佳选择了。
More than any other defender he faces in the NBA, Harden sees Curry as a
pathway to points. Even though Harden averages 48 points per 100 possessions,
that number fluctuates a ton depending on the defender, according to Second
Spectrum data. Thompson holds Harden to 20 fewer points when he is the
primary defender. But against Curry, Harden surges. In the 2018 playoffs,
Harden poured in 58 points per 100 possessions against Curry, and a
disproportionate amount of those points came from the free throw line.
相较Harden面对NBA里面其他的防守者,Harden把Curry视作得分的方式。Harden每100次球
权,平均得分是48分,在面对不同防守者的状况下会有些起伏。根据Second Spectrum的资
料,若Klay Thompson是主要防守Harden的人的话,Harden得分会下降近20。但是若是
Curry防守他的话,分数就飙高了。在2018年季後赛,每100次球权对上Curry防守,Harden
可以得到58分,而且有不成比例的得分来自於罚球。
图片支援:
https://imgur.com/vN4ZyiV.jpg
Over the past three seasons, Harden has matched up against 42 individual
players at least 100 times, but none results in free throws as frequently as
the Curry showdown, per Second Spectrum. Of that group of Harden defenders,
Iguodala has done the best work against The Beard, holding him to 17.2 points
per 100 possessions on a 21.0 effective field goal percentage. Those are
atrocious numbers for Harden, but they serve as another reminder that
Iguodala is one of Golden State's most powerful defensive weapons come
playoff time.
在过去三季,防守Harden超过一百次的球员总共有42个,没有一个球员让Harden拿到像
Curry防守他时那样高的罚球数。而在那42个球员里,Iguodala是守的最好的,每100次球
权只让Harden拿到17.2分,有效命中率是21.0趴。这样的数据对Harden来说糟透了,不过
这也提醒了大家,Iguodala是勇士队在季後赛时最有威力的防守武器之一。
Still, while the numbers leave little doubt that Harden dominates his
individual matchups against Curry, basketball remains a team game. Curry
seems more than content to win the wars -- and the titles.
当然,这些数据显示Harden吃定了Curry,不过,篮球仍旧是个团队的比赛。Curry似乎仍
是信心满满会赢下比赛--以及最後的冠军。
--
今天火勇战精彩可期
--
标题 [公告] NBA 板 开始举办乐透!
4、双十 = 两队四节打完107比107进入延长赛
1F:→ ericf129 : 大家别抓我 这麽难不太可能开啦><10/10 00:17
2F:推 kenlin0105 : 开4我直接自杀 10/10 00:34
开奖结果: 双十
3F:→ kenlin0105 : 不自杀 想买乐透惹10/10 21:18
--
※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 124.218.53.71
※ 文章网址: https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/NBA/M.1552493320.A.6E3.html
※ 编辑: pneumo (124.218.53.71), 03/14/2019 00:09:13
4F:推 wakayama : 买买买 03/14 00:09
5F:推 sweetgold : 也是他们两个本来就是好朋友,互相够熟悉对方的打法 03/14 00:12
6F:推 aaron97 : 忍术胡须搔痒之术 03/14 00:12
7F:→ sweetgold : 胡子进NBA前最好的朋友就DDR,进NBA後就Curry 03/14 00:13
8F:推 NewShiisDog : 如果是挑嘴绿大概5个回合就伤退了吧 03/14 00:14
9F:推 BoYuYou : 胡子最近几场命中率满糟糕的 03/14 00:14
10F:推 dark0224 : 这是四打一当然不公平 03/14 00:15
11F:→ Aggro : 当然是挑相对弱的小後场打阿= = 这很正常吧 03/14 00:17
12F:推 roger2623900: Iguodala超猛 100次球权才17.2分 03/14 00:17
13F:推 EQUP : 胡子的切入Curry跟不上 所以只能犯规 03/14 00:18
14F:推 jtch : 最爱吃咖哩饭 03/14 00:18
15F:推 EEzionT : 一估达啦真的强 03/14 00:18
16F:推 Harrison1814: 7楼有创意XD...所以说去年为什麽小AI缺阵对勇士的影 03/14 00:20
17F:→ Harrison1814: 响很大啊 03/14 00:20
18F:推 jyekid : 挑另外4个打 脑子可能坏掉了 03/14 00:21
19F:推 fongmcn : 换着是你难道不会持续攻击Curry? 03/14 00:23
20F:推 Q12345Q : 挑一个吃的话 选Curry很合理啊 03/14 00:23
21F:推 jyekid : 把他打成Ourry 03/14 00:23
22F:推 hsiung9 : 换下弱点勇士就稳赢了 03/14 00:24
23F:推 julian42 : 伊估身材活动的适合守胡子 03/14 00:24
24F:→ gibe : 打Curry还可以消耗他在进攻端的方面 挑他很正常 03/14 00:26
25F:推 god2 : 其他人就不是买,就Curry是买,神逻辑 03/14 00:27
26F:推 bomeiking : Push 03/14 00:28
27F:推 kkk1234 : 吃饭睡觉打咖哩 03/14 00:29
28F:推 semicoma : KD:KD也是信心满满会拿下FMVP 03/14 00:29
29F:→ IBIZA : 小AI有上也不会是他守到胡子.. 不会谁来守 胡子都会 03/14 00:31
30F:→ IBIZA : 换防到curry 03/14 00:31
31F:推 chinhan1216 : 有哪一队季後赛不是这样打嘛= =? 03/14 00:31
32F:→ IBIZA : 小AI有没有上在这个议题上没甚麽差别 03/14 00:32
33F:推 Harrison1814: 勇士也知道胡子想换防到curry,但是又不是每次都能 03/14 00:36
34F:→ Harrison1814: 成功换到curry,还是会有碰到小AI守到胡子的时候啊 03/14 00:36
35F:→ m791017 : 几乎都会这样打勇士吧@@ 03/14 00:37
36F:→ IBIZA : 中间有比例 看一下就知道了 03/14 00:37
37F:推 SS159 : Curry防守果然很烂 03/14 00:37
38F:→ IBIZA : Curry 83 三个大个子加起来73 其他人最多只有5次 03/14 00:37
39F:→ IBIZA : 也就是说AI上来也就是守这5次而已 03/14 00:37
40F:→ IBIZA : MDA是个玩到极端的教练 他要实行一个策略就会玩到 03/14 00:39
41F:→ IBIZA : 这麽极端 03/14 00:39
42F:推 Harrison1814: 可是小AI应该也不是只有守胡子才强,守到火箭其他人 03/14 00:41
43F:→ Harrison1814: 就变防守大洞吧? 03/14 00:41
44F:推 JamesHarden : 推^^ 03/14 00:42
45F:→ IBIZA : 我说这个议题上没甚麽差 其他议题要看有没有研究数 03/14 00:42
46F:→ IBIZA : 据来评论 03/14 00:42
47F:→ Harrison1814: 嗯,了解 03/14 00:42
48F:推 UzInSec : 小AI来守也会被换防到curry 03/14 00:45
49F:推 ATand : 单打咖哩的好处是消耗他的体力,让他三分软手 03/14 00:45
50F:→ IBIZA : 反正Curry有在场上就打Curry, 不在场上就打大个子 03/14 00:47
51F:→ IBIZA : 不过这也不是火箭先用的 骑士更早吧 03/14 00:48
52F:→ jason61206 : 小AI在系列赛可能的影响就是补防吧 03/14 00:48
53F:→ IBIZA : 火箭真要说就是彻底执行而已 03/14 00:50
54F:推 heavensun : MDA会派其他人拖住AI 制造Harden打Curry 03/14 00:51
55F:推 fnlily : 有没有人分析守区域的球队打火箭的数据啊?? 03/14 00:54
56F:推 CKNTUErnie : 有哪一队不挑咖哩出来打的吗 03/14 00:57
57F:嘘 WJ : 在非洲每60秒就有一分钟过去 03/14 00:59
58F:推 tfoxboy : 正常都会往队伍最矮的打吧 03/14 01:00
59F:→ IBIZA : 这篇除了讲策略 还有讲效果跟比例啊 这不统计你会 03/14 01:03
60F:→ IBIZA : 知道? 有啥好嘘的... 03/14 01:03
61F:推 s50101 : Curry防守是五星最差,只能靠进攻不要像最近如此低 03/14 01:07
62F:→ s50101 : 迷了 03/14 01:07
63F:→ nancy0803 : 某楼直接把结论归结为Curry防守很烂不太对吧 03/14 01:08
64F:推 tfoxboy : DRPM -0.48 联盟控卫四十几名吧 防守算烂也是对 03/14 01:10
65F:推 heavensun : Curry防守今年变差 可能更被各队针对打点 03/14 01:13
66F:推 matt0325 : 去年西冠真的很好看 两边主帅仙拚仙 03/14 01:30
67F:推 je31423 : 去年西冠真的好看 如果两边都没伤兵会更精彩 03/14 01:31
68F:→ je31423 : 其实火箭双卫要单打curry真的容易就换到 如果被提前 03/14 01:33
69F:→ je31423 : 换到ai 就回传另一个後卫 再叫对位curry的来挡拆 03/14 01:34
70F:推 hank12210 : 有不成比例的得分来自於罚球 XD 03/14 01:36
71F:推 yniori : 要小心~~跟勇士打要很小心!季後赛要到了千万要小心 03/14 01:41
72F:推 Ylvis : 就抓後排的概念啊 03/14 01:48
73F:推 Diehardx : 路人GG 03/14 01:58
74F:推 st890284 : 然後去年小AI就被哈登撞伤了 是谁才该小心 lol 03/14 02:04
75F:推 hiarpu : 推翻译 03/14 02:18
76F:推 King5566 : Harden如何持续冲击Curry %%%%% 03/14 02:18
77F:推 kingianlin : Cp3去弄是怎麽受伤的啊 他太常伤自己都有点忘了 03/14 02:18
78F:→ kingianlin : 去年 03/14 02:19
79F:推 can91119 : 咖喱犯 03/14 02:25
80F:推 Ensidia : 全部队伍都会这样选择吧 16年KI那记致胜三分也是 03/14 02:34
81F:→ Ensidia : Curry防守不至於黑洞 但跟其他队友比起来的确最差 03/14 02:35
82F:→ Ensidia : 看来这也是唯一对付勇士的方法 03/14 02:36
83F:推 urinmymind : curry不要上就好啦 XD 03/14 03:11
84F:推 camouflage10: cp3对到後卫没什麽优势 他比较爱打高个 03/14 03:13
85F:推 g27834618 : 阿废话 勇士最好打就curry啊 不然你要单打谁 KD?KT 03/14 03:50
86F:→ g27834618 : ? 傻瓜都知道要打curry吧 03/14 03:50
87F:推 navysoider : 如果不是丐帮金身,哈登早就滚出 NBA了耶 03/14 05:20
88F:推 tigertiger : 傻瓜就看不出来这研究的含金量 03/14 05:30
89F:推 BigShotBob : 老美真的很爱研究数据 但不得不佩服老美采集数据的 03/14 06:52
90F:→ BigShotBob : 完整及多样性 03/14 06:52
91F:推 eternal5566 : 推 03/14 07:02
92F:推 turnpoint : 反正火箭谁被Curry守到,谁就去跟胡子挡拆让胡子可 03/14 07:32
93F:→ turnpoint : 以对到Curry 03/14 07:32
94F:推 emptie : 等一下 胡子守curry不也差不多被打假的吗 03/14 08:00
95F:→ chuanpeiyu : 骑士打勇士的方法 03/14 08:02
96F:→ ChrisPaul03 : 持续攻击上半场 下半场呢? 03/14 08:08
97F:推 joe998556 : 脑勇表示 说curry防守不好的不知道多久没看球了 03/14 08:12
98F:推 Darkbeat18 : 咖喱好吃当然现在要天天吃 03/14 08:18
99F:推 garybawbaw : 跪求鬼胡轻虐 03/14 08:21
100F:推 benboy : 其实也只有哈登对咖哩比例特别高 KI也常单打KT 03/14 08:23
101F:→ zzahoward : Curry也不是那种超级大洞 不过相较其他队友就是好打 03/14 08:33
102F:→ zzahoward : 然後JH和SC的吨位巨大差距其实让SC只能犯规 03/14 08:33
103F:推 force5566 : 全票mvp是勇士最软的一块? 03/14 08:42
104F:推 wj1009 : 打勇士就狂打curry就对了 03/14 08:42
105F:→ wj1009 : 再怎样至少也可以耗他体力 03/14 08:43
106F:推 Eric60203 : 咖哩如果学到CP3的一招半式 可能就不敢那麽猖狂罗 03/14 08:45
107F:→ shifa : 哈登 攻击♂ 咖哩,合理怀疑咖哩有大屁股 (喂 03/14 08:46
108F:推 Fanlic : 这招以前骑士就疯狂玩啊 JR/TY/Love上来挡拆後让LBJ 03/14 08:47
109F:→ Fanlic : /KI持球直接打Curry 不过对面现在有KD会错位打回来 03/14 08:47
110F:推 id41030 : 打身材的嘛 03/14 08:57
111F:推 jim986988 : 睡个笑话,全票MVP 03/14 09:01
112F:→ IamMario : 胡子:过全票mvp就像过清晨马路 03/14 09:03
113F:推 vizjeco : 挑身材小的打 要不然呢? 03/14 09:11
114F:嘘 Eddward : 没差啦 不管谁守还不是罚球 03/14 09:14
115F:→ ricky469rick: 是跟队友比起来相对比较差吧? 03/14 09:22
116F:嘘 bohanop : 数据都贴了蛹蛹还在印象 03/14 09:35
117F:推 rocklin8 : 这篇不错 03/14 09:39
118F:→ bohanop : 柯瑞防守很喜欢用手去顶人,这点可能跟他矮脚步跟 03/14 09:41
119F:→ bohanop : 不上有关 03/14 09:41
120F:推 RINsanity : 不只是防守的关系 也是消耗Curry减低他进攻端的威胁 03/14 10:05
121F:推 choosin : Curry去年就是这样被吃阿 但Curry本来就是靠攻击 不 03/14 10:06
122F:→ choosin : 然当年FMVP也不用给AI了... 03/14 10:06
123F:推 will1118 : 抓到了,Harden Curry 互刷数据 03/14 10:15
124F:→ theorton : 小ai防他们那麽好去年还妄想CP3没受伤就能赢勇士真 03/14 10:16
125F:→ theorton : 是搞笑 03/14 10:16
126F:推 chigi : 而且有不成比例的得分来自於罚球。 一分海下起来 03/14 10:50
127F:推 iandol : Harden遇到咖喱身材优势真的很大,不只能有效得分, 03/14 11:33
128F:→ iandol : 要是能多买几犯让咖喱有犯规麻烦那更是大赚特赚 03/14 11:33
129F:→ gomi : 这我阿骂都知道 03/14 11:49
130F:→ hhttp : 我阿骂也知道 不然你要单打谁? 03/14 12:50
131F:嘘 jhihheng : 还是0冠的咖 03/14 12:59
132F:推 pipi7878 : 爱丢嘎伊揽雕雕 03/14 13:19
133F:推 HFang : 忍术打点Curry之术 03/14 14:29
134F:推 iwilltry : sc粉会说他抄截很多 03/14 18:06
136F:→ keanu2110 : 好吃 03/14 19:21
137F:嘘 darkMood : 废话,看光体型就亏定了,谁叫curry不多长20公分 03/14 23:20