作者Qorqios (发文数占C洽1%强☑)
看板NBA
标题[外絮] 马刺雷霆史诗对决 教给我们关於2026选秀
时间Thu May 21 02:09:33 2026
附原文网址
https://fansided.com/nba/what-the-epic-spurs-thunder-matchup-can-teach-us-
about-the-2026-nba-draft
What the epic Spurs-Thunder matchup can teach us about the 2026 NBA Draft
/The other 28 NBA front offices should be taking notes on this series./
史诗般的马刺对雷霆对决,能教给我们关於2026年NBA选秀的事
/其他28支NBA球团的管理层应该好好从这轮系列赛汲取经验。/
♦
By Christopher Kline ♦ 6小时前
The San Antonio Spurs toppled the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 of the
Western Conference Finals, winning 122-115 in overtime to steal home-court
advantage. Many believe (rightfully) that this series is the "real"
championship duel. There simply is not an Eastern Conference team on the level
of San Antonio or OKC right now.
When it comes to the 2026 NBA Draft, there's a lot we can learn from both
teams. The Spurs and Thunder are on the younger side, with mostly homegrown
cores that are the result of great execution in recent drafts. The league is
ever-evolving, as is draft evaluation. What made a prospect special 10 years
ago might not hold weight in 2026. The league is often reacting to the latest,
greatest feat in team-building. The Warriors made every team want to play
small. Now every team wants to play big, like Denver or OKC.
Here's what scouts and opposing GMs can gleam from watching the NBA's current
heavyweights duke it out:
圣安东尼奥马刺在西区决赛G1以122比115在延长赛击败奥克拉荷马城雷霆,成功偷走主场
优势。许多人认为(这看法很合理)这轮系列赛才是真正的总冠军对决。目前东区没有任
何球队能与马刺或雷霆匹敌。
在2026年NBA选秀方面,我们可以从这两支球队身上学到很多东西。马刺和雷霆都相当年
轻,核心大多是自家培养的球员,这是近年选秀出色执行的成果。联盟一直在演进,选秀
评估方式也是如此。十年前让一名潜力新秀显得特别的条件,在2026年可能已经不再那麽
重要。联盟常常会对最新的团队建构成功案例做出反应。勇士让所有球队都想打小球,而
现在大家则想打大球,像丹佛或雷霆那样。
以下是球探与其他球团总经理从目前联盟两大强权的对抗中可以学到的:
A rookie's first contract is more important than his second contract
✂ 新秀的第一份合约比第二份合约更重要 ☑
In the past, we'd discuss "upside" in the draft through an extreme long-term
lens. The
"two years away from being two years away" lens. And while we can
still do that, the league's current collective bargaining agreement really
drives home the value of immediate contributions. There just isn't as much
flexibility on the margins for high-spending teams nowadays. Once a talented
rookie graduates to that second NBA contract, your ability to acquire depth
around them restricts. Those first and second tax aprons are dynasty killers (
see: Celtics, Boston).
The Spurs, for example, basically have their three best players — Victor
Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper — locked up on rookie contracts,
which are well below market value. That setup allows the Spurs to trade for De
'Aaron Fox (and extend him at four years, $221 million) without compromising
their depth.
OKC has reached the point where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and
Jalen Williams are all extended to lucrative contracts. How does Sam Presti
keep their depth up? Through his mountain of draft assets, which he stockpiled
diligently before the Thunder's breakout. Now Ajay Mitchell is playing
critical minutes on a rookie deal, when he's probably "worth" $30 million-plus
. Those picks also gave OKC the flexibility to acquire Jared McCain on a
rookie deal. Cason Wallace is on his rookie deal. Thomas Sorber and Nikola
Topi are on breakout watch next year. And OKC has two top-20 picks to mess
around with this summer. When it comes time to extend Mitchell and McCain, OKC
can figure it out. Maybe Presti just trades them for more picks and repeats
the process.
When the CBA makes it harder and harder to add depth in free agency to acquire
salaries via trade, the golden ticket for sustained improvement is the draft.
It's more important, now than ever, for contenders to draft well, not just
the teams tanking to the bottom. This is what separates OKC from every other
team.
过去,我们讨论选秀时常以极长远的视角去看「天花板」,也就是「还要两年才到『还要
两年』」那种。虽然这种角度依然适用,但联盟现行的劳资协议(CBA)已清楚凸显
立即
贡献的价值。对高薪球队来说,边缘操作的弹性已大幅减少。
一旦一名有天赋的菜鸟升上
第二份合约,你就很难再围绕他补强深度。第一和第二级豪华税门槛简直是王朝杀手(例
如波士顿塞尔蒂克)。
以马刺为例,
他们目前最强的三名球员——Victor Wembanyama、Stephon Castle和Dylan
Harper——都还锁在菜鸟合约,薪资远低於市场价值。这让马刺能够交易来De'Aaron
Fox(并以4年2.21亿美元续约),却不会牺牲球队深度。
雷霆则已经走到Shai Gilgeous-Alexander、Chet Holmgren和Jalen Williams全都签下
高
薪续约的阶段。Sam Presti要如何维持深度?靠着他之前在球队爆发前勤奋囤积的大量选
秀资产。现在Ajay Mitchell正以菜鸟合约打出关键上场时间,而他的身价可能已超过
3000万美元。这些选秀权也让雷霆有弹性
交易来Jared McCain,同样用菜鸟合约。Cason
Wallace也在
菜鸟合约上。Thomas Sorber和Nikola Topi明年则备受期待。雷霆今年夏天
还有两枚前20顺位选秀权可以运用。等到要续约Mitchell和McCain时,雷霆再想办法,
或许Presti直接交易他们换更多选秀权,然後重复这个循环。
当劳资协议让自由市场补强和交易薪资变得愈来愈困难时,选秀就成为持续进步的黄金门
票。现在比以往任何时候都更重要:
争冠球队必须选秀选得好,而不只是那些垫底摆烂的
球队。这正是雷霆能和其他球队拉开差距的原因。
Strength or functional athleticism — NBA guards need both, ideally
✂ 力量或功能性运动能力——NBA後卫最好两者兼具 ☑
The 2026 draft features a deep pool of smallish guards projected in the
lottery, which is odd considering the NBA's increasing emphasis on positional
size. Darius Acuff Jr. and Kingston Flemings are both under 6-foot-3 barefoot.
Labaron Philon weighs in at 176 pounds. How NBA teams navigate perceived
talent versus the unstoppable evolution of the sport will be fascinating to
watch in real time.
So what can help a guard prospect break through in today's NBA? In the case of
Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, it helps to be tall
. But there are other important qualities: burst, dexterity, and now more than
ever, strength. Physicality.
Harper took over Game 1 with seven steals and 24 points, scoring frequently
with his signature layup package. The Spurs and Thunder, really, are operating
under the same playbook. Multiple ball-handlers, all with the quickness,
shiftiness and bullish strength necessary to plant two feet in the paint. They
can all score below the rim, off of two feet, with balletic footwork and a
willingness to absorb contact.
There aren't any true analogs for San Antonio's backcourt duo (and especially
not for SGA) in this year's class, however. What's more important for teams
selecting outside the top four in the lottery will be determining which "small
" guards can hang with these jumbo, brute-force ball-handlers. Who has the
physical tools and skill package necessary to overcome perceived limitations
and survive on the floor in against a Spurs or Thunder-type opponent. Because
that will be the ultimate goal.
Flemings is my highest-ranked, non-Darryn Peterson guard prospect. He clearly
lacks ideal measurements for the modern game (6-foot-2½ barefoot, 6-foot-3½
wingspan), but he's a nuclear athlete, with the sprint speed of De'Aaron Fox,
mixed in with the lateral agility and functional, controlled vertical
explosiveness to impact plays all over the floor on defense. He can jump
passing lanes, mirror ball-handlers at the point of attack or fly in from the
weak-side to disrupt shots at the rim. On offense, if he can add just a little
bit of core strength to better hold his line on drives, Flemings is going to
create and extend advantages with ease. He's too smart and too quick, with too
much defensive equity, to fade simply because of measurements.
To me, Flemings very much belongs in the same conversations as Ajay Mitchell,
if we want a relevant point of comparison.
At the end of the day, small guards are not antiques. They aren't completely
out of fashion. There is a place in the league for Fred VanVleet or Jalen
Brunson, obviously.
2026年选秀大会有
大量身材较小的後卫被预测会进入乐透区,这在NBA日益强调位置尺寸
的趋势下显得有些特别。
Darius Acuff Jr.和
Kingston Flemings两人赤脚身高都不到6尺
3。
Labaron Philon的体重只有176磅。NBA球队要如何在「可知的天赋」与这项运动不可
阻挡的演进之间取得平衡,将是值得实时观察的精彩过程。
那麽,在当今NBA中,什麽特质能帮助一名後卫潜力股脱颖而出?以Stephon Castle、
Dylan Harper和Shai Gilgeous-Alexander为例,身高有优势当然有帮助,但还有其他重
要素质:
爆发力、灵活性,以及
现在比以往更重要的——力量与身体对抗性。
Harper在G1比赛中大发神威,拿下7次抄截和24分,频频用他招牌的切入上篮组合得分。
马刺和雷霆其实是使用同一套打法:多名持球手,都具备快速、敏捷以及强壮到能在禁区
稳稳双脚落地的能力。他们都能在篮下用两脚起跳完成得分,靠着优雅的脚步和愿意承受
身体接触。
不过,今年这届选秀并没有真正的类似圣安东尼奥後场双人组(更不用说SGA)的球员。
对那些在乐透区前四顺位之後选秀的球队来说,更重要的是判断哪些「小个」後卫
能够在面对这些身材巨大、力量型的持球攻击手时站稳脚跟。谁拥有必要的身体条件和
技术组合,能够克服被认知的限制,在对上马刺或雷霆类型对手的比赛中生存下来。
这才是最终目标。
Flemings是我排名最高的
非Darryn Peterson後卫潜力股。他明显缺乏现代比赛的理想身
材数据(赤脚6尺2.5,臂展6尺3.5),但他是一名核能运动员,拥有De'Aaron Fox般的冲
刺速度,搭配横向敏捷性和功能性、可控的垂直爆发力,能够在防守端影响全场。他可以
跳出传球路线、在第一线镜像持球人,或从弱侧飞身干扰篮下投篮。在进攻端,只要他能
稍微增加核心力量以更好地顶住对抗,Flemings就能轻松制造和延续优势。他太聪明、太
快速,防守端贡献又高,不会仅仅因为身材数据就逐渐消失。
在我看来,如果要找一个相关的比较对象,Flemings非常适合与
Ajay Mitchell放在同一
层级讨论。
归根结底,小个後卫并没有过时。他们并非完全不流行。联盟中显然还是有一席之地留给
Fred VanVleet或Jalen Brunson这样的人。
心得:
讲那麽多,教一下怎麽坦状元吧!
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1F:→ FatalLuna : 1+4+2 教一下啊 05/21 02:52
2F:推 sustainer123: DP类似harper吧 只是一个更能控 一个得分爆发力强 05/21 02:54
3F:推 eberts : 抽的到好顺位才有选择的权利 05/21 03:09
4F:推 love1500274 : 四年四个前四 也是一轮游 05/21 03:23
5F:推 harrybbs : ^ 2+3+4+3=签运好,但没那麽好 05/21 04:32
6F:推 ilanese : 会抽也要会养啊! 05/21 04:40
7F:→ karmel : 抽到哈波确实是蛮爽的 05/21 04:41
8F:推 turnpoint : 平平坦到状元签,前後两年可以选斑马跟旗子,偏偏 05/21 05:03
9F:→ turnpoint : 老鹰那年只能选Risacher,这就是命啊 05/21 05:03
10F:推 harrybbs : 下一篇:2026-27冠军赔率出来:雷马赛 05/21 05:08
11F:推 Livina : 凭良心说雷雷的操作还是比马刺要强,马刺签运比较好 05/21 05:26
12F:→ Livina : 雷雷继续解压缩还可以强很多年,马刺则是要用目前的 05/21 05:26
13F:→ Livina : 阵容再继续磨好几年 05/21 05:27
14F:→ Livina : 老鹰不会选也不会养,就不要浪费状元签了 05/21 05:28
15F:推 goury : Castle、Champagnie不也是养出来的吗? 05/21 05:34
16F:推 nsbgm : 哈波跟城堡真的进化太快了 都才一两年啊 05/21 05:37
17F:推 Ikaruwill : 波波:选秀 简单 抽到班马然後活着 05/21 05:43
18F:推 basarasaga : 教我们要摆烂不能只有一年 要好几年才能累积神抽量 05/21 05:51
19F:推 abcde010710 : 142抽斑马 谁会? 05/21 06:06
20F:推 bluecsky : 城堡进步太快 哈波太成熟 不然只有斑马也是独木难 05/21 06:07
21F:→ bluecsky : 支 05/21 06:07
22F:→ karmel : 城堡就确实算马刺自己有培养 选秀超小年 05/21 06:12
23F:→ karmel : 应该说都有培养 但超出预期最多的是城堡 05/21 06:12
24F:推 b54102 : 雷霆操作比较好+1 05/21 06:13
25F:→ karmel : 虽然有斑马也不需要太多神操作了XD 围绕他建队难度 05/21 06:14
26F:→ karmel : 相对比较低 规格外的球员 05/21 06:14
27F:→ karmel : 马刺盘来狐狸的操作也是蛮猛的就是了 几乎没付出甚 05/21 06:15
28F:→ karmel : 麽就拿到全明星等级的後卫 05/21 06:15
29F:推 lun8412 : 冷知识:雷霆及前身超音速从未抽中状元签 05/21 06:29
30F:→ chen5575 : 只有城堡哈坡现在也没季後赛打吧,还不是靠抽到斑马 05/21 06:46
31F:→ JKjohnwick : 证明摆烂很重要阿 05/21 06:49
32F:→ JKjohnwick : 摆烂加上神抽end 05/21 06:50
33F:→ JKjohnwick : 看看溜马还搞到被人笑,有人敢笑马刺吗 05/21 06:50
34F:→ JKjohnwick : 马刺在抽签真的天公仔,真的没话说 05/21 06:50
35F:→ JKjohnwick : 笑死怎麽会扯到老鹰呵呵 05/21 06:51
36F:→ waterfall : 溜马是自己搞自己怪谁啊! 05/21 06:53
37F:→ JKjohnwick : 溜马自己抽的烂,怪谁啊 05/21 06:54
38F:→ madokamagika: 不止签运还要年份对,这三年142你拿其他组合也打不 05/21 06:54
39F:→ madokamagika: 出这成绩 05/21 06:54
40F:→ JKjohnwick : 他学马刺直接抽状元不就好了 05/21 06:54
41F:推 julian42 : 有斑马就保底争冠 不用什麽操作 05/21 06:54
42F:→ JKjohnwick : 摆烂加神抽,经营团队强 05/21 06:54
43F:→ JKjohnwick : 不是喔,斑马要养,不能这样说喔 05/21 06:55
44F:→ JKjohnwick : 反正马刺还可以强个10年起跳没问题啦 05/21 06:55
45F:推 killerking05: 溜马自己要交易对赌的,怪谁 05/21 06:55
46F:推 crash121 : 马刺就赛啊 一坦就是大年状元跟TD那时一样 05/21 07:04
47F:推 waterfall : 溜马明明在坦,完全没有季中交易的需求,却硬要赌 05/21 07:05
48F:推 waterfall : 溜马GM基本上可以直接转去船船工作了 05/21 07:09
49F:推 ThreeNG : 未来改选秀规则的话,中状元机率最高的会变成战绩 05/21 07:09
50F:→ ThreeNG : 中段的球队 05/21 07:09
51F:→ waterfall : 船船搞密约联盟都不敢动了,送支五号签也算是正规 05/21 07:10
52F:→ waterfall : 操作了 05/21 07:10
53F:→ ThreeNG : 实力不上不下的球队最有机会从选秀大补强,太烂的 05/21 07:10
54F:→ ThreeNG : 乖乖去改善制服组能力吧( ̄▽ ̄) 05/21 07:10
55F:推 NetsFan : 有斑马跟1、2、4 也会打大球 05/21 07:30
56F:推 smaller : 照这样选 库里只能去二轮蹲 搞不好要去学中文 05/21 07:34
57F:推 nsbgm : 活塞垫底三年获得35香烟一包 溜马放轻松点吧 我们 05/21 07:37
58F:→ nsbgm : 东区没有这个好命 05/21 07:37
59F:推 Cishang : 斑马天命阴谋神抽,狐狸带刀来投,城堡就是养出来的不 05/21 07:45
60F:→ Cishang : 然去火箭你觉得养得出来? 哈波其实是靠旗子跳级不然 05/21 07:46
61F:→ Cishang : 哈波稳状元轮不到马刺 05/21 07:46
62F:推 edwinrw : 首先要抽到前4 05/21 08:02
63F:→ edwinrw : 大年认真坦,拿到基石强个10年不抽签,集气1X年准备 05/21 08:04
64F:→ edwinrw : 下个神抽 05/21 08:04
65F:嘘 WO0820 : 小牛那个旗子叫做坦? 1%机率叫做联盟做牌 05/21 08:15
66F:→ WO0820 : 马刺拿斑马叫做坦?能坦到邓肯和斑马叫做联盟亲爸爸 05/21 08:16
67F:推 yniori : 首先你要有一个乔治 05/21 08:16
68F:推 powermountai: 楼上超气,笑死 05/21 08:32
69F:→ csyang : 别再吹马刺了,好吗?今天要被虐了啦~ 05/21 08:33
70F:推 rahim : 马刺就赢在抽到斑马呀,三个主将124顺位,雷霆真正 05/21 08:37
71F:→ rahim : 抽到的好货只有Chetㄧ个 05/21 08:37
72F:→ rahim : 斑马是篮球场上的bug,如果斑马跟Chet互换的话,马 05/21 08:39
73F:→ rahim : 刺绝对被雷霆虐 05/21 08:39
74F:推 kaede0711 : 真的要年份对 平平是榜眼 勇士差一年从Mobley变成 05/21 08:45
75F:→ kaede0711 : wiseman 05/21 08:45
76F:推 m061i6 : 硬到不行城堡 05/21 08:51
77F:推 ODFans : 马刺真的是赢在斑马 新秀防守经验不足的问题全都被 05/21 08:54
78F:→ ODFans : 斑马掩盖住了 所以外围才能无忌惮地趋前 05/21 08:55
79F:嘘 WO0820 : 马刺爽到斑马 结果还有人吹三後卫很强 刺迷很爽 05/21 09:07
80F:推 antonio019 : 23跟24年状元差更多 年份真的重要 05/21 10:10
81F:→ katanakiller: 教我们躺对了就能强 05/21 10:14
82F:推 IAT518 : 运气还是需要有的 05/21 10:16
83F:推 cd928 : 我塞555 05/21 10:42
84F:推 gtq : 一直说状元SGA是状元吗?真的懒的嘴你们超云 05/21 11:09
85F:→ attdave : 球团选谁都没用 阿银选谁才是重点 05/21 13:22